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Eurozone progress against inflation may be hampered in April The economy is expected to return to growth

author:Sina Finance

The eurozone inflation pullback could come to a halt for the first time this year in April, with the region's economy emerging from a mild recession in late 2023 in the previous quarter.

The median estimate of economists surveyed is that consumer prices could rise by 2.4% year-on-year. They expect GDP to grow by 0.1% in the first quarter.

Tuesday's reports are likely to be in line with the ECB's views when it made its decision earlier this month. At the time, ECB President Christine Lagarde described the economy as weak and expected a "bumpy road" in the path of inflation decline.

Eurozone progress against inflation may be hampered in April The economy is expected to return to growth

With this prospect in mind, policymakers are preparing to cut interest rates at their June 6 meeting to ease the magnitude of policy tightening in the eurozone after an unprecedented tightening cycle.

While headline inflation numbers are likely to remain unchanged after tensions in the Middle East have led to soaring energy costs, the underlying inflation measure, which excludes such volatile items, could reassure officials that inflation is still on the downside.

Economists expect core inflation to slow to 2.6% in April, marking a step closer to the 2% target. Policymakers believe inflation will reach target by the middle of next year.

Upcoming national reports are likely to further validate Lagarde's expectations about data volatility. Inflation reports from Germany and Spain, due on Monday, are expected to show gains, but are expected to be offset by inflation data from France and Italy on Tuesday.

Eurozone progress against inflation may be hampered in April The economy is expected to return to growth

At the same time, the modest pickup in economic growth may partly reflect the growing agreement between Lagarde and economists that the German economy has reached a turning point. The weakness of the German economy weighed on the eurozone for some time, but it may now be recovering.

Eurozone progress against inflation may be hampered in April The economy is expected to return to growth

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