A few days ago, the Association released its april narrow passenger car retail sales forecast report. According to preliminary estimates, the retail sales of major manufacturers in April fell sharply year-on-year, and according to preliminary estimates, the national narrow passenger car retail sales this month are expected to be 1.1 million units, down 31.9% year-on-year.
According to the data of the Association, the average daily retail sales of major manufacturers in the first and second weeks of April were 24,600 units and 26,700 units, respectively, down 32% and 39% year-on-year, respectively. The association expects the auto market to recover in the third week of April, driven by the resumption of work and production in the industry, and the average daily retail sales of major manufacturers are expected to pick up to 36,000 units, a year-on-year decline of about 35% and the fourth week, the value is expected to be further adjusted to 69,000 units, a year-on-year decline narrowed to about 26%.
Since April, the epidemic prevention and control situation in the Yangtze River Delta, Northeast China and other places, which is an important town in the automobile industry, has been grim, and the national automobile production has been seriously affected.
Shanghai is home to a number of auto parts giants and some of their factories, and nine of the world's top 10 auto parts groups have their Chinese headquarters in Shanghai, namely Bosch, ZF, Magna, Hyundai Mobis, Aisin, Continental, Valeo, Lear and Faurecia. Affected by the shortage of parts supply, vehicle production bases in central And southern China have also been shut down.
In addition to production, the marketing rhythm of car companies has also been disrupted by the epidemic. For car companies, March-April of the past year is the golden period for the listing of new cars, and the listing of new products has a role in driving sales. The Association said that due to the postponement of the most important auto show of the year (Beijing Auto Show), the pace of new product listings of car companies is facing a complete adjustment.
At the same time, the Association said that the income and consumer confidence of residents in the areas under the control of the epidemic have also been affected to a certain extent, which has further restricted the recovery of the automobile market. In March, sales of A-class traditional fuel vehicles fell by 29% year-on-year, much higher than the overall decline in cars in the month (10.5%), and the sharp year-on-year decline in sales of A-class fuel vehicles under the epidemic means that consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars has declined.
Sun Shaojun, founder of the automobile sales service platform "Car Fans", told the first financial reporter that during the epidemic period, not only the hard-hit areas of the epidemic, but also the overall number of dealers across the country has seen a sharp decline.
Although Shanghai and Jilin and other places are gradually promoting the resumption of work and production, and related logistics and transportation are gradually recovering, the industry generally believes that it will take a long time for the automotive industry chain to recover to the pre-epidemic level.
Looking back, the Wuhan epidemic in early 2020 also caused a greater impact on automobile retail sales for a long time, before sales resumed positive growth, domestic automobile sales fell for four consecutive months year-on-year, and the first three months fell sharply, with a decline of 21.5%, 78.5%, 40.4% and 5.6% respectively. In May 2020, vehicle sales increased positively year-on-year, up 1.8% to 1.61 million units. This is also the first time since June 2018 that the year-on-year growth rate of automobile sales has turned positive (except for the positive sales data due to the "National V" dump factor in June 2019).
Sun Shaojun pointed out that there are many differences in the impact of the Wuhan epidemic and the current round of epidemic on the car market in early 2020, the Wuhan epidemic is more like a "heavy hammer", the short-term closure of the whole country caused a sharp decline in automobile sales, but at that time, domestic consumption power still existed, and both supply and demand sides remained in a relatively strong state, so after the epidemic, automobile sales soon showed a strong rebound momentum. But this round of the epidemic is more like a "protracted war", on the demand side, the just-needed class at a price of 100,000 to 250,000 yuan is the main force to give up the purchase of cars, and consumption has shown a weak trend; on the production side, the impact of this round of the epidemic on the automobile supply chain is also wider, and then superimposed on the russian-Ukrainian conflict After the rise in raw material prices, showing a tight supply and demand situation, car sales in the post-epidemic era may be difficult to reverse like the Wuhan epidemic.
"The impact of this outbreak may be greater than most people think." Sun Shaojun said.
As of the close of trading on April 25, the Shanghai index lost 3,000 points, down 5.13% to 2928.51, and the auto sector index fell 7.32% to 866.06 points. At the individual stock level, Yaxing Bus, Jianghuai Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Haima Automobile fell to a halt, and the stock prices of CIMC Vehicles, Zhongtong Bus, Foton Automobile, Shuguang Shares, Lifan Technology, Beiqi Blue Valley, Changan Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, Ankai Bus and Jinlong Automobile all fell by more than 8%.
As of the close of trading on April 25, the auto parts sector index also fell 7.94% to 19851.45 points.