Author: Gong Yue
Since Chiang Kai-shek's Lushan Talks in 1937, the Performance of the Nationalist Government in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression was much more positive than that of the September 18 Incident in 1931, and it has organized a number of large-scale battles to resist the Japanese invasion. Among them, the Battle of Songhu is the most famous because of its largest number of troops, the longest duration, and its strategic position, and more importantly, it smashed the arrogant plan of the Japanese army to occupy China in three months.
The Battle of Songhu ended with the defeated retreat of the Nationalist army and the fall of Shanghai. But if the Battle of Songhu was a victory for the Nationalist army, would it change the direction of the War of Resistance?
If the Nationalist army wins, what will be the result?
According to relevant records, the Nationalist army invested about 800,000 people in the most elite central teaching corps, 87th division, 88th division, 148 divisions and 62 brigades during the entire Battle of Songhu, and the Japanese army invested about 200,000 people in the 3rd, 6th, 9th, 11th, 13th, 16th, 18th, 101st, 114th and other 9 divisions and some brigades and support units.
We all know that the Japanese Army Divisions with the number 1-17 are the most elite standing divisions of the Japanese Army, and the Battle of Songhu has invested 6, equivalent to about one-third of the most elite units of the Japanese Army. The Central Teaching Corps and the German Mechanized Division (in fact, most of them were not fully Germanized) invested by the Nationalist Army were also the most elite units under the Nationalist government at that time. As long as the tactics are properly commanded, the national army is not without the possibility of victory.
But if the navy and air force were added, the superiority of the Japanese army would be greatly increased. Although the Nationalist Air Force did not lack excellent pilots and brave combat spirit, the gap in equipment and battle losses could not be replenished, resulting in the initial short-lived advantage gradually lost after repeated battles with the Japanese army. Not to mention the navy, the combined fleet of the old Japanese navy was a powerful navy that could face the U.S. military in the Pacific, and the largest tonnage warships of the Nationalist navy were only a few thousand tons, and the number of warships was small and old.
Judging from the situation of the three armed forces, navy, and air force, if the Nationalist army wins on the ground battlefield and defeats the Japanese army, then it should be similar to the situation in the Battle of Chosin Lake in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, that is, although the Japanese army lost on the ground battlefield, it can withdraw the remaining troops with the help of naval and air superiority, and will not be completely annihilated by the Nationalist army. It can be roughly predicted that the Nationalist army suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties after a bitter battle, causing many of the main divisions of the Japanese army to suffer too many casualties to be unable to fight again, and the Japanese army temporarily withdrew from the Battle of Songhu considering the North China Battlefield and other battlefields.
Influence on China
Shanghai, the site of the Battle of Songhu, is known as the largest city in the Far East, and foreign forces from all sides are gathered. If the Battle of Songhu really repelled hundreds of thousands of elite Japanese troops in the Songhu Campaign, it was simply a thunderclap in the midst of a wave of appeasement at that time.
However, with the attitude of the Western powers at that time, they basically did not take the initiative to come to the aid, at most the so-called "strict neutrality", Britain and France in Europe had to deal with the increasingly aggressive Nazi Germany, and the United States was still isolationist. What is more serious is that Japan's defeat in the Battle of Songhu is bound to put pressure on Germany to stop supplying German mechanic equipment, and the National Government will fall into the predicament of German ordnance depletion faster than in history.
At home, however, it will greatly encourage the enthusiasm and confidence of the people of the whole country to resist the war and strengthen their belief in victory; at the same time, although the Nationalist army suffered huge casualties, it crippled one-third of the standing main force of the Japanese army, greatly reduced the pressure on other battlefields, and won time for the relocation of industrial and mining enterprises in the eastern region and the mobilization of more national defense forces. Finally, the Soviet Union in the north, seeing the Determination of the Nationalist Government to resist the War, may begin to aid China in advance, losing German weapons but obtaining Soviet weapons can also be regarded as losing the Mulberry Yu in the East Corner.
However, we must not underestimate Chiang Kai-shek's weak and compromising nature; it is not possible to use the so-called "great victory" to ask the League of Nations to mediate an armistice with Japan, and Japan will also falsely carry out so-called "peace talks" in order to gain time to mobilize troops to launch a new offensive in order to gain a chance to breathe.
All in all, if the Battle of Songhu were to be won, it would be a major encouragement and confidence for the Chinese anti-Japanese military and people and the whole country, and it would also improve its status in the world and even win the assistance of the Soviet Union. But we must also be wary of the danger of compromise within the Nationalist government and pro-Japanese factions taking the opportunity to demand an armistice and peace talks. In any case, winning the battle is a good thing.
Influence on Japan
After the 918 Incident, the Japanese army easily occupied the three eastern provinces, so it believed that China was weak and deceitful, and even arrogant enough to clamor for "the destruction of China in three months", and the defeat at the Battle of Songhu was no less than a blow to the head, which dealt a heavy blow to the arrogance of Japanese imperialism. One-third of the elite standing army was crippled, losing Shanghai, the largest fortress of aggression against China, and losing face internationally.
However, the overall strength is still the advantage of Japan, and it can be speculated that the Japanese army will increase mobilization in the future. But will Japan therefore shift the direction of its strategic offensive and choose to attack the Soviet Union from the north or britain and the United States from the south? Judging by the situation in 1937, it should not be.
First of all, there was no war in the European theater, Germany did not go to war with Britain and France and maintained a superficial peace with the Soviet Union, in which case Japan had to take great risks, whether it was going to war with the Soviet Union alone or with Britain and the United States;
Second, Japan's own preparations are not completely complete, the army and navy have not yet fully mobilized to prepare for long-term war, and it is unwise to open a new battlefield when it has already fallen into the Chinese battlefield and has not achieved decisive results;
Finally, invading and occupying China is Japan's basic national policy, which has always been one of Japan's greatest ambitions and will not be easily changed by the defeat of one or two battles. The Japanese army lost in the Battle of Songhu, more will put away the attitude of contempt for China, in the next battle to invest more troops and more cautious, from this point of view in the future battles of the Chinese military and civilians will only be more difficult and difficult, the national army will have to face a more well prepared attack more fierce Japanese onslaught, casualties will be more heavy.
Therefore, the defeat at the Battle of Songhu would slow down the pace of attacking the Soviet Union and the colonies of Britain, the United States, and Southeast Asia, and invest more troops in decisive victories in the Chinese battlefield, such as occupying the richest middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and major cities on the main lines of communication, inducing the Nationalist government to seek peace and truce, and supporting the establishment of puppet regimes, and then considering the next step of strategy as appropriate.
An all-out invasion of China is inevitable
The victory or defeat of one or two battles will not determine the direction of the war, and the all-out war between the two countries is more of a contest of comprehensive national strength and willpower, and only the more determined and tenacious one can win. Japan is strong and small, and China is weak and large, which dooms the War of Resistance Against Japan to be a protracted and protracted war, and both the theory of quick victory and the theory of quick defeat are negative, erroneous, and one-sided views.
Therefore, it is unrealistic for the Nationalist Government to dispel Japan's idea of further aggression by winning victory in the Battle of Songhu by taking the initiative to attack, and even if the Songhu HuiguoGuo Army wins, it will only temporarily slow down the pace of the Japanese offensive, and after Japan recovers with stronger national strength, it will further strengthen the offensive and expand the war.
Whether or not the Songhu Campaign is victorious or not will not change the long-term trend of the War of Resistance, China will still adhere to the War of Resistance, and Japan will still expand the war and invade China in an all-round way. The best way to defeat the invaders is not to hope for victory in one or two battles, but to crush him completely!