Keep an eye on Li Ka-shing

Chinese businessman Taoluo was the runner-up

2024-05-18 10:30Published in Beijing Huashang Taolue, producer, creator in the field of finance

Author: Bi Yajun

　　After yesterday's series of new real estate policies, several friends asked whether house prices will rise sharply again, and is it time to buy a house?

【1】

　　Some time ago, Xu Gao, an adjunct professor at Peking University's National School of Development, said he was worried that urban housing prices would rise sharply in the next few years.

　　I generally don't dare to draw a conclusion, but for Professor Xu's worries, I can make a conclusion.

Worry about being redundant and deceiving people.

　　Except for very few special real estate, in the next few years, the housing prices of the vast majority of real estate in most cities will not rise sharply, and there is a high probability that they will not rise.

　　The reasons, first, there are enough houses, and everyone's mentality and concept of houses have changed; Second, and most crucially, housing prices are still relatively high in most places.

　　I have said in other articles that the fundamental problem of real estate is not that houses are built too quickly and too much, but that housing prices are too high and too overdrawn.

　　But so far, this problem has not been fundamentally solved, especially at the level of new housing. This is also the reason why many new houses are not sold and have no price.

　　Compare the ease of making money in the past and present, and the expectations of the future; Compare income and housing prices, think about how to live a comfortable life, whether housing prices are high or not, and the answer is clear.

【2】

　　Some people say that the first set of 15% down payment and the second set of 25% new deal will definitely stimulate people to re-speculate.

　　Do you want to pay only 15% and the remaining 85% for the first set?

　　If you think so, it will definitely stimulate speculation.

　　Otherwise, at this price and environment, only a true warrior would dare to speculate.

　　A 15% down payment means 85% of the loan, and it means that if it falls by 15%, you will be laundered, and then you will have to pay back 85% of the loan.

　　What is not afraid of being laundered, daring to take out loans for the bank, not a real warrior?

　　The times call for warriors.

　　Others say that a down payment of 15% means that the relevant parties believe that house prices will not fall by more than 15%, and they also hope and will control that house prices will not fall by more than 15%.

　　It's also a reference,

　　bar.

　　Not only do they not want house prices to fall by more than 15%, but I don't want them to fall at all.

　　But did they get it?

　　If there were, there would be no need for a bailout today.

　　As for whether you just need to buy a house?

The focus is not on house prices, but on their own money.

　　If you live on your own and have enough money (preferably without a loan, or if you have an easy and long-term loan repayment), you can buy it at any time.

　　Lives on your own. Up, you own this suite; Fall, you still own this suite.

　　You don't buy or sell, it doesn't matter what goes up or down.

　　This is not my opinion, but Li Ka-shing's long-term view. Every time he was asked by the media if it was time to buy a house, he was:

If you live for a long time and can afford it, it is an ideal time to buy a house at any time.

【3】

　　Over the years, everyone's views on Li Ka-shing have been quite different. But there is one point, which is becoming more and more consensus.

　　When it comes to judging housing prices, real estate, and even economic trends, Jiang is still Li Ka-shing's spicy.

　　If you're no smarter than Li Ka-shing when it comes to the heart market, then:

Keep an eye on Li Ka-shing.

　　Just follow his rhythm.

　　So far, according to what he has done, the results have basically been relatively good.

　　For example, buying a house when he is reluctant to sell, and selling a house when he sells, is basically relatively cost-effective.

　　But you don't expect him to get you the cheapest and the highest sell. He doesn't pursue this himself. One of his famous quotes is:

Never earn the last copper plate.

　　It's not that I don't want to, but I don't believe it. He didn't believe he had what it could do.

　　What is Li Ka-shing doing now?

　　Selling a house at a discount, selling a house at a loss.

　　——END——

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