In the face of performance and intelligence, traditional car companies still have a long way to go.
Author | Home scale from the planet Magnesia
On April 26, At the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan, USA, Ford is holding a ceremony to put into production a new pure electric pickup truck "F-150 Lightning". Halfway through the event, there was a sudden power outage at the scene and was forced to interrupt.
Coincidentally, the F-150 Lightning happens to have a power supply function. So with the help of several new cars, the whole stadium resumed lighting and the activity continued.
The "highly coincidental" blackout caused a heated discussion on U.S. social media. Many bloggers say this is nothing more than Ford's "orchestrated" marketing ploy to showcase the F-150 Lightning's new features.
But in any case, the new car has indeed received consumer enthusiasm, and there are currently more than 200,000 orders, far exceeding the existing capacity of the Ford plant.
At the press conference, Ford CEO Jim Farley was also full of confidence in the new car: "We want to surpass Tesla and become a leader in the global electric vehicle industry." Just 2 years ago, no one would have believed we would have done it, but looking at this car now, there is reason to continue believing. ”
Ford's great slogan
Ford in 2020 can be called the most miserable car company in the United States. First, it was forced to stop work due to the impact of the epidemic, and then the stock price fell to its lowest point since 2009. If it were not for the hard support of the F-series pickup trucks loved by Americans, this century-old car company would most likely fall into bankruptcy.
Ford's plight stemmed from former CEO Mark Fields' transformation plans. Faced with the onslaught of emerging tech companies like Google, Tesla and Uber, the CEO chose to transition to mobility companies rather than embrace electrification. Against the backdrop of large spending, Ford's performance continued to decline and its stock price fell. Jim Hackett, who succeeded him, was ambitious, but he also lacked the determination to transform electrification during his tenure.
It wasn't until Jim Farley took over as CEO that Ford finally ushered in radical reforms — accelerating its electrification strategy and changing for Ford's management team.
Within Ford, the strategy is dubbed "Ford+ Development Technologies," with the goal of investing more than $30 billion in electrification research and development in areas such as batteries by 2025, electrifying all of Ford's classic models. Based on the 2021 financial report data, $30 billion will be invested in electrification, which is almost equivalent to Ford's 60% family base.
What's more, the plan is backed by U.S. President Joe Biden's $174 billion investment plan, and Biden himself went to Michigan to test drive the F-150 Lightning mentioned at the beginning. After the test drive, Biden praised the car, shouting "to catch up with China in the field of electric vehicle manufacturing." ”
It is also with the financial confidence that Ford began to target its old local rival Tesla. At the Ford+ project press conference in March, Jim Farley made a harsh statement, "I want to defeat both old rivals and new forces." "The old rival here is not GM, it's Tesla.
How to challenge Tesla
In addition to financial guarantees, Ford found a new path – cooperation.
Holding hands with Volkswagen, investing in Rivian, and Ford in the field of electric vehicles, these two cooperations seem to be not shy about the two car companies will become the most direct competitors in the future. But Ford seems to know very well: Since the transition is lagging behind, it must be paced.
Ford and Volkswagen's entanglement, one is the cooperation of ARGO AI, the other is the MEB platform, truck platform vehicle cooperation, among them, the ID. family equipped with the MEB platform has proved to be a very good modular platform for electric vehicles in Europe, and Ford has developed the Mustang Mach-E (Electric Mustang) on this basis, with the goal of aligning with "Model Y".
Ford's partnership with Rivian is focused on the new company's technology, hoping to cut a short path. As early as September 2018, Ford and Rivian had their first negotiations, but at that time, Ford failed to achieve its profit targets, and the pressure on cash flow was greater, so the cooperation failed. Subsequently, Amazon led a $700 million round of financing from Rivian, and Ford's old rival GM saw The potential of Rivian and also joined the deal. Dramatically, Scaringe, the founder of Rivian, chose to work with Ford.
With the help of Rivian, Ford has developed rapidly in electric pickup trucks, and has also had the opportunity to cooperate with Amazon, enhancing its competitiveness in intelligence.
Of course, corporate cooperation in the automotive industry is no longer a rare thing, in the context of new car manufacturing, traditional car companies have long put down the arrogant posture and "clear" division of the past, and actively cooperate with technology companies outside the door of the automotive industry. With the help of "friends", Ford's electrification process naturally pressed the accelerator button, and had the confidence to compete with Tesla.
What step is trapped?
Although the Ford slogan is loud, what are the odds of surpassing Tesla?
We look at the Mach-E released in China, this new car that benchmarks the "Model Y" is full of gimmicks when it is released, but the landing effect is not obvious.
According to the data, in January 2022, the number of new cars in the car was only 352, while Tesla's sales of the Model Y alone reached 32,700. Ford attributed the problem to the unstable supply of batteries and the impact of capacity problems, so the sales performance was not satisfactory. According to public information, Mach-E is currently equipped with BYD's ternary lithium battery, which has been affected by many factors such as the epidemic, resulting in a reduction in the production capacity of BYD's Xi'an battery factory.
Then in February and March, Mach-E sales rose slightly, at 917 and 1,316 units, respectively, but they were still inferior in comparison with competitors.
Back in the United States, Mach-E's sales were also unsatisfactory, ranking third, but the annual sales were less than 30,000 units. Tesla's two models exceed 300,000 vehicles, occupying an unshakable leading advantage.
Figure | Q1 U.S. battery car sales, source: first electric
At present, the United States has become a veritable depression for electric vehicles, far behind China and Europe. Although Biden has proposed more than $100 billion in electric vehicle subsidies and $12,500 in tax incentives, these two incentives do not seem to be welcome for now.
In the case of difficult policies to guarantee, the development of new energy vehicles in the United States is still in a state of slow climbing, and the "turnaround battle" that Ford expects is naturally far away.
So does the F-150 Lightning, which has orders for more than 200,000 units, have a chance to change ford?
From the data point of view, although the penetration rate of pickup trucks in the United States is as high as more than 20%, the current popularity of electric pickup trucks is still far away, first of all, the high technical barriers of electric pickup trucks themselves have led to the difficulty of mass production of the model, and it is difficult for this model to cause waves outside the US market. Rivian's ebb and flow of heat reflects this.
Back to Ford itself, although the pace of electrification has been accelerated, fuel vehicles are still a business that cannot be discarded. From the financial report, Ford's profits mainly rely on the traditional automobile business, electric vehicles are only the future performance growth point, without the source of funds, the transformation will not be too aggressive.
There are also opinions that point out that Ford's transformation also faces the influence of American union organizations, and the transformation means that workers will lose their jobs, which is one of the problems that the company needs to consider.
There was news that Ford decided to split the electric vehicle and fuel vehicle businesses, named Ford Model e and Ford Blue respectively, and operated independently, of which the electric vehicle business was personally led by Jim Farley. Ford responded: "Focus on Ford+. ”
epilogue
"Benchmarking Tesla", just like "benchmarking Apple", has become a hot word in the field of battery cars. Not only Ford, but also many car companies have put forward such slogans.
But Tesla's two most important advantages at present: high performance and intelligence, there is still a gap between the new domestic forces, and the traditional car companies have a long way to go.