With 300,000 cash in hand, should I buy a house in 2024? Let's take a look at what Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing have to say!

New Talks on Real Estate

2024-05-27 06:00Published in Henan

In recent months, the country's rescue efforts have become more and more vigorous, except for a few first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, other cities have basically fully relaxed the purchase restriction policy, and large-scale bailouts have also been launched in various places. It can be said that now the mainland real estate industry has begun the third round of bailouts, and from the perspective of down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates, this bailout is very large, which is greater than the previous two rounds of bailouts. Under this bailout policy, people are also beginning to worry about the rebound in housing prices.

So, in the face of this node in 2024, should we get involved in the property market and buy real estate? This issue is undoubtedly the focus of public opinion at present. Looking back on the past 20 years, the decision of whether to buy a house or not seems to have become a stone in everyone's heart, weighing heavily on their hearts, and the opinions of all parties are also different, and there is no consensus.

In recent years, housing prices have been falling, and the current property market policy is very good, according to common sense, this seems to provide a rare opportunity for those who urgently need to buy a house. After all, it is not difficult for us to see from the long river of history that whenever the market is bailed out, housing prices will pull back, which is always accompanied by a wave of housing boom. However, today's real estate market is no longer what it used to be, and high housing prices are still prohibitive. Many people are worried, worried that once they set foot in this property market, whether housing prices will continue to fall, whether the value of their property will shrink significantly, and the accumulation of years of hard work will be in vain?

But for those who just need to buy a house, the primary purpose of buying a house is nothing more than to live and work in peace and contentment. But who wants to see their house devalued? Especially in this era of high housing prices, a house often means a person's or even a family's life savings, and it is accompanied by mortgage pressure for up to twenty or thirty years. Therefore, in the face of such a market environment, we naturally need to be more prudent and rational when making home purchase decisions.

Obviously, for many people who urgently need to buy a home, the decision to buy a home has become extremely complex and tricky. If you don't choose to buy a home, you are worried that house prices may return to the soaring trend of the past, causing you to miss out on opportunities and eventually fall into an even more unaffordable situation. Once you decide to buy a house, you are afraid that house prices may continue to decline in the future, which will cause the value of the property to shrink significantly. Therefore, under the current housing price situation, many people feel confused and at a loss. As a typical example of Mr. Zhang, as a young man who has just entered the society, he is planning to buy a house recently. His parents provided $200,000 in financial support, and with the savings he had saved from years of hard work, he already had $300,000 in cash on hand. This amount of money is enough for a down payment on the outskirts of his city to buy a property. However, as housing prices continue to fall this year, Mr. Zhang is deeply entangled.

On the one hand, as a buyer who just needs to buy a house, Mr. Zhang urgently needs a house to meet his living needs and lay the foundation for his future married life. But on the other hand, he is worried that he will become a victim of a high-level takeover, and once he buys a property, the price of housing will continue to fall, which will bring him huge financial pressure. Therefore, on the issue of buying a house, Mr. Zhang has always been hesitant and difficult to make a decision. In the face of Mr. Zhang's confusion, the author believes that his city, as the provincial capital of the central region, has broad development prospects and great potential. Moreover, considering Mr. Zhang's own demand for housing and the fact that the current housing prices have not yet reached a high level, the author recommends that he make a decisive move to buy a house. Of course, if Mr. Zhang's purpose in buying a house is to invest, then the author will not give such advice. Because the current property market environment is no longer suitable for the public to invest in real estate. Under the current property market situation, housing prices have lost the basis for a sharp rise, and the trend of housing prices will tend to stabilize in the future. Not only is it difficult to guarantee a return on investment property, but it is also increasingly risky.

When it comes to the prospect of continuing to invest in real estate, Wang Jianlin's attitude is cautious and clear, and he is no longer optimistic about the future of the real estate industry. In an interview with the media, Wang Jianlin once profoundly pointed out that it is impossible for any country's real estate industry to maintain a trend of rapid development forever, and there has never been a country's real estate boom in history that can last for more than half a century, and the mainland's real estate industry has gone through a glorious 30 years. Since the reform of residential commercialization in 1998, the real estate industry in mainland China has been riding a high-speed train, speeding all the way, ushering in an unprecedented golden period of development. However, today, with the in-depth development of the industry, the shortage of housing resources has been greatly alleviated, and there is even a surplus in some areas. This is the key to Wang's cautious approach to the real estate sector, which seems to have reached its ceiling.

Therefore, Wang Jianlin made a decisive decision to lead Wanda Group to start a transformation journey, gradually fading out of the real estate industry and seeking new growth points. However, this does not mean that he completely denies the value of real estate. For first- and second-tier cities, Wang Jianlin is still optimistic about their future development potential. He believes that these cities have developed economies and abundant employment opportunities, and can continue to attract influx of people, which will drive up housing prices steadily. At a public event in 2013, Wang Jianlin expressed his views on the trend of housing prices over the next decade. He firmly believes that there is still a lot of room for housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, mainly due to their unique supply and demand relationship. In contrast, Wang Jianlin has reservations about third- and fourth-tier cities where population loss continues, believing that housing prices in these cities will rebound.

Looking back at Wang Jianlin's prediction, his prediction can be described as extremely accurate. Although housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities once soared, they were actually driven by the monetization and resettlement policy of shantytown reform. However, with the gradual replacement of the monetized resettlement of shantytowns with the old reform policy, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have stood at a high level, losing the dual support of funds and demolition households. Now involved in the real estate market in these cities, there is undoubtedly a great risk of becoming a "pick-up man".

As for the future development potential of the real estate industry, business tycoon Li Ka-shing is also pessimistic. He bluntly said that the current housing prices are staggeringly high and beyond the reach of most people. When most people can't afford to buy a home, house prices naturally lose the cornerstone of their continued rise. Today's market pattern is as Li Ka-shing said, although there are many houses, there are more people who cannot afford them. Under the heavy pressure of the property market control policy, speculators have withdrawn one after another and began to sell their properties. In today's property market, only real buyers are struggling to support them, but most of them are also unable to afford high housing prices.

In this situation, the development potential of the real estate industry is already very small. Like Li Jianlin, Li Ka-shing is gradually withdrawing from the real estate industry. He once said that he would not earn the last copper plate. In Li Ka-shing's view, today's real estate industry is like the last copper plate, although tempting, but the risk is great, and the development potential is almost exhausted.

There is no doubt that there are still opportunities for the real estate industry in the future. As a place where people live, the essence of a house is not only a residence, but also a consumer product that carries the quality of life and dreams. As long as people's yearning for a better life remains unchanged and the demand for high-quality living space continues, the development of the real estate industry will not stagnate.

With the progress of the times and the development of the economy, people's material life is gradually enriched, and the quality requirements for the living environment are also increasing. In the future, not only will the real estate market in first-tier and second-tier hotspot cities continue to remain vibrant, but also those high-quality and well-designed mid-to-high-end residences will show great development potential. However, we must be soberly aware that the current property market has stood at a new historical starting point. At this turning point, it is undoubtedly wise to buy a home as an owner-occupier need. However, if you blindly follow the trend with an investment mentality, then the risks you face will also increase.

View original image 173K

• 

• 

• 

• 

•