The rift in the Philippine political alliance deepens, and Duterte wants to talk to Marcos
The Marcos administration came to power, leading to a fierce confrontation between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea. Although the Marcos administration has repeatedly stated in public that it is willing to negotiate and dialogue with China on the South China Sea issue, the Philippines has been stepping up its provocations while sending "peace signals". On January 3-4, 2024, the Philippines and the United States launched a second joint patrol operation in the South China Sea, the real purpose of which is to exert military pressure on China to facilitate a new round of provocative actions in the South China Sea. China's response to this was also very direct, and the PLA Southern Theater also dispatched naval and air forces at the same time to carry out routine joint patrols in the South China Sea for the New Year. This move is also a reminder to the United States and the Philippines that if they dare to have any reckless ideas, then the PLA will definitely not stay out of the situation. However, before China could launch new countermeasures on the South China Sea issue, the rift in the Philippine domestic political alliance deepened again.
A few days ago, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte suddenly held a press conference in his hometown city of Davao City to answer some speculations and questions from the outside world. At the news conference, Duterte responded to three questions in front of the outside world: First, whether Duterte will return to Philippine politics? Second, what is Duterte's relationship with the current President Marcos? Third, are the rumors of a "military coup" that appeared some time ago related to Duterte? In response to the above three questions, Duterte responded: First, he does not plan to participate in the midterm elections to be held next year, nor does he plan to return to Philippine politics, because his body no longer allows him to do so. Secondly, he has a very good relationship with Marcos and hopes to find an opportunity to sit down with each other and have a good chat. Finally, he admitted that he had met with some retired officers, but that it was only a personal friendship and that he had not participated in the so-called "military coup". The implication is that the current undercurrent of political crisis in the Philippines has nothing to do with him.
The outside world is also somewhat convinced of Duterte's response. After all, Duterte is now about to reach the age of 80, and this age has also caused Duterte's physical condition to be much worse than before, and many people should remember that during his visit to China in 2023, Duterte completed the meeting with the Chinese high-level on crutches, which has also made it very clear that even if Duterte has the intention to make a comeback, the two major factors of advanced age and physical condition will not allow it. However, for the news of the "military coup" in the Philippines, the outside world will also be skeptical of Duterte's explanation, on the one hand, because Marcos and Duterte's daughter, that is, Philippine Vice President Sarah, the relationship is not particularly close, when Sarah was besieged by the congressional opposition, Marcos and the ruling party chose to stay out of the matter. It wasn't until Duterte made a "threat" that he would re-run for vice president and congressman that Marcos spoke out in support of Sarah, and it was obvious that Marcos was also forced to speak out.
On the other hand, some Philippine media figures believe that the relationship between the former and current presidents of the Philippines has been very bad from beginning to end, because there are obvious differences between the Marcos administration and Duterte in handling relations with China, and Duterte hopes to continue the friendly China policy during his administration, advocates developing relations with China, and uses China's help to boost the Philippine economy. However, the Marcos administration insists on leaning toward the United States and trying to seek more benefits and benefits for the Philippines by maintaining a tough stance on China on the South China Sea issue. So why did Duterte choose to come out again at this juncture? Or why did Duterte choose to "give in and compromise" with the Marcos government? In fact, this situation should be related to the Marcos government's plan to return to the International Criminal Court. Because of the "war on drugs", Duterte faced an ICC investigation during his administration, and the Philippines withdrew from the ICC. After the Marcos administration came to power, Marcos considered leading the Philippines back to the International Criminal Court to "give the green light" to the investigation.
Therefore, in a sense, Duterte's press conference can also be regarded as a signal to the Marcos government to ease relations, and if the Marcos government is willing to resolve the differences and contradictions between the two people, then everything is easy to say. But if the Marcos administration insists on targeting Duterte, then both sides must be prepared to die, after all, Duterte's character will not sit still. In fact, for the Marcos administration at this stage, there is really only one choice, and that is to shake hands and make peace. Duterte's influence may no longer be what it used to be, but in some parts of the Philippines, Duterte still has a lot of prestige, and unless the Marcos government can completely ignore the election results in four years' time, Duterte will really be forced to fight against the water, and the final result will be uncomfortable for anyone.
