On April 22, the United States and the Philippines began shoulder-to-shoulder exercises. It is said to be the largest joint exercise ever conducted between the two countries, with the United States sending 11,000 troops, and Japan, France, and the Philippines sending a total of 5,000 troops. The main exercise area is outside China's 10-dash line, and the exercises include: organizing an air defense and anti-missile exercise in central Luzon; conducting a "reconquista" exercise in Cagayan Province in the northern Philippines, near Taiwan, presumably assuming that a certain peninsula is seized by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and then jointly recaptured by the United States and the Philippines; and there are also routine subjects such as humanitarian relief.
Judging from the scale of the troops, the US military attaches great importance to this exercise. This also reflects the Biden administration's efforts to build momentum for the presidential election. The United States has been fooling and instigating the Marcos Jr. government in the Philippines to engage in confrontation with China. However, the Biden administration has not invested military resources on a large scale before, which has led to repeated setbacks for the Philippine Coast Guard at Second Thomas Shoal. In early April, the United States, the Philippines, Japan, and Australia conducted a joint maritime patrol in the South China Sea, but only five ships were dispatched. If this fool continues, the Philippines' confidence in being cannon fodder will be completely lost. If the Marcos Jr. administration loses confidence and abandons confrontation with China in the South China Sea, Biden's face will be ugly. Therefore, the Biden administration is determined to send more than 10,000 military personnel to participate in the exercise this time to support the Philippines and save face. This is also a rare big move by the US military in the first island chain in recent years.
Probably because of the support of the United States, Marcos Jr. also responded positively, and the Philippine military showed its biggest weapon---- the BrahMos shore-to-ship missile system imported from India, showing that the Philippines has the ability to threaten the security of China's Nansha islands and reefs. A few days ago, Marcos Jr. insisted that he did not know what kind of "gentleman's agreement" former President Duterte had with China. The undisclosed agreement between China and the Philippines was about the Sierra Madre on Second Thomas Shoal, and the conditions acceptable to both sides at that time were to maintain the status quo at Second Thomas Shoal, that China would not tow away the wrecked ship, that the Philippines would not reinforce it, and that neither side would carry out armed patrols at Second Thomas Shoal. In fact, Duterte did not admit that Ren'ai Jiao belongs to China and has not given up his claim to Ren'ai Jiao. However, Lao Du's position at that time was in line with China's principle of "shelving disputes and joint development". Therefore, this "gentlemen's agreement" has been recognized by China. But now, Marcos Jr. intends to use this agreement to get into trouble with Lao Du. He accused that Lao Du had reached a secret agreement with China, and did not tell the Filipino people or Congress, so he should be investigated and even prosecuted. Marcos Jr. even directly called out Lao Du on social media, saying that "if this is a wrong decision, you are responsible". It has been speculated that Marcos Jr. may ask the Philippine Senate to hold a hearing and call Lao Du to the court. This is not only to hit Lao Du himself, but also to crack down on the friendly forces against China in the Philippines.
However, can conducting joint military exercises with the United States and other countries solve the major problems facing the Philippines at home? What the Philippines urgently needs is to develop the economy and improve the people's livelihood, not to devote all its strength to competing with China for those small islands in the South China Sea; the more stiff relations with China become, the more unlikely the Philippines' chances of economic development will be, and this is the reason why Marcos Jr.'s approval rating has declined at a rate that is visible to the naked eye.
It can be said that the situation in the South China Sea is becoming more and more dangerous under the deliberate impetus of the United States and the brainless rush of the Philippines. In the next step, the Philippine Coast Guard and Navy will mobilize a larger force to attack China's defense lines at Ren'ai Jiao, Scarborough Shoal, Thitu Reef, and other points. I can assert that if the situation in the South China Sea continues to develop in this way, it is very likely that there will be two outcomes: first, the Philippines will lose ugly, and China may take the opportunity to recover all the eight Chinese islands and reefs illegally occupied by the Philippines; second, the United States will blindly fan the flames and put itself in a passive dilemma. If the situation in the South China Sea deteriorates, the United States will not have the strength and courage to engage in military confrontation with China in the South China Sea, and will be despised and spurned by its Asian allies for its inaction.