Today (May 17), the highlight of the market is still in real estate! At noon today, the central bank issued three blockbuster policies in a row beyond expectations, including canceling the lower limit of the housing loan interest rate policy, lowering the interest rate on provident fund loans and lowering the down payment ratio. As soon as this news came out, the real estate sector instantly surged, the real estate leaders Vanke A and Poly Development both rose to the limit, and the real estate ETF (159707), which represents the A-share leading real estate market, soared by more than 9%, setting a record of seven consecutive yangs, and blasting out a daily turnover of 215 million yuan!
Real estate is an important pillar of economic development, is the steering stone to stabilize the economy, and the confidence of the real estate market has increased greatly. Driven by real estate, the A-share market also ushered in a big counteroffensive today, with the three major indexes all rising more than 1%. More than 4,000 stocks rose in the whole market, and the turnover of the two cities continued to increase to 887.4 billion yuan. The core assets of A50 were greatly boosted, and the price of the core leading broad-based A50 ETF Huabao (159596) rose 1.67% to a new high since its listing, with a turnover of 334 million yuan, ranking first in its category!
Real estate ETF (159707) set a record of seven consecutive positives! The latest research and judgment of fund managers is here
Sure enough, there is a "fried market" policy, and today's real estate continues to strengthen, and the leading real estate companies set off a rising tide, Vanke A, Poly Development, Binjiang Group, Huafa Shares, Greenland Holdings, etc. China Merchants Shekou, Financial Street, OCT A, Xincheng Holdings, etc. rose more than 9%, and the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rose for seven consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 13.32% in a single week! It significantly outperformed the broad market of the CSI 300 (+0.31%) and CSI 500 (-0.79%) indices over the same period.
In terms of popular ETFs, the real estate ETF (159707), which represents the leading real estate market of A-shares, soared in the afternoon, rising 9.09% to close at 0.684 yuan, a new high in 5 months, and a record of seven consecutive days on the daily line! The turnover rate exceeded 61% throughout the day, and the turnover hit 215 million yuan, a new high since listing, and a surge of more than 115% from the previous trading day! And the premium at the end of the market is obvious, indicating that there are contingent funds to grab funds!
On the news side, the central bank's unexpected policy has been issued three times in a row, involving a number of adjustments to the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates. These include:
• Abolition of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for first and second homes at the national level;
• From May 18, 2024, the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points;
• For households that take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first house is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second houses is adjusted to not less than 25%.
As soon as this news came out, the real estate sector soared instantly, and the latest market value of Vanke A and China Merchants Shekou also returned to 100 billion yuan.
Regarding the down payment policy, Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said that this is the most relaxed down payment policy in the history of China's home purchase, which has an obvious effect on stimulating market transactions. The reduction of the down payment ratio is far higher than that of other urban policies, and is of great significance for the rapid release and large-scale release of housing loan-pulled, rigid demand and improved housing.
Regarding the mortgage interest rate, market participants said that the cancellation of the lower limit of the national personal housing loan interest rate policy is a trend-following behavior. It is expected that in addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the lower limit of mortgage interest rates in most cities across the country will be abolished. After the policy is implemented, the mortgage interest rate in most cities may drop by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, and the total interest expense can be reduced by more than 70,000 yuan based on the calculation of 1 million loans, 30-year term, and equal principal and interest repayment. Interest expenses for improved demand housing will be reduced even more.
Jiang Junyang, fund manager of real estate ETF (159707), said that since the recent high-level meeting of the central government set the tone of "overall study of policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing", the policy thinking of real estate has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, and focused on destocking. The central bank has launched three arrows at the same time, canceling the lower limit of the housing loan interest rate policy, lowering the interest rate on provident fund loans and lowering the down payment ratio.
Looking forward to the future, Jiang Junyang believes that with the continuation of the loose tone of policies at both ends of supply and demand, the supply-side clearance under the support of financing is basically over, and the demand-side policies stimulate or guide the fundamentals to stabilize and repair, and the industry has short-term opportunities for rebalancing the relationship between supply and demand, while the transformation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing are expected to provide incremental space for the industry. It is worth noting that in the real estate sector, state-owned enterprises with relatively stable fundamentals, strong financial strength, and more high-quality and abundant land reserves, as well as high-quality private enterprises that take the lead in completing credit repair in this round of industry clearance, can focus on.
For the layout of central state-owned enterprises and high-quality real estate enterprises, it is recommended to focus on real estate ETFs (159707). According to the data, the real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, bringing together 16 leading high-quality real estate companies in the market, and has obvious head concentration advantages in the investment direction, with the top ten constituent equity weights exceeding 8 percent, and the content of central state-owned enterprises is high! The Real Estate ETF (159707) is also the only industry ETF that tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index in the market, which has scarcity and recognition.
Pictures and data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Huabao Fund, Wind, etc., as of 2024.5.17.
Risk Warning: The real estate ETF passively tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which has a base date of 2004.12.31 and a release date of 2012.12.21, and the underlying index of the A50 ETF Huabao (159596) and its feeder fund is the CSI A50 Index, which has a base date of 2014.12.31. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated as index constituent stocks, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the fund manager and fund investment direction. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents of the fund, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. According to the assessment of the fund manager, the risk level of real estate ETF and A50 ETF Huabao is R3-medium risk, which is suitable for investors with balanced (C3) and above, and the suitability matching opinion is subject to the sales agency. Please refer to the sales agency for suitability matching opinions. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner when the distribution agencies (including fund managers, direct sales agencies and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the above funds in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and the opinions of each sales agency on the suitability are not necessarily the same, and the risk rating evaluation results of fund products issued by fund distribution agencies shall not be lower than the risk rating evaluation results made by fund managers. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract are different due to different factors to be considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, horizon, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the above funds by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the funds. Caution should be exercised when investing in funds.