The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 20%, and car companies such as BYD have accelerated the pace of production

Reporter Of this newspaper, Jiao Yue, trainee reporter Li Yucheng

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is accelerating beyond the 20% mark. According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association on December 10, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reached 19.5% in November. According to a report released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles, the penetration rate of the domestic retail market for new energy passenger vehicles in November was 20.8%.

In November this year, BYD, GAC Aeon and other independent brands of new energy vehicles maintained a momentum of doubling growth. However, major manufacturers are facing the challenge of slow delivery and are speeding up the pace of production.

Zhang Xiaorong, president of the DeepIn Science and Technology Research Institute, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that the rapid development momentum of new energy vehicles has greatly exceeded the predictions of the outside world, and it is logical to meet the standards in advance. In order to successfully achieve the "double carbon" goal, the trend of automobile "electric generation oil" is irreversible, and new energy vehicles will have better market performance in the future.

The production and sales of new energy vehicles are booming

Passenger car penetration rate exceeds 20%

New energy vehicles enter a steep growth curve. According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 457,000 units and 450,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times year-on-year. From the perspective of penetration rate, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 17.8% in November, higher than in October. Among them, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars reached 19.5%, up from 18.2% in October. According to a report by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, on the retail side, new energy passenger cars have crossed the 20% threshold in November, reaching 20.8%.

From January to November this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million units and 2.99 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate reached 12.7%. The China Automobile Association believes that at present, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher, and the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.

Qi Haiyan, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter: "According to the principle model of 'innovation diffusion curve', the market share of new industry products will usher in a 'steep curve' after the inflection point of more than 10%, and there will be a rapid rise or even a double growth. There is almost no suspense in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching the standard in advance, which reflects the strong certainty of the industry's good development. ”

Specific to the company level, in November, all independent brand manufacturers maintained a momentum of high year-on-year growth. According to the production and sales express reports released by various companies, in November, BYD and GAC Aeon completed the sales of 91,200 new energy vehicles and 15,000 units respectively, an increase of 241.77% and 109.11% respectively; the retail sales of Xiaopeng Automobile reached 15,600 units, an increase of 269.6% year-on-year; and the sales of new car-making forces such as Ideal and Weilai also doubled.

According to the report released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles reached 33.2% in November, an increase of 3.2 percentage points over October.

Production capacity is relatively limited

Car companies speed up the pace of production

Driven by the increase in market demand, the supply capacity of new energy vehicles has become a major problem faced by major manufacturers. Recently, Xiaopeng Automobile said that due to the impact of the epidemic, the industry is facing an extreme shortage of lithium iron phosphate battery supply, which has brought great uncertainty to the production of Xiaopeng P7480E/N models, resulting in orders for related models that cannot be delivered in time within the expected delivery cycle.

Qi Haiyan said that the increase in the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has led to a strong demand for power batteries, especially the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries has grown rapidly, mainly because the demand for new energy vehicles at low and medium prices is relatively more exuberant. It is expected that the tight supply of power batteries will become the "new normal" of development in the next few years.

THE BYD DM-i has also been accused of "not being able to pick up the car." In this regard, BYD responded on the interactive platform that DM-i models have been widely concerned and recognized by the market after listing, the order demand is strong, and the company is actively improving the production rhythm to meet the needs of users. In an interview with the agency, BYD revealed that the company's hybrid model production and sales are rising month by month, and the company is actively planning related production capacity and parts supply to ensure the smooth delivery.

GAC Aeon also faces the problem of insufficient production capacity. Recently, GAC Group said on the interactive platform that GAC Eason safety model orders are sufficient, the factory is fully loaded, and the capacity utilization rate of the IAN plant will exceed 130% in 2021. GAC Aeon is currently expanding its plant and plans to double its production capacity by early 2022, with an annual production capacity expected to increase from 100,000 to 200,000 units.

Orient Securities Research Report believes that the contradiction between the high-growth market demand of the new energy automobile industry chain and the limited expansion of some raw material production capacity will exist for a long time and will become a key factor in the development of automobile electrification in the next 3 to 5 years.

Taking lithium carbonate, the main component of the cathode material of new energy vehicle power batteries, as an example, driven by strong market demand, the price of lithium carbonate has risen all the way. Wind data shows that as of December 10, the average price of lithium carbonate (99.5% electricity) reached 220,000 yuan / ton, up 378.26% from the same period last year, a record high.

"Supply chain tension is a temporary phenomenon, many large factories have been stocked in advance, there is enough inventory to cope with market demand, more strategic foresight of large factories have penetrated into the upstream lithium ore industry, the market is expanding rapidly, and the shortage of individual materials will not cause trouble to the progress of the industry." Zhang Xiaorong thinks.

Qi Haiyan said that in the case of tight supply chain, car companies will develop high-end models with high added value will be a strategy, and the pattern of low-price competition may be broken.