Everyone knows the news that BYD banned the sale of fuel vehicles, and many car companies have announced their timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles. But what makes people curious is that although new energy vehicles occupy the mainstream at present, whether from the perspective of data or public acceptance, new energy vehicles still have a long way to go from occupying the mainstream. If this is the case, why are major car companies anxious to withdraw from the fuel vehicle market?
In January 2022, Honda Motor China President Katsushi Inoue said that it aims to sell 800,000 pure electric vehicles by 2030, noting: "If you can't win the competition in China, which is promoting electrification, you will be eliminated by the world." We want to change all areas, and we will decide the winner in the next five years."
From this sentence, we have to see the beginning. It turns out that in the eyes of the big guys, even if fuel vehicles will occupy the majority of the market for a long time, if they do not lay out the new energy market now, it is equivalent to being backward, and they will be beaten or even eliminated.
On the surface, this seems to be just a normal market rule. From this point of view, BYD first proposed to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, not only to go with the flow, but also to earn enough eyeballs and win in marketing.
Looking at things from another perspective, from the macro perspective of national policies, a considerable number of countries have announced the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles, most of which are between 2030 and 2040. Combined with the timetable for banning the sale of fuel vehicles announced by car companies, it will be found that the two coincide. Obviously, from this point of view, the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles by car companies not only complies with market rules, but also is a policy trend.
But here we need to pay attention to one point - the focus of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles is to care about the word "ban". In this regard, we must combine the existing "new energy vehicle standards" to see. In the existing policies, the types of new energy vehicles mainly include pure electric vehicles, extended-range hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles, hydrogen engine vehicles, and other new energy vehicles.
Among them, whether it is an extended-range hybrid or a plug-in hybrid, it is inseparable from the support of the engine. In other words, although fuel vehicles are no longer sold, it does not mean that car companies will abandon the development and installation of engines, and even for a long time in the future, a variety of energy types will coexist in the market.
Therefore, it is not so much that it will be eliminated without exiting, but rather that "if you do not develop new energy, you will be eliminated." After understanding this logic, and then looking back at domestic independent brands and foreign brands, we may have new discoveries.
Assuming that our ultimate goal is pure electric models, there will be a long period of coexistence of multiple energy models, so where are the advantages of independent brands and foreign brands?
For independent brands, starting earlier has given The domestic vision, technology and experience in the field of new energy more advanced, reflected in the hybrid model, we can through this part of the advantages to close the gap in the field of engines, so that the gap between products is instantly close or even close and beyond.
For foreign brands, because their engine technology is good enough, they can focus more on the field of new energy, such as "all in" Volkswagen is the best example. It can be said that the coexistence of multiple energy models has made most of the independent brands and most foreign brands truly stand on the same running line.
To put it simply, until the New Fourth Transformation is finally reached, we cannot know who will win this battle. Throughout the development, the two have almost the same starting line, compared to the acceleration of the two sides. From this, it is not difficult for us to understand why car companies are so anxious to ban the sale of fuel models and lay out the new energy field in advance.
Maybe someone said, "Then tesla and Weilai and other brands that are mainly based on pure electricity now, won't they be numb?" "It should be noted that the fact that the pure electric model is the ultimate goal is itself a certain hypothetical, and no one can be sure whether the final answer to the question is pure electricity or hydrogen or otherwise before the end." At least for now, their starting line is not much different.
Returning to the essence, at least on the surface, the reason for the development of new energy vehicles is to achieve "carbon neutrality", that is, to protect the environment. But in fact, this is also the key to the overtaking of national strength.
Since the beginning of the first industrial revolution, the result of almost every major change has been the arrival of a "new type of energy" as a pause, and the countries that control this energy have naturally become the hegemons of the world. When the times develop to today, although mastering the "new energy" of the new era cannot set off an industrial revolution, let alone make China leap into a superpower, it does not prevent the country from achieving a big leap.
From the energy point of view, there are actually many oil reserves on the earth, but the amount of extraction has not kept up with the demand, and with the increase of the amount of extraction, the cost of extraction is also rising, the consequence is that the price of oil rises, and the supply exceeds demand. This is quite a disadvantage for China, which already produces less oil, which means that all products that need to use oil are somehow constrained by foreign oil supplies.
At this time, reducing the domestic demand for oil is undoubtedly a good way to throttle. At the same time, as a coal country, using electricity as an alternative is indeed a good choice. Although, the current power supply model may not be as environmentally friendly, and the power supply is relatively tight. But as mentioned earlier, there is still a long way to go before we can fully transition to the pure electric automobile market. During this period of time, it is very reasonable to seek a more environmentally friendly power generation model and a stronger power supply capacity.
It should be noted that China is not the only one with the same problem, in fact, most countries in the world are facing the same problem: power supply shortage, power supply model is not environmentally friendly, etc. Therefore, achieving the goal earlier will not only make China "long face", but also get rid of the constraints from energy supply, and even lead the world.
To put it bluntly, "ban on combustion" is more symbolic, according to the current development trend of China's automotive industry, we have seized some of the commanding heights of innovation that are closely related to the dominance of the automobile industry, including power batteries, intelligent driving technology, big data, 5G and so on. In the long run, it is only a matter of time before fuel vehicles withdraw from the market, and what we really need to face now is how to find better alternatives, better develop new energy and intelligence, and thus compete with multinational giants in the global market.
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