[News-Oxcart Network]
"We believe that adapting quickly to future changes is more important than trying to predict the future, because the future is only uncertain. We want to reserve multiple options for our customers until we find the right path. --Akio Toyoda
In just seven months, Toyota has significantly increased its sales target for new energy vehicles in 2030 by 75%.
On December 14, Toyota Motor Corporation held a strategy conference on battery electric vehicles, announcing that it would sell 3.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2030. In May, this is expected to be 2 million vehicles.
Not only that, Akio Toyoda announced that he will invest $35 billion in electric vehicle research by 2030, and will launch 30 electric vehicles before that, and the Lexus brand will also be fully transformed into a pure electric brand.
This luxurious conference did not see any publicity and pre-warm-up, but it shocked the global automotive market. Behind him, Akio Toyoda posed 15 brand new models (bZ4X has been unveiled before), vowing to open his heart to electric vehicles.
"I want to talk about Toyota's strategy to achieve carbon neutrality, as well as the strategy of battery electric vehicles, which is a promising option." Akio Toyoda said at the press conference.
Whether it is a significant increase in sales targets, the full electrification of Lexus, or the real money and silver, Toyota has only one goal behind its high profile - the sword refers to the new energy market. As one of the world's three major auto giants, Toyota has finally fully entered the electric vehicle market.
Choosing the hydrogen energy route "bet on the wrong treasure"?
In the eyes of many, Toyota is very cautious about electrification and lags behind its rivals in the layout of pure electric. Akio Toyoda himself has shelled electric vehicles many times.
In December 2020, he publicly slammed all-electric vehicles for being over-hyped, questioning whether consumers really wanted to buy pure battery-powered cars. He also said that Toyota's hybrid vehicles may cause less pollution to the environment, because most of the world's electricity actually comes from fossil fuels.
In May, Akio Toyoda again opposed the Japanese government's "Decarbonized Fuel Vehicles in the 2030s" policy plan. He said that if the Japanese government continues to plan to stop selling traditional fuel vehicles, then Japanese manufacturers are likely to "lose their advantage" in the auto industry.
At the press conference announcing the great speed of electrification, why did Akio Toyoda change his normal state and completely turn to electric vehicles? After watching the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, last month, "the company felt the need to update its plans to become carbon neutral," Toyoda said. ”
Some analysts believe that this is the transformation that Toyota has to do after the phased failure of betting on "hydrogen energy".
Since the 1970s, Japan has been working on hydrogen energy. In 2014, Toyota launched its first commercial hydrogen-powered vehicle, the Toyota Mirai. If Japan is the global leader in hydrogen energy, then Toyota is the leader in Japan's hydrogen energy, and Japan holds 85% of the world's hydrogen fuel technology patents.
Toyota's small calculation is to directly transition from the era of fuel vehicles to the era of hydrogen energy and continue its hegemony.
However, at present, the Sino-US auto market has all bet on electric vehicles, so it determines the direction of the global auto market, whether from the perspective of local resources or discourse, Japan can not change the current market pattern at all.
Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that "Toyota did not consider pure electric at all at the beginning, and only did ordinary hybrid technology lines. Although hydrogen energy has been developed, the infrastructure is not mature, there is no large number of markets, and the price of hydrogenation is not low; and the supply chain system in the hydrogen fuel cell industry is not perfect, and its technology still needs to be innovated and further reduced costs. ”
Toyota Philosophy: Don't see the rabbit and don't throw the eagle
Putting aside the dispute over technical routes, in fact, Toyota is not opposed to electrification, but against "pure electrification", which is similar to Toyota's consistent thinking, while walking and watching, with the development of the market and constantly adjusting its strategic direction.
As Toyota said at the press conference, "We want to give everyone a choice, not where or what we're going to focus on, and we're going to wait longer until we understand where the market is going." ”
From the perspective of the industry, the delay in the release of electric vehicles by Volkswagen and Toyota in the past few years is not due to insufficient technology, but for the sake of their own development, or they feel that electric vehicle technology has not yet fully matured at that time and adopted a temporary conservative strategy.
Zhong Shi, an analyst in the automotive industry, said: "As the world's largest automobile manufacturer, Toyota has a great principle in doing things, that is, it must look at the timing and then cast the net. ”
In the past few years, when the electric vehicle market was chaotic, opaque, and had not yet formed a scale, Toyota belonged to the calm "bystanders" and "analysts", and because of this, there was a momentary boom in new forces such as Weilai and Xiaopeng. Toyota has actually been preparing for electrification, and there is no need to follow suit in accordance with Toyota's global position.
"Don't see the rabbit and don't throw the eagle, and be oriented by tangible business interests, which Toyota has always done."
In fact, with Toyota's technology accumulation and market pattern, once it is determined to force pure electric, its competitiveness may not be underestimated.
From the new cars at this conference, it can be seen that Toyota is prepared. If you carefully analyze these 15 new cars, you will find that they cover various market segments such as cars, SUVs, MPVs, sports cars, pickup trucks and so on. Almost all the main sales models of the Toyota and Lexus brands can now find their corresponding pure electric versions.
In fact, from the perspective of new energy vehicle technology, Toyota has been in a leading position since the end of the 20th century. In particular, the development of the hybrid prius has been very successful both technically and commercially. In China, by the end of 2020, the cumulative sales of FAW Toyota's dual engine products have exceeded 330,000 vehicles, leading the domestic hybrid market.
In terms of pure electric vehicles, Toyota cannot be said to have no plans. In 1992, Toyota established an electric vehicle research and development department, and in 1996, it launched the first pure electric model RAV4 EV to the market; in the 21st century, Toyota began to implement the "e-com" experimental test of small EVs, and in 2012 launched two prototype models, ultra-small EV and small EV.
In July 2019, Toyota and CATL cooperated in depth in autonomous driving and power batteries, and in March 2020, Toyota and BYD jointly established a pure electric vehicle research and development company, and the two sides will jointly develop new energy vehicles.
In June last year, Toyota said, "Since the advent of the first prius in 1997, we have embarked on a 23-year research and development of electrification technology and mastered the three core technologies of vehicle electrification - motors, batteries, and power control units." With these three core technologies, electrified models can be 'one example and three different, free to match'. ”
At present, Toyota has built an exclusive electrification platform, and the first product is the previously released bZ4X.
The advantage is no longer there, and Toyota's localization strategy is obstructed and long
2021 is known as the inflection point of China's automotive industry. According to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to November this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was close to 3 million. In the past November, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market was 17.8%, which continued to be higher than that of the previous month, of which the new energy penetration rate of the passenger car market has reached 19.5%. The new energy vehicle market has changed from policy-driven to market-driven.
At this time, the Situation in the Chinese Market may be the "timing" in Toyota's eyes. ”
"Launching so many pure electric vehicles at one time is actually one of Toyota's localization strategies." Zhang Xiang said that Toyota has always adhered to the hybrid technology route has its rationality, and now the United States is the world's largest hybrid vehicle market, but the Chinese government is more supportive of pure electric, affected by policies and regulations such as double integrals, Toyota has to adapt to the Chinese market to adjust its strategy, otherwise the market share may decline. ”
However, Toyota, which lost its first-mover advantage, was fully electrified at this time and was obviously left behind.
Not only to deal with the threat of new car-making forces such as Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng and Tesla, but also the siege of China's own brands and even mobile phone manufacturers such as Apple, as well as the encirclement and suppression of head joint venture brands such as Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz in advance, Toyota looks difficult to reproduce the glory of the fuel era.
According to data released by the China Automobile Association in November, among the top 20 car companies in the new energy passenger car market, except for North and South Volkswagen, JAC Volkswagen and BMW Brilliance, all of them are Chinese car companies. The share of Chinese brands in the passenger car market has reached 46.6%.
Even Volkswagen, which has been in the Chinese market for the longest time, has not been smooth in its electrification transformation. In 2018, Volkswagen launched a pure electric MEB platform, and in 2020, it will introduce a pure electric vehicle production plant. However, the sales of the Volkswagen ID. series of 5 models in October this year have just exceeded 10,000, which is not as good as the new forces of head car manufacturing that have been established for several years.
The exclusive platform for e-TNGA pure electricity developed by Toyota has not yet achieved mass production of a model.
Not only that, in terms of intelligent networking, Toyota also has no obvious advantages.
Last year was the first year of Toyota's EV, and three EV models were launched in China - C-HR EV, Yize E Jinqing, and Lexus UX 300e, and it is clear that these three models have not made any splash in the market. In the first half of this year, Lexus UX 300e accumulated sales of 711 vehicles, an average of less than 200 vehicles per month, luxury brand Lexus had no choice but to reduce the price to sell cars.
Zhang Xiang pointed out: "At present, Toyota's starting point for pure electric is low, the mileage of new energy vehicles is quite different from China's own brands, and the intelligent network connection is also generally performing. For example, the central control screen screen is too small, the cockpit is still relatively traditional, and it is not much competitive in the market. ”
PwC has previously analyzed the Volkswagen ID. series of products: the Volkswagen ID. series is an excellent electric vehicle, but it is not smart enough.
Different from traditional fuel vehicles, intelligent electric vehicles belong to a new category, breaking the shackles of traditional thinking. The car is no longer a mechanical product, but an evolvable and vital intelligent terminal. In the final analysis, the previous traditional car company's set of gameplay has changed.
PwC pointed out: "Driven by new car-making forces such as Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, the Chinese market has entered the second stage of electric vehicles: electric vehicles + smart cars. Pure electric vehicles are what BYD, BAIC and Roewe did a decade ago. Europe is still in the first stage, lagging behind the development rhythm of the Chinese market, and Renault, Citroën, including the Volkswagen ID. series, which are at the top of sales in Europe, have not developed well in China. ”
Cao Guangping, an independent researcher of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles, believes that "after the baptism of the market, the products of the new car-making forces have been verified, and the brand operation has become increasingly mature." Compared with foreign brands such as German and Japanese, Chinese car companies have made early efforts in the field of new energy, especially pure electric vehicles, and have obvious advantages in product research and development, quality verification and the layout of the industrial chain such as power batteries. ”
The Internet genes inherent in the marketing level of the new car-making forces, the intelligence, ecology and the sense of experience in the whole process of user car purchase are far beyond Toyota. The rules of the game in the electrification era market have changed, all technologies and channels have to start from scratch, and in China, time seems to belong to Toyota.