Starting in 2023, the domestic real estate market has accelerated the pace of adjustment. After entering 2024, the real estate market has not changed the trend of "volume and price falling" last year. In March, the average price of second-hand housing in Baicheng was 15,088 yuan / square meter, down 0.56% month-on-month, and it has fallen month-on-month for 23 consecutive months. At the same time, the number of cities with a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in 100 cities in March was 98, and the number of cities with second-hand housing prices falling has exceeded 90 cities for 10 consecutive months.
In addition, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 779.24 billion yuan from January to March, a year-on-year decrease of 47.5%. Even the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies this year has almost been cut in half, so other small and medium-sized real estate companies will definitely not have a good time. In addition, starting from 2023, large domestic real estate companies such as Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden, Sunac and other large real estate companies have defaulted on their debts and unfinished buildings, which has caused many families to suffer significant economic losses. And these real estate companies are also because of the consequences of crazy land expansion and land acquisition in the past few years and high debt management.
In fact, the current situation of the domestic real estate market has long been said by Li Ka-shing. As early as 2018, Li Ka-shing made a prediction: housing prices will face a major reshuffle in the next five years, speculation needs to be cautious, and the debt expansion of many mainland developers will come to an end. At that time, it was the boom cycle of the domestic real estate market, and Li Ka-shing's speech did not attract enough attention from all walks of life. Some people believe that Li Ka-shing must be old and confused when he keeps sounding the alarm in the real estate market. From the current point of view, Li Ka-shing's prediction of the property market at that time was quite accurate.
In fact, the current trend of adjustment in the domestic real estate market does not have a big impact on those families who only own one property, because the purpose of their purchase is to live in it. However, for those families who own 2 or more homes, the impact is more profound. In the future, these families may face the following 3 results, let's take a look:
First, property prices are falling and assets are shrinking
Judging from the cities where second-hand housing fell in 100 cities in March this year, there were as many as 98 cities where house prices fell month-on-month, and only 2 cities saw house prices rise. This means that families with two or more properties in the city are facing a gradual decline in assets. In previous years, the cities where housing prices fell were still in second- and third-tier cities such as Zhengzhou and Tianjin.
Since last year, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have fallen. Taking Shanghai as an example, the housing prices in some central urban areas are only 60,000-70,000 yuan per square meter, which has fallen by 30-40% compared with the peak of more than 100,000 yuan per square meter in 2021. Therefore, families with two or more properties may face the result of shrinking assets.
Second, the market has seen a surge in listings, and second-hand houses are difficult to sell
It is difficult for families who own two or more properties to sell their homes for cash. As of the beginning of April this year, the number of second-hand housing listings in many places has reached a new high, with more than 270,000 units in Chongqing, 190,000 units in Tianjin, about 177,800 units in Suzhou, and about 147,000 units in Beijing. Moreover, the number of second-hand housing listings is still surging.
This shows that more and more second-hand house owners are not optimistic about the market outlook and want to sell their houses for cash. It also indicates that as the property market has lost its money-making effect, the demand for housing below is shrinking. To be sure, as the number of listings in the market continues to increase, it will become more and more difficult for second-hand homes to be sold for cash.
Third, the pressure of housing ownership is rising, and multiple suites are cumbersome
Many people who own multiple properties now say that there is increasing pressure to own a home. On the one hand, after years of the pandemic, many people have lost their incomes or lost their jobs, and even their lives are tight, and they don't have much money to repay the loans for so many properties.
On the other hand, if you own more than one property, you also have to pay various expenses such as property fees, heating fees, and maintenance funds. And as prices continue to rise every year, so will these costs, which will undoubtedly put more pressure on households with multiple homes.
Five years ago, Li Ka-shing predicted that there would be a major reshuffle in the real estate market in the future, and from the current point of view, not only the decline in housing prices and the difficulty of selling houses, but also the situation of debt defaults and unfinished buildings in some large real estate companies. Obviously, Li Ka-shing's previous prediction was correct.
In the face of the current real estate market adjustment trend, families with 2 or more houses in the future may face the above 3 results. If you own more than two properties, you should sell them at a low price for cash while the price of the property has not fallen sharply. Otherwise, families with multiple properties in the future will end up rotting in their own hands.