"Investor Network" Ge Fanmei
Since the beginning of this year, the new energy vehicle market has been particularly "lively", with the ideal MEGA "laying car" event, Xiaomi's new car SU7 on sale, and Skyworth Automobile's "life extension" ....... The new energy vehicle market is constantly being discussed.
Looking back on the past year, the new energy vehicle market has also been up and down, on the one hand, challenges such as "intensified competition" and "price war" have frequently appeared, and fierce battles have been ushered in between major manufacturers; On the other hand, the new energy vehicle market continues to soar, achieving sales and market share growth.
According to the data disclosed by the Passenger Car Association, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in mainland China in 2023 will be 21.699 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Among them, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 7.736 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%, and the annual penetration rate was 35.7%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points.
In 2023, the pace of new energy vehicles going overseas will accelerate. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the cumulative production of new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 8.92 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%; the cumulative wholesale was 8.864 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.3%; The cumulative retail sales were 7.736 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%; Total exports totaled 1.048 million units, reflecting a 72.0% y/y increase. Globally, China's new energy vehicle sales occupy an absolute advantage, accounting for 63.4% of global new energy vehicle sales
At present, there is still a lot of room for improvement in China's passenger car penetration rate and new energy market share, and China, as the world's automobile factory, has a huge potential new purchase group. As one of the tracks with high market attention, new energy vehicles are constantly accelerating the reshuffle with the addition of more and more participants such as price reduction and Xiaomi.
Sales: BYD is unbeatable
Under the "dual carbon" goal, the policy is still vigorously promoting the development of new energy vehicles. For example, on June 21, 2023, the Ministry of Finance, the Tax Headquarters, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Announcement on Extending and Optimizing the Vehicle Purchase Tax Reduction and Exemption Policy for New Energy Vehicles, extending the purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles until the end of 2025, and halving the purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027.
The demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, and the attractiveness of products has improved. According to the research on the product attractiveness index of the new energy vehicle market, the product attractiveness of the new energy vehicle market will make significant progress in 2023, with the overall score of the industry being 776 points (1000 system), an increase of 36 points from 2022.
In the new energy vehicle market pattern, the growth of production and sales is still the main theme. In 2023, the top 10 new energy vehicle companies will all see an increase in sales. According to the data of the Passenger Association, in 2023, among the new energy manufacturers, BYD, Tesla, GAC Aion, Geely Automobile, SAIC-GM-Wuling, and five car companies ranked among the top five in terms of retail sales, with market shares of 35%, 7.8%, 6.3%, 6.1%, and 5.9% respectively; The sixth to tenth automakers are Changan Automobile, Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, NIO and Leapmotor, with shares of 5%, 4.9%, 3.1%, 2.1% and 1.9% respectively.
It is not difficult to see that BYD's sales in 2023 will be almost unbeatable. According to the data disclosed in the announcements of various companies, the data released by BYD shows that in 2023, BYD will achieve cumulative sales of 3.0244 million new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 62.3%, and this new energy vehicle leader has successfully achieved the sales target of 3 million units set at the beginning of the year.
Compared with BYD, the results of other players were thrown "a few streets". Among the domestic independent new energy vehicle brands, behind BYD, GAC Aion, Geely Automobile and Li Auto have formed the second echelon. Specifically, GAC Aion's cumulative sales in 2023 will be more than 480,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 77%. However, according to the sales target set at the beginning of 2023 to "strive to reach 500,000 units and sprint towards 600,000 units", it seems that the actual sales volume has not reached the target set at the beginning of the year.
In 2023, Li Auto can be described as one of the fastest-growing car companies in terms of sales, with a cumulative delivery of 376,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 182.2%. Moreover, by the end of 2023, Li Auto has delivered more than 600,000 vehicles, making it the new power car company with the highest delivery volume.
New energy vehicle companies such as NIO, Leap, and Xpeng have relatively close sales to each other, but most of the sales in 2023 have not met expectations. For example, NIO will deliver 160,000 vehicles in 2023, up 30.7% year-on-year, but it is far from its sales target of 250,000 units set at the beginning of the year. In 2023, Leapmotor will deliver a total of 144,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than 29%. Xpeng Motors will deliver a total of 141,600 vehicles in 2023, which is also short of the 200,000 delivery target it proposed at the beginning of the year.
In 2023, Geely's new energy vehicle company Zeekr will deliver a total of 118,700 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 65%, and it will also fail to achieve its annual sales target of 140,000 vehicles. Nezha delivered only 127,500 vehicles for the year, almost half of the 250,000 sales target set at the beginning of the year. Among the new car companies, Nezha Automobile has obviously fallen behind.
Performance: Profit gap is large
With the rise of domestic new energy vehicles, traditional car companies are also accelerating their embrace of new energy. The competition for new energy vehicles is fierce, and the "price war" has become a topic of conversation throughout 2023 in the automotive industry. Under the influence of the price war, major car companies continue to attract consumers by cutting prices and making profits, which is reflected in the financial statements of car companies, some people are happy and some are worried.
Among the listed companies of car companies, BYD, as the sales champion of new energy vehicles, is undoubtedly the largest in terms of profit scale. According to the data, in 2023, BYD's operating income will be 602.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.04%; The net profit was 30.041 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.72%.
In recent years, BYD has continued to improve its brand matrix, and the high-end brand Yangwang and the professional personalized brand Equation Leopard have been officially released during the year, forming a multi-brand gradient layout built by BYD, Denza, Yangwang, Equation Leopard, etc. In August 2023, BYD won the title of "the world's first car company to achieve the 5 million new energy vehicles off the assembly line", and in November 2023, BYD held the 6 million new energy vehicle off the assembly line ceremony at the Zhengzhou factory, also becoming the first car company in the world to achieve this milestone.
Behind BYD, the net profit scale of SAIC, Li Auto, and Changan Automobile has also exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the operating income in 2023 will be 172.009 billion yuan, 220.690 billion yuan, and 127.587 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.106 billion yuan, 11.704 billion yuan and 11.327 billion yuan respectively.
Among them, the most eye-catching is Li Auto, which will not only increase its revenue significantly in 2023, but also successfully achieve profitability of 11.809 billion yuan, becoming the first new car-making force to achieve profitability. This is due to the continuous increase in sales of the Ideal L series products. In 2023, Li Auto will further expand its product matrix and launch the Ideal L7, Ideal L8 Air Edition, and Ideal L9 Pro Edition.
However, among the car companies, the net profit of Cialis, Dongfeng Group Co., Ltd., Leapmotor, BAIC Blue Valley, Xiaopeng Motors, and Weilai in 2023 is still in a state of loss, with -2.450 billion yuan, -3.996 billion yuan, -4.216 billion yuan, -5.400 billion yuan, -10.376 billion yuan, and -21.147 billion yuan respectively. It is not difficult to see that NIO has the most losses, and the loss has expanded the fastest.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, believes that from the perspective of industry benefits, it is difficult for enterprises that lack stable cash flow to continue to grow. At present, the development of new energy vehicles of traditional independent brand car companies is becoming stronger and stronger. At the same time, he said that in addition to the head enterprises, new energy vehicles are still facing certain loss pressure, and it is difficult to continue to expand the scale of loss-making cars.
The Future: The Remainder is King
In 2023, the new energy vehicle industry will not only have significant growth in sales and market share, but also continue to make efforts in technological innovation.
From the perspective of R&D investment, BYD, SAIC, NIO-SW, and Li Auto will rank among the top in R&D investment in 2023, with 39.575 billion yuan, 18.365 billion yuan, 13.431 billion yuan, and 10.586 billion yuan respectively, all of which are above 10 billion yuan; The R&D investment of Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile and Xiaopeng Motors is also more than 5 billion yuan, with 8.054 billion yuan, 5.980 billion yuan and 5.277 billion yuan respectively. The R&D investment of Leapmotor, GAC Group, Celis, JAC, Yutong Bus, Jiangling Motors, and BAIC Blue Valley in 2023 will be within 2 billion yuan to 1 billion yuan.
In 2023, the new energy market will begin to improve the surrounding layout of the entire technology industry while products and technologies have been improved. For example, BYD DM-i super hybrid, Geely multi-gear DHT hybrid technology, Deep Blue Automobile's "super range extension" technology, Great Wall Motor's first full-stack self-developed intelligent cockpit system, Huawei, Xiaopeng and other car companies began to land in urban intelligent driving.
It is worth mentioning that under the leadership of leading car companies such as Tesla and Huawei, intelligent driving is in the process of rapid iteration. Many institutions believe that the autonomous driving function may become a new demand for consumers to buy cars, and the intelligent driving function may become the winner or loser of vehicle sales in the future.
In the past year, the price war in the new energy vehicle market has continued, and the market has accelerated its reshuffle. In the increasingly involuted new energy vehicle market, even the new car-making forces that have been successfully listed are facing a big test, and the survival pressure of car companies with weak profitability is increasing. How to achieve long-term development and achieve "the remainder is king" is a test for all participants in the market.
Looking ahead, the development of new energy vehicles is still optimistic. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, expects that the market growth of new energy vehicles in 2024 is expected to be relatively optimistic, and the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 11 million, with a net increase of 2.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a penetration rate of 40%, and new energy passenger vehicles will maintain a strong growth momentum.
Guolian Securities also predicts that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to reach 11.5 million in 2024, and the penetration rate of new energy is expected to reach 42.8%. Considering that the new energy purchase tax reduction and collection policy will continue to escort from 2023 to 2027, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth due to the technological innovation and product iteration of OEMs. (Produced by Thinking Finance)■