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Recently, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the "November 2021 China Automobile Retention Rate Research Report".
Hot events
The Guangzhou Auto Show held in November was a highlight for Chinese brands, with 47 Chinese brands out of 54 world premieres and 19 of the 28 concept cars, reflecting the high R&D investment of Chinese brands. A total of 241 new energy vehicles were exhibited at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, and Chinese brands accounted for 153 units. The competitiveness of the independent brand system is getting stronger and stronger, and the market share is getting higher and higher, which will promote the improvement of the brand's retention rate.
The volume of vehicles stopped falling
At this stage, the second-hand car source mainly relies on replacement, due to the reduction of replacement, the number of second-hand car sources declined in the second half of the year, and the online car source stopped falling this month, and resumed positive growth month-on-month. In most cases, "replacement" can be called the starting point of the used car transaction. As the time approaches the end of the year, the seasonal market of the used car market has reappeared, and it is about to usher in the New Year's Eve market. Between November and December, used car dealers need to reduce their inventory as much as possible.
Retention rates at each level
This month, the price of second-hand cars began to bid farewell to the previous price increase and transformed into a "price reduction" situation. The short price increase some time ago is actually more of a quasi-new car with a year or so of age, and the price of second-hand cars with a longer age is difficult to recover. SUV due to the high price of bicycles, compared to the car, will occupy more funds of the car dealer, at this time need to be sold as soon as possible to avoid the New Year.
The retention rate of luxury brands is stable
Demand for luxury brand used cars is still strong, and when the market as a whole reduces prices, the decline in luxury brands is very small. The retention rate of individual brands has risen, and the price increase of Cadillac used cars is the most obvious, and the reason for the price increase is not from short-term stimulation, but from the long-term impact of product replacement.
Among luxury brands, Porsche and Lexus are still the first group, with Porsche retaining 98.1% in November, basically the same as in October, and Lexus retaining 89.9% in November, down 0.7 percentage points from October.
The German top three performed closely, with Mercedes-Benz performing the best, with a retention rate of 78.6% in November, BMW at 74.3% and Audi at 70%. BMW fell more sharply in November, down 1.4 percentage points from October.
Most second-tier luxury brands have a retention rate of about 60%, Infiniti, Land Rover, Tesla are 62.3%, 62.1%, 62%, Acura is 61.3%, volvo is 60.4%; the above brands have not changed much, and Volvo's retention rate is 60.4%, which is also the same as last month. Cadillac's retention rate rose 1.2 percentage points to 59.8% in November, Jaguar's retention rate in November was 58.2%, Lincoln's was 54.8%, and DS rose 1.4 percentage points in November, but still only 37.8%.
Toyota's retention rate has rarely declined
In the mainstream joint venture brand camp, Toyota's retention rate has declined, which is related to the decline in the price of compact cars Corolla and Leiling used cars. The retention rate of the Honda brand increased significantly in November, which is related to the launch of the new generation Civic, and its attention is far more than that of Toyota products in the same class. In addition to "top-notch" brands such as Japanese and Korean brands and Volkswagen, the market space of other joint venture brands has been further compressed, and most manufacturers have taken the initiative to reduce the launch of models. When prices fall, so do different brands. The decline in price of Ford-brand used cars has slowed, reflecting the recognition of brand value.
Toyota and Honda's retention rate remains high, with Toyota still reaching 87% in November compared to October, Honda retaining 80% in November, an increase of 1.8 percentage points, and Mitsubishi at 71.2%, down 2.5 percentage points from October. Mazda's retention rate in November was 68.5 percent and Nissan was 67.6 percent, down 0.4 percentage points from October. VW's retention rate in November was 66.7%, up slightly from October, and Isuzu's retention rate in November was 66.2%, up 1.76 percentage points from October. Kia's brand retention rate rose to 64.5 percent in November, compared to 63.5 percent for brother brand Hyundai.
Buick's November retention rate was 64.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, Ford was 61.2%, Jeep was 57.6%, Chevrolet was only 54.1%, and buying a used Chevrolet was more suitable than a used Buick. Citroen had a retention rate of 59.3% in November, Peugeot 54.3%, Renault 55.2% and Skoda 58.4%.
Own brands declined slightly
In the context of the overall price reduction of second-hand cars, the retention rate of independent brands has also decreased slightly, and only Baojun, Changan, Haval, MG, Weilai, Roewe and others have risen slightly this month. For the first time this year, MG's retention rate surpassed Geely's, and the brand rank further increased.
In November, wuling and lynk & co both had a retention rate of more than 70%, Trumpchi was 66.04%,63.53% of Baojun, 63.07% of Changan, WEY brand 63.03% of more than 63%, and more than 60% of Venucia, Haval, MG, Geely and Hongqi. Nio's retention rate rose significantly in November, from 55.91% in October to 59.52%.
New Energy Vehicle Market:
In the new energy market, Guangdong Province issued the "Several Policies and Measures on Promoting Urban Consumption", mentioning that there are two main aspects of automobile consumption, one is to relax the index restrictions of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the other is to improve the layout of automobile sales outlets. Among them, Shenzhen mainly emphasizes new energy vehicles, while Guangzhou also has a balance on energy-saving vehicles. From 2021 to 2022, the incremental indicators for the allocation of energy-saving cars in Guangzhou will increase to 80,000, and Shenzhen will further relax the application conditions for new energy car indicators, cancel restrictions such as social security conditions, and promote the sales of new energy cars.
Different drive modes behave closely
In November, the retention rate of pure electric vehicles increased, and the retention rate of plug-in hybrid models declined, and the performance of the two gradually approached. In the new car market, the boundaries between a variety of technical routes, including light mixing, range extension and other technologies, have gradually been opened, and various products can effectively achieve the goal of "reducing energy consumption". In the use of the link, the rapid construction of the charging and replacing power station is helping pure electric vehicles to improve the use experience, and the actual use value of the product has improved. In November, the three-year retention rate of pure electric vehicles was 41%, and the plug-in hybrid model was 51.6%.
The overall change of new energy vehicles this month was uneven, and the performance of key models rose to the first place, with a one-year age retention rate of 88.7%, Porsche Taycan 86%, and Tesla Model X 83.4%. In terms of three-year age retention rate, the Porsche Panamera plug-in hybrid is 96.3%, the BMW 5 Series plug-in hybrid is 69.1%, and the Tesla Model X is 67.4%.
Write at the end
Judging from the changes in the used car market in November, many brands have experienced a decline in the retention rate, and the price of used cars will also fall as the chip shortage is alleviated and the supply of new cars increases.
According to the Survey of China Automobile Dealers Inventory Warning Index released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index of automobile dealers in November 2021 was 55.4%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year and up 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, and the inventory early warning index was above the boom-bust line. At present, the supply of automobiles has picked up, dealer inventories have entered the replenishment stage, and the number of models available for sale has increased, but hot-selling models still need to wait for 1-2 months. At present, it is the end of the year, the dealer terminal preferential range is deepening, but the epidemic has disrupted the normal sales rhythm, most dealers believe that the task goal is hopeless, mostly poly, and manufacturers have also adjusted or cancelled the task indicators. Near the end of the year, the supply of chips has gradually eased, but the annual sales gap is difficult to make up. Factors such as the early Spring Festival and the expiration of the year-end consumption promotion policy are conducive to the release of year-end consumer demand, but the momentum of dealers at the end of the year is still weak, and most dealers are unable to complete the task target and transfer part of the demand to 2022.
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