Written by | Liang Qiumeng
Edit | Yang Guang
Produced | Automotive Sankei
After surviving the new crown, resisting the lack of cores, and experiencing the electric shortage, the autobots with strong hearts could not stop and rest after all, because—
The annual double-points exam is coming again.
According to the Notice on Matters Related to the Accounting of Double Integrals in 2021 issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, December 31 will be the deadline for filling in the values of various parameters of double integrals.
The most uncomfortable estimate is still FAW-Volkswagen.
At a time when the big fuel vehicle owners are sleeping and eating, companies like BYD are probably already stealing fun.
In fact, in 2020, according to the market situation, BYD has made a profit of about 2.262 billion yuan by relying on new energy credits. This year, with the explosive growth of its new energy models and hybrid models, the positive points that BYD can sell are expected to increase significantly.
For enterprises with negative points for several consecutive years, double integral accounting is very much like a cold throat sealing sword. But for companies that can sell every year, it is clearly a fascinating firework.
The double point policy has created the suffocation of traditional car companies and the happiness of new energy car companies.
NEDC back, WLTC in:
Double integral accounting is more stringent
After half a day, what exactly is the double point policy?
It consists of two parts: one is the fuel consumption credit management method, and the other is the new energy vehicle credit management method.
To put it simply, every traditional passenger car company with an annual output or import volume of more than 30,000 vehicles needs to meet the fuel consumption of traditional fuel vehicles and the electricity consumption of new energy vehicles. If you meet the standard, you will have positive points, and if you don't meet the standard, you will accumulate negative points.
At the beginning of the following year, when settling, car companies need to fill in the negative points of the two types of cars through various means and zero. Otherwise, it will face penalties such as suspending the declaration and production of high-fuel consumption products.
The main context of the double integral management method
When the points of car companies are negative, the more common way at present is to let affiliated enterprises be transferred. For example, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM can obtain points from SAIC's own brands, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota can obtain points from GAC Aian of GAC Group, and Beijing Hyundai can obtain points from BAIC BJEV.
How is the fuel consumption point calculated? For example, if the actual fuel consumption value of a car company that has sold 100,000 new cars is 4.9L/km, and the standard value of China's fuel consumption in 2020 is 5L/100 km, then the positive points it generates in a year are (5-4.9) ×100,000 = 10,000 points. Conversely, if the actual value is 5.1L/km, then the score is negative 10,000 points.
The new energy integration algorithm is more complex. Taking FAW-Volkswagen as an example, according to the new energy vehicle credit ratio requirements of 14%, 16% and 18% in 2021-2023, assuming that FAW-Volkswagen will sell 2 million new cars in 2021, then the new energy credits it needs in 2021 will be 2 million × 14% = 280,000 points.
As for how to get the actual fuel consumption value and the actual endurance and other detection data, in view of the complexity of the algorithm, it is not listed here.
Last year, from the overall situation, due to the relatively high requirements for reducing fuel consumption, traditional fuel vehicle companies basically cannot produce positive fuel consumption integrals, which leads to negative integrals of fuel consumption being much greater than positive integrals.
Image courtesy of Societe Generale Securities
This year, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the measurement standard from NEDC to (New European Driving Cycle) WLTC (Worldwide Light-duty Test Procedure), the accounting faced by car companies has become more stringent.
Because compared with NEDC, WLTC simulates a more dynamic set of test conditions, which is more suitable for daily car scenes. This is likely to increase the fuel consumption data measured by car companies, while the pure electric mileage of new energy vehicles will be lower.
Moreover, the highest value of new energy bicycle points is also declining, and the maximum points for pure electric/plug-in hybrid bicycles in 2021-2023 have dropped from the previous 5 points/2 points to 3.4 points/1.6 points. Previously, FAW-Volkswagen wanted to get 280,000 points, which could be obtained after selling 46,000 units of pure electric models with a 500km endurance, but in 2021, this value became 87,500 units.
Due to the tightening of assessment requirements, it can be predicted that car companies with lower fuel consumption points will face greater pressure. If the group cannot digest the negative points, and the car companies are not willing to balance to the next year, at this time, the double points transaction should appear.
The pit that was stepped on last year can be avoided this year
On July 2, 2018, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs and the State Administration of Market Regulation jointly issued an announcement announcing the launch of the "double points" transaction. This trading platform does not price points, but the car companies involved in the points transaction negotiate in the transaction through bidding or agreement.
Many car companies have taken out a large fee to make transactions on the platform.
Such as Chang'an. Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, said last year that due to the failure of the double integral to meet the standard, Changan's bicycle profit was reduced by 4,000 yuan, which meant that most of the profits were "stolen" by the points transaction.
Such as FAW-Volkswagen. It is revealed that FAW-Volkswagen bought from Tesla at a price of 3,000 yuan per minute in order to consume 1.32 million negative points in 2020.
The car market is the most entangled place, and selling well is also a pain
The consequence of demolishing the eastern wall to supplement the western wall is that many enterprises have increased their losses. So we will find that, so as not to repeat the mistakes of last year, almost every company is trying to get positive points for new energy.
In 2021, Chang'an should be able to significantly improve last year's stretched situation. Through the price strategy, Changan enabled the BenBen E-Star to successfully follow the Hongguang MINI of the same level, selling a total of 66,000 units from January to November.
Also cutting into the market with the strategy of large profit and micro are Chery Small Ants and MiniEV of Dongfeng Fengguang. Every car company knows that pure electric models are very helpful for pulling positive fuel consumption points - in 2020, Wuling relied on 170,000 EVs to achieve 930,000 vehicles to completely "normalize".
Among the independent enterprises, great wall, Changan, Chery, etc. are actively increasing the positive points of new energy, but the action of the joint venture car companies is still relatively lagging behind, and it is likely that this year will be "group annihilation" - among them, the problems of Volkswagen and GM belong to more production and more negative scores; Nissan, Honda and luxury brands in Mercedes-Benz, BMW, etc. may need others to "rescue".
In addition to pure electricity, PHEV is also one of the solutions for car companies. The impact of PHEV models on positive fuel consumption points is not as obvious as that of EVs, but the fuel model is also the choice of many car companies to sell together with plug-in and hybrid models. For example, Geely, which ranked in the top five in negative points last year, sold nearly 10,000 plug-in models through the Lynk & Co brand from January to November this year.
Of course, the above is the idea of offsetting the negative integral of fuel consumption through the positive integral of new energy, and there is also a long-term idea of transforming the negative integral of fuel consumption into a positive integral.
Some technical people pointed out that due to the relatively high requirements for reducing fuel consumption, and the efforts made by Chinese car companies to reduce the number of cylinders at the engine itself have basically failed, only the development of hybrid can meet the fuel consumption standards required by the state.
This year, a large number of companies have announced that they will increase the number of hybrids. Changan Automobile Blue Whale iDD Hybrid System, BYD DM-i Super Hybrid, Great Wall Lemon Hybrid DHT and Chery Kunpeng Hybrid DHT have been introduced. After GAC introduced Toyota's THS hybrid technology, it still increased the layout of its own hybrid technology.
Basically, hybrid has become a long-term technical route for car companies, rather than a transitional technology.
The wealth code of new car manufacturers
Where there is loss, there is gain.
The double points policy has brought financial reporting holes to traditional car companies, but it has brought huge dividends to new energy car companies.
It is understood that Tesla obtained $1.58 billion in operating income by selling carbon emission credits in 2020, and Tesla's net profit in 2020 was only $721 million, which shows the importance of this "extra money".
Without this operating income, Tesla in 2020 would be in a loss.
Qu Yu, vice president of finance at NIO, also revealed this year that NIO earned 517 million yuan in revenue by selling about 200,000 points. According to the same price conversion, WEILAI has a total of 330,000 points in 2020, and if all of them are sold, the total income of the points should be 853 million yuan.
In addition to Weilai, other new power car companies also won a lot of new energy points in 2020: Xiaopeng has a total of 110,000 points, Weima 150,000 points, and the ideal 70,000 points.
Sellers who can offer points in 2020
Some auto analysts predict that the price of double integral trading will show an upward trend next year.
"From the perspective of macro-adjustment, the state formulated this policy in order to produce more new energy vehicles for car companies, but at present, the main sales contributors of new energy vehicles are still independent brands, and the contribution of joint venture brands is very small." In order to make the joint venture car companies feel pressure, the price will not be easily reduced. ”
According to this situation, those new energy vehicle companies that are expected to achieve new sales are likely to make a lot of money by selling positive points next year, and the new car-making forces may use this to achieve a turnaround.
When we comb through the 2021 sales table, we will find that potential sellers are not much different from the 2020 list.
Among them, the joint ventures under Great Wall, GAC, SAIC and Changan will deduct most of the positive points, and there are two companies that have the ability to transfer positive points in large quantities: BYD and Tesla. The second sellers are Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, United and so on.
Potential sellers of new energy credits in 2021
Profits are returned to profits, and it needs to be soberly realized that the original intention of the double integration policy is to prompt car companies to adjust their product structure, vigorously invest in and develop new energy technologies, rather than allowing some companies to make more money. And the points transaction can only be regarded as a transaction within the policy rules, and it is not a profit in the sense of the market.
This may also be the reason why Japanese car companies have come up with new energy vehicles in the half-push and half-push - the pain of being forced to operate is not that they can't make good products, but that even if they don't make money, they have to follow suit.
Tesla, which has an annual sales volume of 500,000 units, cannot yet rely on selling cars to make money, but needs additional subsidies from "policies", which also largely reflects that new energy vehicle companies generally rely on "legitimate livelihood" to make money, and there is still a long way to go.
Write at the end
Of course, as the Chinese market attracts the supply chain of the future automobile travel industry from all over the world, the industrial development pattern of new energy vehicles and the opportunities of surrounding industries are gradually formed, and new energy vehicle companies may sooner or later achieve profitability on their own.
Just like when the country did not hesitate to push 4G at the expense of blood, sacrificing the interests of the three major operators to forcibly transfer the profits of the telecommunications industry to the Internet companies, thus contributing to the outbreak of the Internet industry, so that only the United States and China completed this wealth transfer in the world.
When the automobile also realizes the day of the industrial transfer, looking back, in the process of this big transfer, it may be the double integral policy that ruthlessly intervenes in production and manufacturing and has a super control effect.