Volkswagen, Toyota sniper Tesla Who will become the "king" of the electric car era?

In December 2021, Toyota and Volkswagen successively formulated investment plans for the next few years, hoping to maintain their dominance in the automotive industry. According to the plan, the combined investment of the two is as high as $170 billion. "When the two largest car companies in the world decide to invest in electric vehicles, it proves that the mainstream of the future is shifting to electric vehicles," said Andy Palmer, a former nissan executive.

"Huge investments will put Toyota and Volkswagen in a better position to compete with the likes of Tesla," said Anna-Marie-Baisden, head of automotive research at Fitch, "We have always believed that traditional automakers have certain advantages over start-ups, such as scale, manufacturing experience and brand loyalty." ”

In the era of electric vehicles, which car company will become the "king"?

On the one hand, Tesla has attracted the attention of investors with its vision of next-generation cars and dominated the pure electric vehicle market; On the other hand, volkswagen and Toyota, as giants of the automotive industry, are also aware that the era of pure electric vehicles has arrived and are considering how to maintain their leading position.

In the past 2021, Toyota and Volkswagen will sell about 10-11 times more than Tesla. In December, Toyota and Volkswagen also made investment plans for the next few years, hoping to maintain their dominance in the automotive industry. According to the plan, the combined investment of the two is as high as $170 billion.

"When the two largest car companies in the world decided to invest entirely in electric vehicles, it proved that the mainstream of the future is shifting to electric vehicles." Andy Palmer, a former nissan executive, said: "The transition from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles will be faster than everyone expected."

Palmer is known as the "godfather of electric vehicles" and played an important role in the development of Nissan's pure electric model, the Leaf. In fact, many business managers are well aware that the shift from an internal combustion engine to a purely electric model may not be gradual. Just as the mobile phone industry entered the era of intelligence, Apple quickly surpassed nokia, which was once an industry giant.

Focusing on the current automotive industry, "Volkswagen and Toyota, as giants of the German and Japanese automotive industries, have behaved very differently in the way they defend their territory", Palmer said, and Volkswagen will point the finger at Tesla and choose a pure electric path; Toyota, on the other hand, insists on diversifying its energy strategy and waits for the optimal solution.

Volkswagen anchors pure electric

It was the Volkswagen Group that launched an all-out counterattack against Tesla, announcing an unrivalled electrification budget every year herbert Diess was at the helm. On December 9, 2021, Diess unveiled its biggest investment plan to date: 89 billion euros ($100 billion) over the next five years for electric vehicles and software development.

Disney often uses Tesla CEO Musk as a yardstick, so much so that he himself admits to annoying some people inside Volkswagen. Last October, at a conference attended by 200 company executives, Diess unexpectedly invited Musk to inspire Volkswagen to transition to electrification faster.

Volkswagen's initial foray into the electric vehicle market was the introduction of luxury models such as the Audi e-tron and Porsche Taycan. Last year, Volkswagen tried to open up the market with more mainstream models, the ID.3 and ID.4. "Our transformation will be very rapid, faster than the industry transformation of the past century." Dies said at Battery Day last March.

However, as of October 2021, Volkswagen has delivered about 322,000 pure electric vehicles, only half of the sales target of 600,000 vehicles. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. expect Volkswagen to sell about 450,000 electric vehicles this year, "it's not the end of the world, but it's not a reason to celebrate." ”

The good news is that by the end of this year, the Volkswagen Group's electric vehicles that share the architecture with ID.3 and ID.4 will grow to 27 models. In addition, Volkswagen's luxury electric vehicles have also achieved good results, with the Porsche Taycan selling more than the iconic 911 sports car. It is reported that Porsche will also launch more electric models, and it is expected that the popular Macan will add a pure electric version next year.

Toyota's diversification strategy

In contrast, Toyota's transition to electrification has been relatively flat. A few months ago, Toyota demonstrated a long-term strategy for future development. Toyota Motor President Akio Toyoda highlighted the Corolla Sport H2 concept car equipped with a hydrogen-fueled engine. "In the face of uncertainty, we need diversified solutions, rather than being tied to a single option," says Akio Toyoda.

"Diversity is one thing, absence is another." Four years ago, the pioneer of hybrid systems known as the Prius admitted that it was "a bit late" to launch an all-electric model. It is understood that Toyota's first electric vehicle for the global mass market is not expected to be listed until the middle of this year.

Last December, Akio Toyoda showed off 16 electric vehicles at a BEV Show on how Toyota is achieving carbon neutrality. Akio Toyoda said, "Welcome to our future showroom" and announced plans to launch 30 BEV models by 2030. This BEV Show conveys Toyota's insistence on hybrid models and hopes that hydrogen fuel vehicles that have been researched and invested for many years can be profitable and develop pure electric vehicles in parallel.

According to the plan, Toyota will invest 8 trillion yen (about 70 billion US dollars) in the development of electrification, half of which will be invested in the development of pure electric models. Toyota aims to sell 3.5 million BEV models worldwide per year by 2030, nearly double the target set seven months ago.

In addition, in early December last year, Toyota promised to sell only zero-emission vehicles in Europe by 2035; A few days later, Toyota announced that it would build the first battery factory in the United States in North Carolina with an investment of $1.29 billion. Although Toyota's onslaught deserves to be taken seriously, Volkswagen's market performance after the launch of electric vehicles also proves that the transition to electric vehicles is not so simple.

Tesla controversy continues

At a time when Volkswagen and Toyota are busy transitioning to electrification, Tesla is also expanding wildly. In 2021, Tesla delivered 936,000 vehicles, an increase of nearly 90%. Tesla plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan ($188 million) in upgrading equipment at its Shanghai plant to bring the plant's annual production capacity beyond its planned capacity of 450,000 units.

In addition, Tesla's Berlin and Austin plants are also ready to start production of the Model Y, and there is enough demand to meet the new output. Martin Viecha, Tesla's head of investor relations, recently said the delivery dates for the Model 3 and Model Y have been extended to more than half a year.

Emmanuel Rosner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, said: "With the market demand for electric vehicles significantly exceeding the production capacity of car companies, the success of electric vehicles no longer depends on orders, but on production capacity, the ability to ensure supply and the best cost, and Tesla believes that it has a considerable lead in this regard."

However, there are also views that as "new promoters" such as Volkswagen and Toyota show their fists in the new energy vehicle market, Tesla will be overthrown from the throne of the leader of electric vehicles. IHS Markit expects Tesla's market share in electric vehicles in the U.S. to fall from just over 50 percent today to 20 percent by 2025.

"The huge investment will put Toyota and Volkswagen in a better position to compete with the likes of Tesla," said Anna-Marie Baisden, head of automotive research at Fitch, "We have always believed that traditional automakers have certain advantages over start-ups, such as scale, manufacturing experience and brand loyalty." (Edited by Jiang Zhiwen, China Economic Network)