Toyota Motor, which was once criticized for being conservative and backward in the transformation of electrification, has launched a comprehensive counter-offensive in the field of electrification.
A month ago, an intriguing scene occurred at MEGA WEB at mega, tokyo's Odaiba experience venue.
Akio Toyoda, who has always appeared in a low-key and humble image, at the Toyota Global Electric Vehicle Strategy Conference, unusually shouted out the slogan of "everyone is electric", with a strong thumbs, slightly stretched cheeks and a rare wide-eyed look, revealing that the 65-year-old current head of the Toyota family has finally been able to express his long-suppressed emotions.
Within a few seconds that the president of Toyota Motor Corporation pressed the curtain control button of the booth, the scene experienced a moment of unexpected silence, followed by a suppressed exclamation and warm applause.
With 16 pure electric vehicle models assembled under the curtain, Toyota Motor, which has been accused by the industry of being slow in the transformation of electrification, has shown the public with a rare radical posture that its main electrified e-TNGA platform, with a product output capability similar to the TNGA architecture of fuel vehicles, will become the technical guarantee for Toyota to achieve annual sales of 3.5 million pure electric vehicles in 2030.
The reason why it is "intriguing" stems from the fact that Toyota has always been the promoter of the diversification strategy of new energy vehicles, and Akio Toyoda has repeatedly stated that he should not blindly expand the pace of pure electric vehicles. As a result, in the month after the press conference, Toyota encountered various questions from many parties: Was the electric vehicle planning forced to rush under pressure? When will the concept car products enter the landing stage? Some voices also believe that although Toyota has accelerated the promotion of pure electric vehicles, it is still not active enough compared with some companies.
Although there are many criticisms, from December 14 to the current analysis of the stock price trend, Toyota has finally solved the capital market problems that have plagued it for 5 years and walked out of the embarrassment of Tesla's "wedding dress" in the eyes of institutional investors.
Discerning beads or marrying people
The metaphor of "marrying someone" refers to making efforts to lay out in advance, but the final result is obtained by others.
In recent years, whenever it is accused of lagging behind in electrification technology, Toyota's management has always emphasized that it launched the route exploration and comprehensive layout of electrification in the 1990s, and its technical advantages are not behind its competitors. However, in the eyes of many critics, this is a senseless justification for the old company to hold face.
The most intense and seemingly most justified criticism of Toyota's lack of pure electric vehicle strategic vision is its move to invest in Tesla's cooperation project and then withdraw its investment. This wise decision, which was once regarded by the industry as a successful opportunity to seize the opportunity of the electrification track, was ridiculed by the outside world as a wedding dress due to Toyota's emptied Tesla stock in 2016 and announced the termination of cooperation, and its own electric vehicle was also slow to develop.
However, the concentrated outbreak of more than 10 electric vehicles under the e-TNGA structure has allowed investors to once again trace the industrial status of Toyota's initial investment in Tesla and rethink the merits of Toyota's sale of Tesla shares.
Nowadays, when talking about the modern industrial process of electric vehicles, Tesla has become an unavoidable topic. A deep understanding of Tesla's development history will find that in 2010, Tesla, which experienced the founder's forced departure and was supported by Musk's painstaking support, can only be regarded as a pioneer in the small circle of the industry, and it was Daimler and Toyota, two traditional car giants, that handed out a life-saving straw to make it difficult to survive the business bottleneck of life and death.
As the world's most profitable automobile company for mass production of fuel vehicles, Toyota not only invested $50 million in support before Tesla went public in 2010, but also helped the latter overcome the difficulties of the mass production manufacturing process of automobiles through many technical transmissions.
Musk, who had not yet been named "godhead" at the time, lowered his posture, saying that he looked forward to learning and benefiting from Toyota's legendary engineering, manufacturing and production skills.
Surprisingly, Toyota, which has an absolute dominant position, has shown extraordinary attention and attention in cooperation. Akio Toyoda spoke highly of the good performance of Tesla motors and the speed at which Tesla built them. "In short, I suddenly felt a wind blowing in my face, and it was the wind from the future."
He admitted that he hopes that through cooperation with Tesla, all Toyota employees will remember the "spirit of business risk" and cultivate the ability to challenge the unknown, so as to face the countless challenges that are coming.
Nevertheless, due to the large difference in the volume of the two sides at that time, and the proportion of the investment scale of 50 million US dollars in Toyota's investment system, most people still believe that this is only a small episode of Toyota's diversified investment, and Toyota's management only expresses respect for the cooperation brother based on the unique humility of Japanese companies.
What many people overlook is that Toyota's support for Tesla is not just a capital investment, and the production plant of Tesla Model S has chosen the original site of the new Joint Engine Manufacturing Company called Numi, which was once a joint venture between Toyota and GM with an annual production capacity of 500,000 units, and was once a production line for many Toyota models.
An important piece of information is that the acquisition of Nummi Tesla only cost $42 million, which was incredibly low at the time, not to mention the various blessings of the mature production line for Tesla's manufacturing process, which confirmed Toyota's expectations for Tesla cooperation from the side.
Traditional car manufacturers and innovative electric vehicle players hand in hand, so that the dusty automotive world has opened the curtain of change, in 2012 Tesla Model S listed to become a model of high-end electric vehicles, 2016 Model 3 announcement, but also let the world sigh, electric vehicles large-scale mass production to obtain fuel vehicles the era has arrived.
At this point, the rising Tesla should have created a good story of Toyota Motor's discernment, but in 2017, Toyota's statement that it had sold Tesla shares and terminated the joint development of electric vehicles not only made the "Love of Fonte" abruptly stop, but also made itself bear the name of speculative short-sightedness for a considerable period of time.
Multiple choice questions for $30 billion and $80 billion
Even today, many Toyota-related people are still puzzled by Toyota's original decision. Whether it is from the perspective of capital needs, investment expectations, or strategic cooperation traditions, the choice to sell Tesla stock in 2016 and terminate the cooperation is "illogical".
From the analysis of capital needs, Toyota Motor's financial report in 2016 shows that global annual sales increased by 3% year-on-year, even if affected by foreign exchange rate fluctuations, operating profit and net profit are still maintained at more than 15 billion US dollars, ranking first in the world's automobile companies.
Looking at investment expectations, Tesla, which released the Model 3 plan in 2016, has become the hottest target of global capital, the stock price has risen sharply, and the sale is not a bag, but a serious step, Toyota's investment department should not have this common sense error.
At the same time, looking back at Toyota's long-term strategic cooperation style, when it terminated the joint development of electric vehicles with Tesla, it is not in line with its tradition of diversified technology layout.
So what exactly is Toyota's purpose in making such a strategic decision that seems seriously illogical to the vast majority of people?
This is actually very much like the logic of investment science, only investors who fully understand the information can grasp the real direction of the market. Similarly, only managers who have a deep understanding of the operation of a business will understand that behind the seemingly rash and wrong choices, there are all kinds of unknowable last resorts.
Now, when many people talk about Tesla's stock price, their first reaction is to be a trillion-dollar capital market star, and to estimate Toyota's investment losses — Tesla stock sold in 2016 has been worth about $30 billion.
Not to mention that this calculation method itself does not conform to the logic of investment science, even if uncertainties such as geopolitical protection are excluded, from the perspective of corporate attributes and long-term business value, the actual benefits of terminating cooperation with Tesla at that time were far greater than $30 billion.
First of all, as far as the characteristics of the automotive industry are concerned, as an important part of the industrialization system, behind the annual production and sales of tens of millions of auto companies, it is necessary to involve a set of industrial chain support, Toyota represents not only its own company interests, but also the interests of the overall value chain that supports its operation, which is the real underlying logical value of global car companies.
Secondly, as far as the capital market is concerned, Tesla can be valued at trillions of dollars, and investors value the logic of the electrified and intelligent value chain driven by it. Toyota itself is also a listed company, and it must give investors the confidence and decision-making basis to continue to hold and invest, and it is even more necessary to prove the prospect of its underlying logical value.
To put it bluntly, in the face of the industrial change promoted by Tesla, if the traditional car company Toyota chooses to continue to cooperate, it will be considered by the public and the capital market to lack technical confidence.
Toyota resolutely terminated its cooperation with Tesla in order to show investors that it still has the ability to lead in the era of electric vehicles. Only in this way can we get more support from our own industrial chain system and enhance the strategic confidence and transformation focus of the overall value chain.
In the 1 month after the global electric vehicle conference, Toyota's stock price continued to grow, and in 2022, it broke through the $200 mark, with a total market value of nearly $280 billion, and the total market value remained above $250 billion for 6 consecutive months, an increase of 50% over 2016, about $80 billion.
Between 30 billion and 80 billion multiple choice questions, the capital market gave the answer with time.
The "wedding dress" that does not exist
After Toyota released more than 10 electric vehicle products, many investors suddenly found that in terms of battery technology, Toyota was the first automobile company to start cooperation with Panasonic, and the latter was Tesla's original battery supplier, further proving that Toyota's early preparation for electrification is not without purpose.
Speaking of this, it seems that everything has been revealed, behind Toyota's choice to terminate cooperation with Tesla, in fact, it is secretly brewing electrification moves, and now it has finally accumulated.
But one question that is difficult to explain is why Toyota, with its strong electrification foundation, is worried about advancing on the ground.
The mainstream view used to be that Toyota has invested heavily in hybrid and hydrogen energy, and hybrid products are lucrative, and Japan's energy structure does not support large-scale promotion of pure electric vehicles, so there is no power for rapid transformation.
However, from the perspective of the technical iteration of Toyota's products and the development of electric vehicles at this stage, intelligent technology is more like the main reason that restricted Toyota's promotion of pure electric vehicles before.
Unlike Tesla and other new car-making forces, traditional car companies such as Toyota have very strict requirements for product safety standards and word-of-mouth due to having a large number of retained users, which also leads to their intelligent driving applications can not adopt too aggressive promotion strategies. In the value judgment of the investment field, the popularity and prospects of smart cars are much higher than those of electric vehicles.
At the same time, compared with the electrification supply chain, smart technology suppliers are strangers to the automotive industry, and mainstream technology companies are concentrated in North America and China. Further review of Toyota's history of R & D cooperation can be found that while cooperating with Tesla, Toyota has deepened its cooperation with many American technology companies, and when the cooperation with Tesla was terminated, Toyota has comprehensively accelerated cooperation with Chinese technology companies.
Combing the Toyota fuel vehicle products launched in the past two years, the iteration speed of its intelligent application has increased significantly, and then linked to the concentrated appearance of more than 10 electric vehicle products, all indicate that Toyota has made up for the shortcomings of intelligence by secretly crossing Chen Cang.
The interesting topic that has emerged now is that after reshaping the underlying logic of electrification and intelligence, is it possible for traditional car companies such as Toyota to reverse again and let Tesla and other new car-making forces become "wedding clothes"?
The author believes that this is a logical paradox that needs to be broken, and the analysis of the investment logic of the capital market shows that there are only winners and losers in the market, and the wedding dress and layout will always exist simultaneously. When standing in the perspective of promoting consumption upgrading, corporate social responsibility, and promoting industrial development, all explorations facing the unknown are the source of power for the progress of human civilization, and should not be described as a wedding dress.
To create a better today and a better tomorrow than yesterday for future generations, and a better tomorrow than today, it really requires the joint efforts of all people.