How far are humanoid robots coming into the home?

Globe.com

2024-05-25 07:37Posted on the official account of Beijing Global Network

Editor's note: "Whether you like it or not, soon our world will be full of robots walking in crowds, not bulky machines in science fiction movies, but as elegant and flexible as humans." Fox News in the United States issued such an emotion on the 22nd. It is also widely believed in the industry that breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) models have accelerated the era of humanoid robots. However, despite the growing popularity of the term humanoid robots, most people have never actually encountered them...... So, how far is it from humanoid robots entering homes and participating in production? Is it a distant dream for everyone to have a robot? Recently, the reporter of "Global Times" walked into a number of domestic humanoid robot companies, interviewed a number of experts who have been working in the field of humanoid robots for many years, and discussed the development and challenges of humanoid robots with them.

Tesla humanoid robot "Optimus Prime"

The birth of a humanoid robot

In mid-March, Figure AI, an American humanoid robotics startup, posted a video on social media showing that the Figure 01 robot developed by the company could not only talk to the experimenter after being connected to the OpenAI model, but also hand him the apple on the table after hearing the experimenter's command "I want to eat something". After the video was released, some people exclaimed that "the future is here".

In fact, the humanoid robot Walker S, independently developed by the Chinese robotics company UBTECH, can also understand some of people's instructions after being equipped with Baidu's AI model, including folding clothes and handing fruits. Through a period of interviews, the reporter of the "Global Times" found that domestic humanoid robots not only did not lag behind foreign products in terms of function, but also had their own expertise in some fields.

At the end of April, at the press conference of the Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center (hereinafter referred to as the "Innovation Center") in Yizhuang, a humanoid robot named "Tiangong" ran onto the stage at a stable speed of 6km/h. Xiong Youjun, general manager of the innovation center, told the Global Times, "This comes from self-confidence, and the usual training is successful." We have achieved the world's first fully electrically driven full-scale humanoid robot to run humanoidally. The Global Times reporter later found out at close range when he visited the innovation center that the running gait of "Tiangong" was more anthropomorphic and natural, while the humanoid robots released abroad were often bent or "ostrich-like" walking.

While the leading companies continue to refresh the records in the field of humanoid robots, a number of start-ups have also begun to attract market attention. Walking in the snow is a laborious and easy thing to wrestle, let alone a robot. On the day before New Year's Day 2024, Chen Jianyu, an assistant professor at the Institute for Interdisciplinary Information Sciences of Tsinghua University, developed the humanoid robot "Xiaoxing" wandering in the snow for a long time. Recently, Robert Pratt, CEO of Boston Dynamics, visited the robotics company Star Epoch helmed by Chen Jianyu, and was deeply impressed by the snow walking and dexterous hands of "Little Star".

How did these humanoid robots that can run, communicate, and work come about? In a science park in Beijing's Haidian district, a humanoid robotics start-up, Songyan Power, is training its robots day in and day out. From the perspective of the composition of humanoid robots, it mainly includes the robot body, motors, joints, sensors, controllers and other components, as well as software systems. Enterprises like Songyan Power that are beginning to take shape, they are more likely to buy parts and components to assemble robots by themselves, and core technologies such as algorithms are in their own hands.

Zhang Shipu, the company's chief executive, pointed to a prototype and told reporters that they had developed the robot in 42 days, and the localization rate of parts reached 98%. For larger-scale robotics companies, many of their components are self-produced. According to reports, joints are an important part of determining the flexibility of the robot, and it is also the "big head" of the cost of a humanoid robot, so they began to develop their own joints in 2018, not relying on imports, "holding the core technology in hand." "At present, MindMind's humanoid robot products have achieved a certain mass production in the Shanghai factory, in which the parts are machined, and the assembly of the robot also relies on mature engineers to complete it manually. Xiong Youjun told reporters that it is not complicated to produce a humanoid robot on the assembly line, but it is complicated to design and determine the parameters in the early stage.

After assembling the robot, whether it can be trained well will determine the size of the robot's capabilities. Zhang Shipu said that they share a vision and perception system with the robot by wearing VR glasses and other operating equipment, so as to "teach" the robot how to grasp, hold, take, twist and other actions, and this training cycle takes at least 1 to 2 months. MindMinds takes another technical route, they build a cloud database to train robots in virtual scenes, in their opinion, cloud databases can carry more complex calculations, and humanoid robots with "brains" connected to the cloud will be smarter.

Chinese engineers have confidence in their technology

A humanoid robot can be understood as a robot with a human-like appearance and behavior made using artificial intelligence and robotics. In 1973, Ichiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University in Japan, spent about five years developing WABOT-1, the prototype of a humanoid robot. After 51 years, what progress has humanoid robots made? What stage of development have we reached so far?

According to a report provided to the Global Times by the China Electronics Information Industry Development Research Institute (CCID Research Institute), the development process of humanoid robots can be divided into four stages. Early stage of development (70s of the 20th century - 2000): At this time, humanoid robots began to take on the form of human torso and limbs, but the hands and legs could only make simple movements. Highly integrated development stage (2001-2011): With the technological progress of perception system and interaction system, humanoid robots can achieve limited interaction with the external environment at this stage, and the degree of freedom of movement is improved, and other simple actions other than walking can be realized. For example, in 2003, Toyota released the "Music Companion Robot", which can play musical instruments such as blowing trumpets and playing the violin. Highly dynamic motion and interaction ability improvement stage (2012-2020): Reinforcement learning allows humanoid robots to continuously optimize their actions and behaviors in the interaction with the environment, and the emotion recognition and language interaction technologies have been significantly improved. For example, in 2013, the bipedal robot Altas released by Boston Dynamics in the United States has strong balance and obstacle crossing ability, and can undertake search and rescue missions in dangerous environments. Highly intelligent development stage (2020-present): Entering the stage of intelligent advancement and commercialization acceleration.

In the eyes of foreign media, the competition in the field of humanoid robots among the world's major scientific and technological powers is becoming increasingly fierce. For example, the White House released the "National Artificial Intelligence R&D Strategic Plan" in May 2023, providing more than 930.5 million US dollars of support for related research, and the EU's "Horizon Europe" plans to invest about 100 billion euros from 2021 to 2027 to strengthen the EU's scientific and technological base, including robotics innovation. In October 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", proposing that humanoid robots are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smart phones, and new energy vehicles, and plan to establish a humanoid robot innovation system by 2025, and by 2027, the technological innovation ability of humanoid robots will be significantly improved, and the comprehensive strength will reach the world's advanced level.

2021-2026 Chinese humanoid robot industry scale and forecast

In a recent interview, the "Global Times" reporter felt the deepest is that domestic humanoid robot companies adhere to independent research and development and the engineers' confidence in their own technology. "Compared with foreign companies, 'Tiangong' runs more anthropomorphic, thanks to the fact that our algorithm is self-developed, which has certain advantages compared with American companies such as Tesla and Figure AI." Xiong Youjun told the Global Times that the unique algorithm of the "Tiangong" robot makes it more power-efficient, with 30% more battery life than the traditional algorithm, and the load has also increased by 30%-50%. In addition, the "Tiangong" learning method combines the advantages of reinforcement learning with traditional dynamics, making it more stable and adaptable.

Zhang Shipu also told reporters that China has certain technical advantages in the field of robot control, algorithms and software, and the level of large models is also improving rapidly.

Xiong Youjun also said that they are still facing a lot of technical challenges, "some task robots can do it in scene A, but they may not be able to do it in scene B, we must focus on solving the adaptability of humanoid robots, so that they can be applied in different scenarios." At present, we are mainly focusing on updating and iterating, developing core technologies, and will release 2.0 products next."

In addition to technology, many domestic companies are optimistic about the commercial development prospects of Chinese humanoid robots. Huang Xiaoqing, founder of MindMinds, told the Global Times that the development and industrial landing of humanoid robots involves four key areas, namely artificial intelligence, 5G/6G, electromechanical manufacturing and operating systems, and China occupies a leading position in the latter three fields. In the future, the commercialization level of Chinese humanoid robots will continue to improve.

Pension will be one of the key application directions

Why do humans go to such lengths to develop humanoid robots, and what exactly does it do? South Korea's "Daily Economic News" English website "Pulse News" reported on the 21st that the global competition for humanoid robots is becoming more and more intense, and both China and the United States hope to lead a potential change that may shake up labor-intensive industries such as manufacturing and logistics, in addition to the military and security fields.

Liu Jinchang, a researcher at the High-tech Center of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, told the Global Times that the manufacturing industry represented by the automobile industry will be the first application scenario for humanoid robots. According to Reuters, in January this year, Figure AI has reached a cooperation with the German car company BMW to apply humanoid robots in BMW's US factories, while Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in April that Tesla's humanoid robot "Optimus Prime" may be on sale as soon as the end of next year, and it is still in the laboratory research and development stage. UBTECH recently revealed that its industrial version of the humanoid robot Walker S has been undergoing "practical training" at NIO's new energy vehicle factory.

"In the past, the 3C industry (computer, communication, and consumer electronics three major technology products integrated application of the information appliance industry) has tried to introduce industrial robots on the factory assembly line, but many delicate work is not competent, now humanoid robots have dexterous hands and hand-eye coordination, can try to be used in the automobile assembly line." Liu Jinchang said.

However, there are also some experts who express "cold thinking" about the landing application of humanoid robots. Zhao Mingguo, director of the Robot Control Laboratory of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times that the highest level of automobile manufacturing is a high degree of automation, and the current robotic arm can replace humanoid robots to solve problems, and it is still a low-cost solution. There is also an opinion that humanoid robots are now pursuing "running fast", but this performance does not seem to be related to automobile production. Zhao Mingguo believes that scientific research, education and warehousing and logistics are areas where humanoid robots can play their skills, "Every item in the e-commerce warehouse is different, and it is difficult to identify and grab goods with traditional automation methods." ”

In January this year, the robot developed by the Chinese team of Stanford University and the Google DeepMind team that can not only do housework, but also fry eggs and cook rice was unveiled, which caused heated discussions on the Internet, and many people called "the hope of using robots to care for the elderly", which also shows that the family scene is the application direction that the public is more concerned about.

"In the future, humanoid robots may become the ultimate solution to the problem of human pension." In Liu Jinchang's view, elderly care will be one of the key application directions of humanoid robots, including companion robots that can relieve loneliness for the elderly, and nursing robots that take care of the disabled elderly 24 hours a day. "I'm more concerned about whether these robots can help me do the housework automatically." A young office worker told reporters.

In an interview, the Global Times reporter found that in order to achieve commercial landing earlier, some domestic companies have taken wheeled humanoid robots as their main research and development products. At the Beijing headquarters of MindMinds Robot, the reporter saw that the company's wheeled humanoid robot was used in service scenarios such as making coffee and welcoming reception, "The hand is the real part of the work, at this stage we not only 'roll' the bipedal robot, but also hope to strengthen the landing possibility of the humanoid robot by controlling the cost." The relevant person in charge of the company said.

Liu Jinchang believes that although the world has accumulated a certain amount of humanoid robot technology, but whether it can be applied in practical terms, but also depends on its economic accessibility and its own degree of intelligence, "At present, there is still a lot of work for humanoid robots to do, and the price has not dropped to a reasonable level." ”

"This year is a pivotal year for the development of humanoid robots"

In an interview, the Global Times reporter found that many leading humanoid robot companies have set certain mass production targets this year.

On May 13, Unitree Technology, a domestic robot company, released a humanoid robot Unitree G1 priced at 99,000 yuan, which attracted great attention. According to the official demo video, the G1 robot is able to complete tasks such as "carp fighting" and smashing walnuts. According to the information provided by the company to the Global Times, the robot is about 127 centimeters tall, weighs about 35 kilograms, and has a battery life of 2 hours.

"At present, the main thing that restricts humanoid robots from being applied on a large scale is the current robot AI, which has not broken through the critical point. However, in recent years, the technological progress of AI has been very fast, and we are relatively optimistic, we feel that there will be small breakthroughs in the last 1-2 years, and 3-5 years, which is enough to achieve breakthroughs and qualitative changes. Wang Xingxing, founder of Unitree Technology, said in an interview with the Global Times.

According to the official website of Goldman Sachs Group, in February this year, analysts at Goldman Sachs Research reversed the forecast a year ago and re-estimated that the global humanoid robot market will reach $38 billion by 2035, much higher than the previous estimate of $6 billion; Shipments will reach 1.4 million units, a fourfold increase from the previous figure; In addition, the material cost of humanoid robots will be reduced by 40%, and the company will be profitable faster.

"Humanoid robots are on the eve of an explosion." Xiong Youjun told the Global Times that it is expected that some businesses will start delivering by the end of this year, and the initial volume may be hundreds or thousands of units. In 5 years, we can see humanoid robots entering various fields, and the volume of deliveries will also become huge. As for when humanoid robots will be able to enter the family, Xiong Youjun believes that it should be divided into two steps, one is to realize the companion function of emotional communication, and the other is to realize the function of housework, which will take longer to develop.

Zhao Mingguo said that there are many challenges to truly realize the mass production of humanoid robots, including how to control the yield rate and how to solve the post-maintenance problems. The humanoid robot company revealed to the Global Times reporter that the current production of humanoid robots still relies on manual assembly.

"Once you can achieve a functional breakthrough in software or develop a special large model of a humanoid robot, then it doesn't cost a lot of money to make a humanoid robot, it may be 100,000 yuan, 50,000 yuan, 30,000 yuan or even 10,000 yuan, just like building a toy." Liu Jinchang said that according to this development, "it is not surprising that there will be a robot in every family in the future, and there will be several robots." ”

"This year is definitely a key year for the development of humanoid robots, but it is by no means the first year of industrialization." Liu Jinchang said that the current global humanoid robots are still in the early stage of industrialization, and some humanoid robots have indeed achieved certain functions and can do some seemingly difficult actions, but in fact, they are far from human coordination and have not reached the expectation of being able to go to the production scene. However, this year, some companies have tried to use humanoid robots, "in order to better identify the application direction of humanoid robots".

In the eyes of many enterprises, humanoid robots can only be continuously optimized by "trial and error" in the factory, and they are closer to the real application. Relevant enterprises also hope that manufacturing enterprises can dare to innovate and take the first step to provide application scenarios for humanoid robots. And this is also inseparable from the promotion and support of the government.

View original image 4.48M

• 

•