Following yesterday's article [Click review: Analysis of the overall pattern of power batteries from the dimension of battery suppliers (BYD article)], today we take a look at the current situation and way out of several square shell battery manufacturers.
According to the data analysis, the total installed capacity (passenger cars) from January to November 2021 requires 102GWh and plug-in hybrid 8.61GWh, adding up to 110.5GWh. Several second-tier battery companies that focus on square shell batteries, mainly including AVIC lithium batteries, hives, Sunwoda and Tafil (this is not unfolded, mainly WM and FAW), the overall layout is around the main key customers to do.
Figure 1 Major domestic second-tier power battery enterprises
Part 1: Demand pattern of vehicle companies
In the Chinese market, "focusing on finding customers" is the biggest way out. As shown below, this is the demand for power batteries in The Chinese market car companies, BYD and Tesla (domestic) are more than 10GWh, JAC (including Weilai) demand is 9.3GWh, and the demand for 11-20 places is from 1.9GWh-3.6GWh.
Table 1 Battery demand pattern of existing car companies from January to November 2021
Among these needs, the domestic second-tier battery companies have not entered by BYD (for their own use), Tesla, SAIC, FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, Ideal, BMW Brilliance; the second-tier battery companies have entered and the proportion is relatively high is GAC Passenger Cars, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Geely, Changan, Chery, FAW, Xiaopeng and WM.
Figure 2 The current pattern of second-line battery suppliers
Figure 3 Second-tier battery companies supply passenger car companies
Among the new car-making forces, Xiaopeng has introduced three suppliers before, and the strategy of sharing supply chain risks is still relatively successful, as shown in the following figure.
Figure 4 Battery supplier allocation of Xiaopeng Automobile in 2021
We can make a comparison between the distribution of Xiaopeng and GAC passenger cars, these two Guangdong car companies are particularly interesting, the former is based on the Ningde era to import AVIC lithium batteries, the latter after the AVIC lithium battery as the main force, in the supply shortage of time to re-import the Ningde era (follow-up joint venture construction volume).
Figure 5 Allocation of gac's passenger car currently installed capacity
I personally expect that many companies currently rely on the exclusive situation of the Ningde era, and there will be more unbundling at the end of 2023, and the proportion of battery suppliers of many car companies will be opened according to the similar situation of GAC and Xiaopeng. Of course, most auto companies still can't ignore the ability of CATL as a basic supplier to supply batteries stably.
Part 2: The development of second-line square shell battery companies
The square shell battery companies we can discuss mainly include AVIC lithium battery, Hive, Sunwoda and Tafiel.
1) AVIC lithium battery
AVIC lithium battery loading capacity of 7.5GWh in January-November 2021, this expansion rate is a need for a lot of funds. At present, it mainly relies on GAC passenger cars, and at the same time occupies a part of the share in Changan Automobile and SAIC-GM-Wuling, and the development of Xiaopeng and Zero Run has also brought great imagination.
Figure 6 Customer development of AVIC lithium battery
AvIC's current relatively big problem is still that whether it is based on the original VDA battery or the clip battery, the effect of making iron and lithium is not good, following the battery shape of the Ningde era to do iron lithium has no advantage in scale, and it needs to be converted to a short blade (laminated) process as soon as possible to continue to develop in 2022. I think that the cost pressure of AVIC lithium batteries in 2022 will be relatively large, and the technical route of AVIC lithium batteries is too similar to the Ningde era, and it is also the focus of opponents.
Figure 7 Distribution of ternary and lithium iron in AVIC lithium batteries
2) Hive Energy
Honeycomb Energy's loading volume from January to November 2021 was 2.6GWh, which gradually expanded to other customers from the first half of the year mainly relying on the Great Wall to the second half of the year, including Geely, Dongfeng, Zero Run and Hezhong (with the short-lived capital injection in the Ningde era), and the overall follow-up "not relying on the Great Wall" strategy has achieved initial success. At present, most auto companies have not clearly separated Hive Energy from Great Wall Motors, and the difference between this and "Fordy = BYD" is still relatively large, which is conducive to its expansion of customers in China.
Remarks: At present, the main direction of fodi is foreign brands.
Figure 8 Availability of hive energy
3) Sunwoda
Sunwoda's loading volume from January to November 2021 was 1.6GWh, mainly due to the relatively high volume in recent months - 5 months accounted for 82% of the whole year, and some followed Renault to Europe. Major customers include Geely, Dongfeng Liuqi, Dongfeng Motor and SAIC-GM-Wuling.
Figure 9 Major customers of Sunwoda power batteries
brief summary:
I think that second-line square shell battery companies, in the current cost situation, rely on similar technology to consider the cost of the Ningde era are disadvantages, in the era of lithium iron phosphate to change a way of playing can survive. At present, many companies have begun to seek non-road vehicles such as energy storage and construction machinery to achieve their own product shipments, and more and more (relatively small-scale power) is not included in the statistical category, but the cost can be evenly amortized.
Figure | network and related screenshots
About author:Zhu Yulong, senior electric vehicle three-electric system and automotive electronics engineer, author of "Automotive Electronics Hardware Design".
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