author
Cui Liwen
The fundamental reason is still the constraints of the system and people.
Responsible editor 丨cha Youyin
Edit 丨 Chic
Just this past weekend, I revisited the movie "The Pianist of the Sea", and there is such a line, which is particularly impressive. "What stopped me was not what I saw, but what I couldn't see."
As for the reasons behind it, it's pretty simple. In less than a week, 2021 will end in turmoil. Looking back at the bits and pieces that have happened in the entire automotive industry, it is suddenly found that with the increasing tide of electrification transformation and the rapid recovery, upward and blowout of the entire new energy market, a new era seems to have really arrived.
In such an environment, there have been several new forces that have always been criticized for their original intentions and suffered many doubts and prejudices to build cars, but did not die after a flash in the pan, but stared at the abyss and survived strongly, and even slowly began to lead the trend and wind.
In contrast, those traditional car companies that are still comfortably enjoying the dividends of the fuel era have never been able to break and stand back and completely let go of the shackles they carry. Even if some of them have decided to go all out to "turn the elephant", in the process of waving goodbye, they encounter various problems and challenges, and chaos is full of chaos.
In the end, the situation solidifies into an unexpected surprise on the one hand and a reasonable disappointment on the other.
New tracks, new rules, new gameplay. Taking the past year as a measurement dimension alone, it is an indisputable fact that it is difficult for traditional car companies to "match" the new forces to build cars. The former's decades of so-called industry experience are slowly failing. The identities of the front runner and the catcher are also quietly reversed.
01
Become the "Standard Answer"
First of all, I want to explain that the original intention of writing this article is by no means the so-called "stepping on one and holding one", trying to please the new forces as much as possible and belittling traditional car companies. Rather, I want to strike directly into the depths of my soul and try to wake up those who live in the bubble of nothingness and "pretend to sleep".
"Three years have passed, Tesla has survived the production capacity hell, and how has the gap between Volkswagen, Toyota and GM changed?"
"The gap is widening."
A few days ago, after the end of the 2021 NIO Day, when talking with friends around me, while lamenting the sensational effect of ET5 for the entire industry, I talked about another more "terrifying" new force to build a car - Tesla, so there was the above dialogue.
It is undeniable that at present, there are many people in the entire industry who do not like this slightly arrogant American car company, and Musk, as the leader, is always wrapped in controversy in every move, every word and deed. However, it must be admitted that regardless of the level of terminal sales, technology accumulation, including brand building, Tesla is the "first place" without any controversy.
It is very interesting that at many other brand launches that I attend every day, I can always see that Model 3 and Model Y are placed in the benchmark PPT by product experts, as the "negative teaching materials" that can be easily hung by their own products.
Whenever this happens, I always feel that behind the action, there is more of a sense of self-deception. In this era, it is precisely because of the existence of the "catfish" Tesla that the speed of evolution will be so fast, and a group of new Chinese forces that can compete with it will be spawned. After precipitation, the second pure electric car ET5 taken out by Weilai is the most typical representative of it.
"Although the specific numbers cannot be disclosed, I can guarantee that after the pre-sale opened, ET5 was the product with the largest number of new orders in our history, and even the APP was once squeezed to the point of collapse." When the interview, Li Bin gave such an answer, obviously able to feel that Weilai finally found its own "explosive model".
In the past year, only ES8, ES6, EC6 three "push new" SUV with a slightly longer life on sale, in the case of successive epidemics and supply chain shortages, it is still approaching the delivery mark of 100,000 vehicles, and the average price of products has remained above 430,000 yuan, successfully standing the label of "high-end new energy".
All this is very hard-won. Among the independent brands, no one has ever done it. In the upcoming 2022, with 6 models on sale and 200,000 vehicles delivered, it seems that it will be the new goal of Li Bin and Weilai.
Similarly, when the Xiaopeng P7 was officially launched in April last year, the entire industry did not believe that this new force could sell such a B-class pure electric coupe well.
However, the final results proved that with the blessing of He Xiaopeng's more accurate strategic vision, with enough eye-catching appearance and intelligent configuration that has formed a "moat", the P7 has been able to successfully break through, and the monthly sales of a single model have exceeded the 7,000-vehicle mark.
At the same time, the guangzhou auto show, the appearance of the medium and large SUV Xiaopeng G9, more harvest is also praise. According to its official staff, the next new car after the G9 has been internally reviewed, and I don't know if it will be the P9 that has formed a benchmarking relationship with the WEILAI ET7. Or is it a pure electric MPV?
However, it can be confirmed that with the help of the new energy track, from low to high step by step "attack", in addition to Xiaopeng, there are not too many people to do it.
As for the final ideal, it goes without saying.
When Li Xiang, as the founder, recently offered the ideal ONE single model in Weibo in November, surpassing the sum of the 5 medium and large SUVs sold by Volkswagen, he has unreservedly elaborated what is called "murderous heart", and also fiercely countered Feng Sihan's remarks that "extending the range is the worst technical route".
Speaking in terms of achievements, creating the record of the fastest delivery of 100,000 vehicles per model of the new power, many of the things that the ideal has done, although controversial, cannot be copied. Tesla + Wei Xiaoli, each of the unique paths they have taken, in the eyes of the catchers, is a "standard answer" worth referencing or even imitating.
But in the process, bigger problems arise.
02
The trap I walked through was the path you came
Extreme Krypton, Sharon, Avita, Lantu, Zhiji, Feifan, AITO, Polar Fox...
If it is said that in the year that is about to pass, several new forces of the head are becoming more and more powerful, then the "independent new energy vehicle companies" hatched by the traditional independent brands mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph have handed over the first answer sheet at this node.
But what about stage achievements? In my eyes, I may be slightly disappointed.
From the follow-up shown at the product level, to the impetuousness presented at the marketing level, to the confusion conveyed at the strategic level. It can be said that as a latecomer, I did not feel the kind of confidence and preparation that they should have brought. On the contrary, there is a very passive feeling.
When the new car is delivered, the various "rollover" pain points encountered by Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideals and Tesla, some of them have also not been able to avoid. In the intelligent cockpit, assisted driving, which is particularly important in the new track, it has not shown a very strong or even leading "longboard".
The lack of memory points, the lack of labels, the lack of stories that can resonate with users, like an insurmountable gap, is placed in front of everyone.
In contrast, traditional joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, GM, and Ford that have reaped a lot of dividends in China have shown a kind of dissatisfaction and increasing lag in the process of electrification transformation, and even cannot clearly understand what consumers really need.
Being too self-sufficient, always unable to lower one's stature, and living in the "utopia" they have created has become the biggest obstacle to their breakthrough.
"The traps that the new forces have walked are the same as the roads when traditional car companies come."
Although I don't want to admit it, combined with the scenes and scenes that are happening in front of me, the latter is not facing a brilliant blue ocean full of stars, but a valley bottom that will fall if you are not careful.
And with the gradual deepening and comprehensiveness of cognition, it will always feel that traditional car companies cannot become a new force. In other words, no matter how hard you catch up, the gap is likely to continue to widen.
The lack of a flat management mechanism, the inability of top-level commands to be effectively executed at the bottom, and even the internal friction between the entire team are becoming a huge drag. What is even more tragic is that even if we know the crux of the problem, most of the time, we do not have the right to heal.
Under the vicious circle, it is also quite unfavorable for the introduction of talents. As mentioned in the previous article "Car Manufacturing Also Has a "Chain of Contempt"", the ideal job search order that the industry has basically reached at present: the new forces of the head echelon > technology giants cross-border car-making > independent new energy brands launched by traditional car companies> and the remaining others > traditional car companies.
Because of this, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideals, which were once spurned by people, have now become the "fragrant food" in the eyes of many people, racking their brains to catch this fast ship.
The formation of the "chain of contempt" related to talents once again indicates that the entire automotive industry has begun to undergo complete subversion. And these subtle changes are also weakening the abundant resources held by traditional car companies step by step. In the end, the once absolute strong are slowly exhausted.
Seeing this, some readers may think that some of the views expressed in the article may be too alarmist.
What I want to say is that the reason why these pain points that many traditional car companies try to cover up and are unwilling to face are put on the table for discussion, more or let them recognize the situation, calm down and think carefully, how to come up with really effective solutions, rather than blindfolded and running wildly.
Fortunately, unlike the mobile phone industry, thanks to the large enough sample size, the car will never become a "winner-take-all" industry. In the new track, the frontrunner has certainly seized a certain first-mover advantage, but the opportunities and outlets have not decreased.
Therefore, it does not mean that if traditional car companies cannot become new forces, they will be directly sentenced to "death penalty". On the contrary, how to live yourself and walk out of a path that is really suitable is really important.
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