Lead
Introduction
"Uncertain" is exactly the current state of the future, and "wanting to gamble" is Lu Qun's current state of mind.
Author 丨 Cui Liwen
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Editor 丨Zhu Jinbin
"Building a car can make a person famous, and it can also make a person deeply mired in the quagmire."
At this moment, presumably after years of ups and downs and various twists and turns, Lu Qun, as the founder of the Great Wall Huaguan and Future Automobile, has already deeply understood.
Because he was originally from the Tsinghua Automotive Engineering Department, unlike other new forces whose founders mostly have a background in marketing or the Internet industry, the former has been dealing with "technology" for nearly 30 years.
Looking at his resume, it is not difficult to find that the most conspicuous part is listed: the patented technology that independently controls intellectual property rights has applied for 1638 patents, including 733 invention patents. He has applied for 11 international patents, including 8 invention patents and 11 software copyrights.
But these honors, which were worth showing off, did not make such an effective endorsement for Lu Qun's road to building cars. On the contrary, compared with the rapid progress of "Wei Xiaoli" in the same period, the rapid rise of Li Bin, Li Xiang and He Xiaopeng has formed a very strong contrast.
What is more serious is that in early 2020, with a sudden epidemic, the industry environment suddenly changed. In addition, there is a large deviation at the financing level, there is a mistake in judgment at the strategic level, and the product level is less than expected.
Under the internal and external troubles, the future is like those members of the second-tier echelon who are not strong in resisting risks or have fatal shortcomings since the beginning of the game, and they are forced to enter the darkest hour.
In turn, there is a frequent negative.
Employees were exposed to a large area of unpaid wages, a number of suppliers came to the door to collect money, the display store in Sanlitun, Beijing, closed, the delivery center in Jingang went to the empty building, and even in the same year, Lu Qun himself was included in the list of restricted high consumption by the court.
All indications are confirming that this new force is only one step away from falling off a cliff. As a bystander, I gradually do not have much expectation for the "future" of the future.
But what is very interesting is that in the past six months, with the news coming, the plot of the above story seems to have ushered in a "reversal".
Lu Qun's "car-making dream" has not yet been completely extinguished.
Future, resurrection
In fact, as early as August 2020, when the future has encountered great difficulties, Lu Qun said very sincerely in an exclusive interview with the media: "The future is not dead, nor will it die." ”
Subsequently, he also added: "I think we should still have enough confidence and patience in the future." No matter what, the future will come step by step, tenaciously alive. ”
However, the status quo of the industry is that with the increasingly fierce wave of electrification transformation, the leaders with high voice continue to emerge. It is true that the future is not dead, but after more than a year of silence, it is difficult to be remembered, and "forgetting" has become something it must accept.
Even in the process, Lu Qun is trying his best to "save himself" and try to pull the company out of the mire. But in the end, in terms of results, they have had little effect.
As for the "reversal" mentioned above, it needs to start from the three tweets sent by its official public account without warning in early December last year.
In the specific content, Future announced that it will develop the first meta-universe racing game based on blockchain technology, and at the same time combine online games with offline events to achieve a racing experience that integrates virtual and real.
At the same time, Creative Cloud provides cloud bases and digital content assets and related interactive technologies required for the event for the Future Meta-Universe Racing Game; Goldenport Holdings provides the racing venue and modification and maintenance team, and Future provides vehicle modification solutions and modified parts, ultimately achieving the goal of the three companies to jointly create offline GT events.
In a tweet a few days later, The Future spoke again: "I haven't seen you for a long time, I'm back... Give yourself a flag, I want to work hard, publish more, beautiful presentation, gorgeous turn. ”
To be sure, with very limited information, it is not certain what is going on behind the psychedelic operations of the future. Standing at that node can only be described by being confused. However, with the announcement of the resumption of production of the only model on sale, the K50 electric sports car known to most people, the story gradually began to clear.
Soon, it came to April 14, Beijing time. Qiantu officially released the customized version of the T round of financing K50, and said that since 2021, it has launched a T round of financing, which is open to the Tsinghua Alumni Association, and the investors are mainly Tsinghua alumni.
The just-concluded May Day holiday officially announced the signing of a formal merger agreement between Beijing Great Wall Huaguan Automobile Technology Co., Ltd. and SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp.
Great Wall Huaguan is expected to complete the restructuring and merger listing at the end of December 2022. At that time, the future will be an important asset component of Great Wall Huaguan to go to overseas IPO. The pre-investment valuation was $1.25 billion.
Seeing this, I can't help but think of a passage that I always like to mention: "Wei Xiaoli" can stand out and quickly become the head echelon of new forces, and they have considered the construction of offshore structures since the beginning of their creation, and have successively gone to the United States to list, and then they can hold more funds to "feed back" the development of the company, which has a great relationship.
Indeed, car building is essentially a capital game before it has achieved "self-hematopoiesis". After going around, Lu Qun undoubtedly wants to use the "backdoor" listing method to raise more hole cards for the future resurrection, and this is obviously another bet on life and death.
As for the outcome, there is huge uncertainty.
The future, the strange road
Lu Qun, who was pro-station, announced on the one hand that K50 would open the "private customization" service in the future; on the other hand, he emphasized the decision of Great Wall Huaguan to go overseas IPO at the end of the year.
But in my mind, for the above two aspects, I can't help but be filled with huge questions.
First of all, it must be recognized that although the current Chinese new energy market is still suffering from the impact of the epidemic, lack of cores, and soaring prices of raw materials for power batteries, the growth trend is still very gratifying. From 2021 onwards, the entire market will expand far faster than anyone can imagine.
Not surprisingly, the cumulative wholesale sales and penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in 2022 are very likely to exceed 5.5 million units and 25% respectively. For all the players on this track, at first glance, it seems to have a bigger outlet and opportunity than before.
The real situation is that with the increasing maturity of the consumption structure, the crazy inner volume of the head leader, and the user gradually understand what is an excellent intelligent electric vehicle, the competition in the product dimension has long been white-hot.
The sense of design of the interior and exterior of the vehicle, the maturity of the electronic and electrical architecture, the experience of the intelligent cockpit and the auxiliary driving system, including the performance of the energy system and the service system, are good or good, bad is not good.
Using this as a yardstick, looking back at the future of resurgence, it is entirely possible to conclude that the K50, which is currently on sale, has no advantages at all.
The data does not lie, the model in the previous one and a half years on the market, the cumulative sales of only a very unsatisfactory 131.
Although it has a supercar-like appearance, an all-aluminum body and some carbon fiber coverings, its 380-kilometer NEDC comprehensive cruising range, 4.6 seconds of zero hundred acceleration capabilities, combined with a terminal price of nearly 700,000 yuan, is not eye-catching today.
The "private customization" method mentioned by Lu Qun has long been learned from the past in the industry. On the K50, it also stays more at the level of internal and external decoration, and essentially still maintains the dilemma of "changing the soup without changing the medicine".
As for the next model, the K20, according to the future plan, pre-sales will be opened this year. However, only from the currently known positioning of its two-seat coupe, as well as the more "peculiar" design language, the high probability will become a niche that can get a certain degree of attention at the beginning of the listing, but cannot go to the follow-up.
Throughout, this new force has failed to come up with a real "mainstream product" in the car. As a result, I can't help but feel deeply worried about the performance of his capital after going overseas to list at the end of the year.
After all, because of the frontrunner like Tesla and "Wei Xiaoli" as a model, investors' examination standards for new car companies are becoming more and more stringent.
After all, no one is a fool. The most basic basis for judging whether it is worth "betting" is the need to prove its own gold content through continuous "selling cars".
As a lesson from the past, also experienced nine deaths, FF Faraday Future, founded by Jia Yueting, also went to NASDAQ last year through the "backdoor" method.
Then, in the face of the sudden changes in the US stock environment, the sudden short-selling of bears, the chaos and disputes within the management, and the various episodes that continue to occur in the process of FF 91 mass production, the total market value has plummeted from the initial $4.535 billion to near $800 million today, and even faces the risk of being forced to delist due to the failure to hand over the quarterly financial statements on time.
Similarly, as early as 2015, after its establishment, Great Wall Huaguan was listed on the "New Third Board". However, the performance situation was not satisfactory, with losses of 98 million yuan and 226 million yuan in 2016 and 2017 respectively, and expanded to 606 million yuan in 2018. Finally, on February 20, 2019, it announced the application for termination of listing, and withdrew from the "New Third Board" on April 19 of the same year.
It is by no means alarmist, precisely because of the above lessons learned from the inside and outside, the new wave of the new force to build a car listing process, always makes people feel full of risks and challenges. Next, the land group and the future are facing a very strange and tortuous road.
At the end of the article, even if I am more pessimistic about the situation and prospects of the two, I still want to send them a passage I saw by chance: "I will not die at all, because I can't die and don't want to die, so I know that life is to go up along a wave of desperate situations." Only because I still want to gamble on the uncertain future of my next life. ”
Indeed, "uncertainty" is precisely the current state of the future, and "wanting to gamble" is Lu Qun's current state of mind.
There is no turning back arrow to open the bow, and you can only move forward with a hard scalp...
| Cui Liwen |
Love the car as fate,
More love electric car editor a ~