Wen | Li Haoxian
Every time we talk about electric vehicles, some people will comment on the "hydrogen energy is the final way out", "to achieve carbon neutrality must rely on hydrogen energy", "electric vehicles are pseudo-environmental protection" and other statements. So much so that at one point I wondered if we had mispointed the technology tree...
"If hydrogen energy is really so good, why is it electric vehicles that are shining now?" I believe that this is also the same question that many people have with me.
It just so happened that Hyundai Motor told me that there was an opportunity to try nexo hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for the first time in China, and with this opportunity, I wanted to talk to you about all aspects of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and development prospects.
Is the hydrogen energy car easy to drive?
This is the first time Hyundai has taken their NEXO hydrogen fuel cell vehicle to the open road of the Chinese mainland for test drive, if summed up in one sentence: too much like an electric car!
From the perspective of power output characteristics, whether it is the response speed of the power request, the sound emitted by the motor and the power output curve, there is basically no difference between the NEXO and the general electric vehicle, after all, it is only the form of energy, and the same is that both are driven by the motor.
However, in the chassis structure, NEXO is significantly more complex than electric vehicles, NEXO's chassis consists of fuel cells, power batteries, drive motors, and 3 hydrogen storage tanks. Among them, hydrogen storage tanks can be regarded as "fuel tanks" and fuel cells can be regarded as "generators".
The fuel (hydrogen) is output from the hydrogen storage tank into the negative electrode of the fuel cell. On the other hand, the oxygen in the air is filtered by the "air supply system" in front of the car and injected into the positive electrode of the "fuel cell stack", and the electrical energy generated by the chemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen in the "fuel cell stack" is directly entered into the motor and converted into driving force.
Therefore, the capacity of the hydrogen storage tank and the power of the fuel cell also directly affect the endurance and power performance of the NEXO. According to official information, the three carbon fiber hydrogen storage tanks equipped with NEXO have a capacity of 168L, clTC working conditions and a battery life of 596Km; fuel cell power is 135Kw, motor power is 120Kw, and 0-100 acceleration time is 9.5 seconds.
In addition, due to the existence of the power battery, NEXO also has the function of kinetic energy recovery, so the NEXO is extremely similar to the general electric vehicle, but because the NEXO power battery capacity is not large, its curb weight is 200Kg lighter than the Tesla Model Y, so the chassis is like the feeling of a traditional fuel vehicle.
The car also has a fun "little Easter egg". Since the hydrogen-oxygen reaction generates water, NEXO has also designed a separate "one-key water release" function, which needs to be drained when the vehicle travels a certain mileage. Of course, it can be drunk directly in case of emergency.
About the car is introduced here. So the next question is, why did Hyundai bring NEXO to China?
Modern hydrogen energy ambitions
In August this year, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the Notice on Launching the Demonstration Application of Fuel Cell Vehicles, which clearly approved the implementation of fuel cell vehicle demonstration applications in the urban agglomerations submitted by Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong Province.
According to the Notice, during the four-year demonstration period, each urban agglomeration can receive up to 1.7 billion yuan of central financial funds, and the clear incentive targets proposed point to the decline in fuel prices, fuel vehicles, and key components prices, the expansion of vehicle promotion scale, and the increase in the number of hydrogen refueling stations.
It is reported that the Beijing Winter Olympics also specially purchased 140 Toyota Mirai, with the intention of hoping to popularize the concept of hydrogen fuel more through the stage of the Winter Olympics.
The above is considered to be a major positive for the development of fuel cell vehicles in China. In fact, in the development process of new energy vehicles, the policy has always been a strong promoter, just like the electric vehicle state has also vigorously supported the scale and achievements of today for ten years, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are no exception.
Therefore, Hyundai Motor's bringing NEXO to China at this node is completely policy-oriented.
There is no doubt that pure electric vehicles will be the mainstream technical route of China's new energy passenger cars, but no one says that pure electricity and hydrogen energy can only choose one or the other, leaving the market for fuel cell vehicles and fuel cell technology to remain huge; and China's rapidly developing hydrogen energy industry chain still has many gaps: around hydrogen production, storage and transportation, hydrogenation and fuel cell system technology, there is room for continuous progress.
At the same time, this also means that Hyundai Motor Group, which has a series of far-reaching layouts in the hydrogen energy industry chain, has ushered in an opportunity to show its fists (make money) in China.
As early as December 2019, the Guangdong Provincial Government signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Hyundai Motor Group. At the beginning of 2021, Hyundai Motor Group signed an investment cooperation agreement with the Guangzhou Development Zone Government to establish Hyundai Electric Hydrogen Fuel Cell System (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd., and officially started construction of "HTWO Guangzhou" in Guangzhou Development Zone in March, 100% owned by Hyundai Motor Group, and the total investment is expected to reach 8.5 billion yuan by 2030, and the annual output is expected to be 6500 sets. This is Hyundai Motor Group's first overseas hydrogen fuel cell production base in the world.
In December 2021, Hyundai Motor Group and Guangzhou Hengyun Group signed an intention to purchase the NEXO hydrogen fuel cell SUV China version, and Guangzhou Hengyun Group plans to purchase Hyundai Motor's first hydrogen fuel cell passenger car NEXO that complies with Chinese regulations. Officials said that the signing of the NEXO intention purchase agreement aims to promote the demonstration application of hydrogen energy and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China and lay the foundation for future popularization.
Hyundai's introduction of hydrogen energy technology and products has been strongly promoted by the government, and for Hyundai Motor Group to realize the vision of hydrogen energy in 2040, China's vast market is undoubtedly an extremely important driver.
What are the constraints
Since hydrogen energy is so good, why not vigorously develop it early on?
Here's a good quote: Hydrogen energy is a technology that belongs to the future, but it always belongs only to the future. Efficiency and cost have always been the biggest stumbling blocks to the development of hydrogen energy.
First, hydrogen is a "secondary energy source" that has little natural presence in nature and therefore needs to be artificially manufactured.
At present, methane water vapor reforming in natural gas hydrogen production is the most mature hydrogen production technology in industry, accounting for about 70% of the world's hydrogen production. This technology is relatively cheap, but it will emit a large number of greenhouse gases in the process, which belongs to the inversion of the horse and will inevitably be eliminated.
Electrolyzed water hydrogen production technology is the focus of future development, this technology is relatively environmentally friendly, higher purity, but the current cost is about 5 times that of natural gas hydrogen production (mainly expensive electricity), the current hydrogen production from electrolyzed water technology in China is only 4%.
Hydrogen is made and needs to be transported to a hydrogen refueling station, right?
There are three kinds of hydrogen storage and transportation: gaseous, liquid and solid. Gaseous transportation, a car of hydrogen bottles weigh more than 95%, the demand for hydrogen is only 5%, and can not be transported over long distances, inefficient; liquid storage and transportation can reach 10 times the gaseous storage and transportation, but the equipment investment and energy consumption costs are higher. How to balance efficiency and cost is a difficult problem.
Similarly, hydrogen refueling stations are not a small expense.
The basic energy replenishment facilities of electric vehicles can rely on the existing power grid to build, and finding a piece of open space can become a charging station, and the cost is not high. Hydrogen refueling stations are not the same thing. It is understood that the construction cost of a single 35MPa hydrogen refueling station alone is as high as 12-15 million yuan (about 2 million US dollars).
Comparison of recharge station costs (in USD)
As of December 31, 2020, there are a total of 181 hydrogen refueling stations under construction or have been built nationwide, and of the 124 hydrogen refueling stations built in China in 2020, 105 have clear refueling capacity. The top three with the largest number of hydrogen refueling stations in China are Guangdong, Hebei and Hubei, and large hydrogen refueling stations are still scarce.
In the United States, there will be only about 100 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, 95% of which are located in California, and these hydrogen refueling stations are obviously driven by California's hydrogen energy policy. This means that whether at home or abroad, the government plays a very important role in this link, otherwise who can eat?
Finally, there is the price of hydrogen energy passenger cars.
Although Hyundai claims to have reduced the cost of hydrogen fuel cell systems by nearly 98% after more than 20 years of exploration, it is clear that the price of hydrogen fuel passenger cars remains high. Taking NEXO as an example, the overseas price is about 370,000 yuan, while the Toyota Mirai starts at 69,000 euros, which is equivalent to about 500,000 yuan. Compared with the same level of electric vehicles, it can be said that there is no cost performance at all.
In summary, it is conceivable that without government policy support and subsidies, the popularity of hydrogen fuel vehicles will be difficult to achieve.
Where are the prospects?
In May, Volkswagen Group CEO Herbert Diess publicly stated: "Hydrogen energy vehicles have proven not to be a climate-neutral solution. Electrification has gained its footing, false debates are meaningless, believe in science! This view has also been endorsed by Tesla CEO Musk. The madman even said: "Hydrogen energy cars are IQ taxes." ”
Martin Daum, CEO of Daimler Trucks, said that "between battery power and hydrogen fuel cells, we must find a balance, batteries and hydrogen fuel, we both want, because they are very meaningful, under different scenarios, they spend different effects, find that balance, and try to enlarge, is the best solution." ”
Prejudices aside, where is the future of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles? The answer may be on the To B side.
Based on the natural advantages of high energy density, hydrogen fuel cells are the best partner for commercial vehicles. From the demand side, the main application scenarios of fuel cell technology are medium and heavy-duty trucks, long-distance buses, and the passenger car field is large passenger cars. From the supply side, the application scenarios of hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles in the short and medium term are either applied in the region of hydrogen-rich areas; or the application of road transport trunk lines.
The phased objectives of the modern hydrogen energy strategy are also focused on commercial vehicles. By 2028, all of Hyundai's commercial vehicles will be hydrogen-energized. For example, an upgraded model based on the XCIENT Fuel Cell and the ongoing development of a tractor based on the XCIENT Fuel Cell will help Hyundai enter the European commercial vehicle market.
In China, according to the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" plan, China will develop hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles as a breakthrough in the entire hydrogen fuel cell industry, and by 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will reach 1 million. In the future, it is expected to form a complementary and coexistence pattern with pure electric vehicles.
That is to say, in the future, pure electricity and hydrogen energy are two unrelated technical routes, pure electricity for passenger cars, hydrogen fuel for commercial vehicles, the two have their own strengths, and everyone takes what they need.