U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is back in China. Footage from news reports shows that the Chinese side did not roll out the red carpet for him, which reflects the cold attitude of the Chinese side, and presumably the talks between the two sides did not have much festive atmosphere. Before Blinken embarked on his visit to China, the U.S. government sent a "gift package" to China. According to reports, the U.S. government is studying that some Chinese banks will no longer be allowed to participate in international interbank transactions. Many analysts believe that this is only the first step in the warning, which may be followed by the complete severance of Chinese financial institutions from the SWIFT system, the interception of oil tankers from Iran to China, the freezing and confiscation of China's overseas assets, and so on. The analysis of foreign media also shows that the upper echelons of the United States have not failed to consider the consequences of these means that are close to declaring war. The Diplomat predicts that Blinken is expected to ask the Chinese side several questions, including the war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, as well as Xinjiang and fentanyl.
At present, the stalemate on the battlefield in Ukraine continues, and the Russian army did not immediately launch a large-scale offensive. If this stalemate continues, it will almost certainly drag on the war until the end of the year. Biden is likely to lose the presidential election for the sake of this unwinnable and unfinished war. After Trump takes office, he will inevitably find a way to get the United States out, and then liquidate whether Biden and other Democrats have filled their pockets through the war in Ukraine and military aid.
At the moment Russia shows no signs of defeat at all, on the contrary, the economy is growing rapidly. This is largely due to the boom in Sino-Russian trade. The Biden administration has been accusing China of helping Russia, but none of the previous rhetoric and attitudes have been so hysterical. Now, even the normal economic and trade between China and Russia is said to be "supporting Russia's defense industrial base." It can be seen that the United States has lost confidence in winning the war on the Ukraine issue. The Chinese side gave a clear response to this question before Blinken arrived. Sino-Russian trade is legitimate, and China is doing business with Russia for its own energy supply and people's livelihood needs. As for whether Russia's trade income from China is used for military spending or for street lamps, it is a matter within Russia's sovereignty. There is no reason for the United States to drag China into the ranks of the parties to the war in Ukraine.
The other problems were created by the US side to increase its bargaining chips. On the issue of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Blinken hopes that China will put pressure on Iran and not escalate tensions. This is a very absurd statement, and China has been working hard to help Iran achieve good-neighborliness, as evidenced by the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. Iran, on the other hand, does not need the persuasion of others to take the initiative to control the situation and prevent escalation. The substantive issue is that Israel wants to drag Iran into a local war, so that the United States will be trapped in West Asia and cannot get out. But judging from the scale of military aid, the Palestinian-Israeli issue is far less critical to the United States than the war in Ukraine, and none of the Middle Eastern countries intend to attack Israel itself.
As for the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, human rights in Xinjiang and fentanyl, strictly speaking, none of them are urgent crises for the United States. The mainland has repeatedly stressed that it will go all out to strive for peaceful reunification and will not use force until it is absolutely necessary. At present, it is clear that there is no atmosphere or necessity for an immediate settlement of the Taiwan issue by force. The issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea is just the Philippines, instigated by the United States, which has constantly challenged China, and other countries have accepted the principle of "shelving disputes and joint development". As for the human rights issue in Xinjiang, which is China's internal affair, the United States has repeatedly hyped it up and failed many times. The fentanyl issue is even more absurd, with the United States legalizing marijuana on the one hand and blaming China's chemical industry thousands of miles away on the other. Therefore, these issues are all bargaining chips deliberately created by the United States in an attempt to pressure China to make concessions.
In fact, China's countermeasures have long been made public. That is, to resolutely resist the pressure of the United States and not cut off Sino-Russian trade. If the U.S. really kicks Chinese financial institutions out of SWIFT, it will be conducive to the internationalization of the renminbi. Judging from the situation of this Canton Fair, the world's demand for Made in China is very strong, and these real commodities are hard currency and currency anchors. As for intercepting Chinese oil tankers, I believe that the United States will be able to do it at some point. But there are also quite a few friendly countries on the route from the Persian Gulf to China, and they do not want to see China's oil routes cut off. Therefore, the navy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army can take the opportunity to go out and carry out a wider range of escort patrols, which is beneficial to enhancing the combat capability of the PLA navy. And in the event of a real exchange of fire, the Indian Ocean route will still be within the fire coverage of the Rocket Forces. We can see who can't hold it up first.