A few days ago I saw a text message:
【UNDP Hydrogen Industry Conference 2021 Opens in South China Sea】
On December 8, the 2021 UNDP Hydrogen Energy Industry Conference was held at the Xiqiao Mountain Cultural Center in Nanhai District, Guangdong Province. At the meeting, the Guangdong Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration City Cluster, led by Foshan and jointly established by Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities, was announced; a number of hydrogen energy projects in the South China Sea were released, put into operation and signed contracts.
(Source: South China Sea Release)
Some basic background on this newsletter are:
1. Shishan Town in Nanhai, Guangdong Province, is the location of a German car company's factory in the southern region, and it is said that it has a lot of GDP contribution to the local area;
2. Guangzhou has a number of automobile manufacturers. South Korea's Hyundai Motor Group also signed a hydrogen energy industry investment project in Guangzhou this year;
3. Shenzhen has a number of local and joint venture automobile enterprises (passenger cars and buses).
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It has often been heard before that the next generation of motor vehicle drive technology has now become a dispute between electric and hydrogen fuel, and has risen to the battle of national policies and the future. Such a macro topic, and at present is only the beginning of the game, there are many unpredictable factors, it is too early to judge, and there is no ability to do so. Just hold the mentality of rubbing the heat, try to look at it from the perspective of the cold door.
The so-called unpopular angle is that since the answer to the question cannot be obtained, then it is also from the direction of creating the problem to think, for different people, different experiences, different positions and heights, try to see if you can get their own inspiration or new inspiration:
1, the next generation of motor vehicle drive unit technology, is the electric and fuel hydrogen dispute, that is, there is no petrochemical energy (gasoline / diesel, natural gas, etc.) or anything. Although this story has been proposed a few years ago, "The wolf is coming" has been shouted for several days, and today when I look back, the wolf is really coming step by step;
2, although electric is the mainstream of the country, but the fuel hydrogen, it seems to have become one of the alternatives;
3, considering that MotoGP has also released a plan to exclude fossil fuels in the future, electric and fuel hydrogen are the most likely to become mainstream choices. This may be a response after the end of the previous 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (2021);
4. In recent years, domestic motorcycle companies (here we are talking about motorcycle manufacturers using reciprocating piston internal combustion engines) have launched new products one after another, and even "epoch-making" new products in their enterprises, a thriving scene. But......... When the next generation of motor vehicles will be electric vs fuel hydrogen, is today's carnival just the excitement before the advent of terminal cancer?!
5, self-proclaimed domestic electric vehicle industry is a little understanding, in the middle and low-end field, the current temporary is a certain degree of competitiveness, but to lead the era from technology, the gap is still a lot - when it comes to technology, in addition to the technology of science and technology cabbage, but also need cutting-edge, capable people can not do, rather than a swarm can do. Otherwise, the results can be predicted: today's automobile and motorcycle industries, that is, to do a good job of commuting tools, earn an assembly fee, as for high value-added products, how good to say, it will take time to verify;
6. The growth of an industry is inseparable from the technological development of the entire supporting chain. For example, China's mobile phone industry, from its own cognition, understands that without Huaqiang North in Shenzhen, China's mobile phone industry will take longer to grow and estimate. Without the fierce competition and barbaric growth of the eight immortals across the sea, how can the survival of the fittest be?! Since you want to be a zhuang, where is there any "healthy and stable development"?! This is my own view all along;
7, personal has always believed that for any enterprise, whether the choice to change, or unchanged, it is itself a gamble. The final result is either from being a farmer, to being idle or even dead, or from being idle and becoming a farmer - although in today's society, large enterprises are always a minority, small and medium-sized enterprises have always been the majority, can not afford to pay "tuition", are not willing to bear or can not afford to make mistakes, they are doomed to eat in the cracks, admit their fate, and complain less;
8, for China's motorcycle companies, electric vs fuel hydrogen, this is already a clear result, the third choice has not yet been seen. Whether or not they are willing to accept this gamble of change and change, all companies have essentially made a bet as they get closer and closer to the next generation of technology battles;
9, considering the characteristics of China's two-wheel industry, electric vs fuel hydrogen, the greater impact is actually an engine manufacturing enterprise. Because many electric vehicles and motorcycle manufacturers are originally just an assembly enterprise. However, once the fuel hydrogen gradually becomes the mainstream, then the accumulation of the past will be zeroed out, although, from the perspective of technology/performance, I myself do not think that the accumulation of these technologies can have much value;
10, for manufacturers, the most concerned, not necessarily the dispute between electric and fuel hydrogen, the focus is on how to judge the entry time point suitable for their own entry, in what time? Is it within the next 10 years, or in the next 10 years? Of course, the most people will choose: see first, then say later! Because, after all, this is determined by strength and determination;
11, in the field of technology, even giant manufacturers, need to feel the stones to cross the river, take a step to see a step, has long been ready to throw away the early investment. The world can not find anyone who is really not bad money, "not bad money" only exists between the markets, when living leisurely, even if the government is as strong as the United States, it will owe a bunch of debts. Therefore, how to avoid the tiger not becoming an anti-dog, the technical pioneer did not succeed, but became a martyr, I believe it will be the core of most manufacturers in the process of great change, the need for careful thinking. This, as mentioned above, is the choice of the time point of entry;
12, as mentioned above, for manufacturers, the game has begun, do not think that you have not invested money and energy into it, you feel that you have not yet placed a bet, there is still time for you to slowly wait and see ... ... ...
Under such a background, China's motorcycle industry, where to go, where to go?! In the current environment, maybe the dead bump electric can find a little choice of door cracks.
The image below is Yamaha's FC-me fuel hydrogen concept car (profile picture) that was unveiled in 2005.
Pictured below, Yamaha's 1993 public display of electric pedals MEST (Minimum Electric System Transportation, the smallest and lightest electric mobility tool). Profile picture).
The image below is Suzuki's Burgman Fuel Cell (profile image) unveiled in 2015 with a hydrogen-fueled battery powertrain.
In the picture below, Japan's Toyota Toyota motor showed the second-generation fuel hydrogen battery module GEH2 (data picture) earlier this month. Toyota began developing fuel cells in 1992, and the new second-generation hydrogen battery modules, assembled by the European manufacturing team at the R&D center of TME (Toyota Motor Europe) in Brussels, were first released at the end of September last year.
Picture below is of Bosch Bosch, which provides fuel hydrogen batteries for trucks and passenger cars (data image).
Pictured below, Volvo Volvo's hydrogen-fueled battery modules produced in collaboration with the Daimler Group, as well as Daimler heavy-duty trucks that are currently being tested internally and are scheduled to be tested with customers starting in 2023 using a powertrain of hydrogen-fueled batteries (profile image).
Image below, bmw group released last year's i Hydrogen Next fuel hydrogen battery powertrain (data image).
(To be continued)