Zhitong Finance APP learned that Huaxi Securities released a new energy automobile industry research report that the delivery volume of the three top three new forces in December exceeded 10,000 vehicles, of which Xiaopeng and Ideal once again set a new monthly delivery high. The annual delivery volume of the top three new forces exceeded 90,000 vehicles, and the camp of the first echelon continued to be maintained, NIO. US)/Xiaopeng (09868)/Ideal (02015) delivered 91,000 units/98,000 units/90,000 units respectively for the whole year, +109%/+263%/+130% year-on-year, respectively.
This year, a number of new cars will be delivered to accelerate the mass production layout. In addition to the continued hot sales of existing models and the response of new models, the Xiaopeng P5 continued to climb after the start of large-scale delivery in October 2021, and sales reached 5,030 units in December. This year, the top three new forces have all entered mass production of heavy models: including ET7 and ET5 cars, WEILAI will deliver 3 new models this year to enter the volume market; Xiaopeng G9 is expected to be delivered in the second half of the year, positioning medium and large SUVs, and making efforts to brand upwards; The Ideal X01 continues the range-up route, with a larger body size than the Ideal ONE, and is expected to be delivered in the second half of this year.
In terms of investment, from the customer dimension, Tesla and new power models are faster than the iteration speed of traditional fuel vehicles, the supply chain verification cycle is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, which is expected to drive the supply chain into a period of rapid growth. Optimistic about the TBR (Tesla + BYD + Rivian) industry chain and Weilai industry chain. From the product dimension, the willingness of the whole vehicle to pile up is improved, and the incremental track of electric intelligent components is more certain, and it is optimistic about electric intelligent incremental components.
The main views of Huaxi Securities are as follows:
Analytical decisions
Latecomers accelerated to catch up with the second echelon
In terms of other new forces, according to the data disclosed by various companies: 10,127 units of The United Market, +236% year-on-year, +1.1% month-on-month; Zero run 7,807 units, +368% yoY, +38.7% QM; WM 5,062 units, +95.6% year-on-year and +0.7% q-o-q. Geely's high-end intelligent electric brand Extreme Krypton's first model 001 was listed in the second full delivery month alone, reaching 3,796 units, +88.7% month-on-month; Dongfeng's high-end intelligent electric vehicle Model Lantu Free has continued to climb sales since the start of delivery in August 2021, reaching 3,330 units in December, +192% month-on-month.
New energy of traditional car companies: latecomers accelerate to catch up and continue to narrow the gap with the new forces at the head. According to the disclosed data: in December, the Volkswagen ID family delivered 13,787 vehicles, -2.7% month-on-month, and the delivery volume exceeded 10,000 for four consecutive months. Since its official deliveries at the end of March 2021, the Volkswagen ID. family has delivered 70,625 units in 2021. GAC Aeon delivered 16,675 units, +119% y/y and +14.5% q-o-q. Full-year deliveries reached 124,000 units,+119% year-on-year.
Electrification enters the second half of the competition from 1 to N intelligent
The annual delivery volume of the top three new forces exceeded 90,000 vehicles, and all of them doubled their growth, taking the lead in the first half of the competition dominated by electrification. This year, a number of new cars will be delivered, entering the expansion stage from 1 to N:
1) WEILAI ET7 is expected to start delivery in March this year, starting at 448,000 yuan for the high-end pure electric car market. ET5 is expected to start delivery in September, the battery rental plan under the subsidy before the starting price of 258,000 yuan, carrying the power of Weilai luxury brand while accelerating the direction of the drive, the two cars in the intelligent configuration are the same level of leading level.
2) Xiaopeng flagship SUV Xiaopeng G9 will be delivered in the second half of this year, positioned higher than P7, will fill the gap in the brand's medium and large SUV products. The G9's intelligent configuration has been upgraded again, making it the first production car equipped with XPIRAT 4.0 functions
3) The Ideal X01 is positioned as a full-size SUV with a larger body size than the Ideal ONE. The power system created by the second-generation extended range platform focuses on ultra-long endurance, and compared with the ideal ONE, the X01 has also been further upgraded in terms of technology configuration.
Differentiation has become the new focus of competition among car companies, and the intelligence of new forces continues to advance: 1) intelligent driving, self-developed L4 automatic driving technology, and laser radar front-loading mass production have almost become the "standard" of new models. At the same time, Weilai and Xiaopeng are also one of the earliest car companies to implement the software charging model, building another profit growth point; 2) Intelligent cockpit, self-developed customized operating system, build the underlying ecology, and one core and multiple screens help hardware interaction and collaboration. Xiaopeng and Ideal have completed the dual listing of Hong Kong stocks, and Weilai is expected to return to Hong Kong for listing, and a new round of capital injection will help the second phase of car manufacturing start.
Electric acceleration + intelligent opening Reshaping the century-old industrial pattern The global new energy automobile industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of "electric acceleration + intelligent opening", the trillion-level market is opened, traditional car companies are actively transformed, and new car-making forces and technology Internet companies (Huawei, Baidu, Xiaomi, DJI, etc.) have accelerated their entry into the game to promote the prosperity and development of the industry.
(1) Vehicle level: In the process of rapid expansion of the industry, the head of the new power brands represented by Weilai and so on make full use of Internet thinking and select tracks to achieve a breakthrough. Although the models of new entrants such as Baidu and Xiaomi are launched late, the complete industrial chain is expected to build a latecomer advantage, and independent brands will usher in historic opportunities;
(2) Parts level: With the development of electric intelligence, the reshaping of the whole zero relationship, the domestic substitution space of independent parts suppliers is vast, and some parts and components companies with strong technical research and development capabilities are expected to rely on the Chinese market to rise as the leader of the global subdivision industry through global supporting the trend. At the same time, the entry of huawei, DJI and other technology companies will also accelerate the reshaping of the industry pattern, and the serious imbalance between the status of China's vehicle industry and the status of the parts industry is expected to be alleviated.
Investment advice
The transformation of electric intelligence will promote the great change of the vehicle business model, and the attributes of science and technology and consumption will become more and more prominent, driving valuation reconstruction, and benefiting the targets: Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile. Electric intelligence reshapes the industrial order and firmly looks at more parts. Recommended TBR (Tesla + BYD + Rivian) industry chain + WEILAI industrial chain + electric intelligent incremental components:
1. From the customer dimension, Tesla and the new forces models are faster than the iteration speed of traditional fuel vehicles, the supply chain verification cycle is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, which is expected to drive the supply chain into a period of rapid growth. Optimistic about TBR (Tesla + BYD + Rivian) industry chain and Weilai industry chain:
1) Tesla industry chain: Tesla global sales in 2021 936,000 vehicles, +88% year-on-year, the target of 2030 to reach 20 million vehicles, the accelerated growth of sales to drive the performance growth curve of industrial chain companies to become steeper, recommended more flexible [Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Xinquan shares (603179.SH), Longsheng Technology (300680.SZ)], benefit targets [Chervon Automobile (603982.SH), Xusheng shares ( 603305.SH)] and potential beneficiary target [Hengshuai Shares (300969.SZ)].
2) BYD industrial chain: 430,000 vehicles sold in 2020, expected to exceed 700,000 vehicles in 2021, and 1.5 million vehicles this year, of which the DM-i series 2021-2022 are 300,000 and 1 million vehicles, respectively, the volume is rapid, recommended [Shangsheng Electronics (688533.SH)], benefiting from the target of "Xinrui Technology (300745.SZ), Chervon Automobile".
3) Rivian industrial chain: recommend [Tuopu Group], benefit targets [Daimei shares (603730.SH), Zhongding shares (000887.SZ), Tianqi Mould (002510.SZ)]. Rivian uses a skateboard chassis chassis chassis platform (i.e. non-carrier body structure + wire steering/braking system + battery pack and chassis integration), which is expected to lead the industry innovation and become a mainstream trend, it is recommended to pay attention to the layout line control of the [Bethel (603596.SH)], the layout of the wheel motor benefit target [Asia Pacific (002284.SZ)].
4) NIO industrial chain: Sales in 2022 are expected to be 193,000 units, +111% year-on-year. The existing model replacement + ET5 cut into the volume market, and we expect that NIO is expected to enter a stronger product cycle in 2023. Recommended [Wencan Shares, Shangsheng Electronics, Tuopu Group, Desay SV*], beneficiary target [Changshu Auto Accessories]
2. From the product dimension, the willingness of the vehicle to pile up is improved, and the incremental track of electric intelligent components is more certain, and it is optimistic about electric intelligent incremental components:
1) Electrification increment: the industrial chain of the three-electric system [BYD (002594.SZ), Longsheng Technology, Huayu Automobile (600741.SH)], the beneficiary targets [Ningde Times (300750.SZ), Xinrui Technology, Jingjin Electric (688280.SH), Inboer (300681.SZ)]; New energy thermal management industry chain [Tuopu Group, Yinlun Shares], beneficiary targets [Hengshuai Shares, Zhongding Shares, Sanhua Intelligent Control]; The lightweight industrial chain [Wencan Shares, Aikodi, Tuopu Group, Bethel], the beneficiary targets [Chervon Automobile, Xusheng Shares, Hesheng Shares (002824.SZ)].
2) Intelligent increment: autonomous driving industry chain [Desay SV*, Bethel, Xingyu shares], the beneficiary target [Nextetter]; Intelligent cockpit industry chain [Shangsheng Electronics, Shanghai Yanpu (605128.SH), Jifeng (603997.SH), Fuyao Glass (03606), Desay SV*, Keboda (603786.SH)] (Desay SV, Fuyao and computer group, building materials group joint coverage).
Risk Warning
Sales of new models fell short of expectations; The failure to strictly implement regulations such as points and carbon emissions has led to the progress of new energy models launched by car companies not meeting expectations; Impact of chip shortages.
This article is selected from "Huaxi Securities", authors: Cui Yan, Zheng Qingqing; Zhitong Finance Editor: Bear Worm.