Introduction: The price increase of new energy vehicles in the first quarter is difficult to stop the heat, but the test of the epidemic has just arrived, and it will be a foregone conclusion.
(Text/Pan Yuchen Editor/Lou Bing) 2022 has already completed the first quarter. During the beginning of the year, new energy vehicles gradually passed the test of the decline of state subsidies, and the prices of raw materials such as lithium and nickel rose, and the overall price of new energy models of major brands generally increased in price, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. However, the heat of the new energy vehicle market in the same period is still unabated, which provides the greatest boost to the overall sales stability of china's automobile market.
According to the association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 455,000 units in March this year, an increase of 122.4% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, China's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.19 million units, an increase of 145.4% year-on-year.
Among them, sales of pure electric vehicles reached 371,000 units in March, an increase of 116.8% year-on-year, and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 84,000 units, an increase of 151.3% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative sales of pure electric vehicles reached 954,000 units, an increase of 133.3% year-on-year; the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 235,000 units, an increase of 211.2% year-on-year.
Specific to various market segments, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in March was 25.1%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the same period last year; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands was 41%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in luxury vehicles was 34%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands was only 3%.
The market position of major new energy vehicle companies has not changed significantly, and BYD, Tesla, and SAIC-GM-Wuling still occupy the top three car companies. Among them, BYD, which has completely stopped production and stopped selling fuel vehicles, ranked among the top five domestic car companies with sales of nearly 300,000 vehicles in the first quarter; Tesla and SAIC-GM-Wuling also competed with traditional fuel vehicle companies with more than 100,000 vehicles.
Pure electricity: Wuling expanded its advantages, and BYD came to the top
Pure electric vehicles account for more than 80% of the overall sales volume, and are still the main force in the overall growth of new energy vehicles.
In this market, independent brands occupy an absolute advantage, but the sales lead are mostly micro scooters. It is still Tesla that leads the mainstream passenger car market. However, BYD, which insists on "walking on two legs", has also begun to strengthen its penetration in the pure electricity market in the medium-sized and higher markets, and is chasing Tesla.
In March this year, the top three market segments did not move, but the ranking changed: due to the listing of new models, Wuling Hongguang MINI surpassed Tesla's two models to jump to the top of the list again, with monthly sales of 47,600 units, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative sales of Wuling Hongguang MINI reached 107,000 units, an increase of 10% over the same period last year, maintaining an absolute leading edge in the micro and small scooter market.
However, micro-small cars are still the most penetrating segment of new energy vehicles, in the first quarter of this year, small cars accounted for nearly half of the domestic pure electric vehicle market, and other brand competitors will not give up this cake because of Wuling's strength. In March this year, Chery QQ Ice Cream and Changan Benben E-Star, which were recently listed, were among the top five in terms of sales of pure electric vehicle models, and others such as Chery eQ and Zero Run T03 also performed well.
However, with the intensification of market competition, the share of some existing models that have achieved good results, such as Roewe Coleway, Reading Mango, Punk Toto, etc., has gradually shrunk.
In the mainstream family car market, Tesla Model Y has been listed for more than a year, basically replacing the Model 3 as the company's main sales force. In April, sales approached 40,000 units, an increase of nearly 300% year-on-year, and cumulative sales in the first quarter also exceeded 100,000 vehicles, an increase of more than 540% year-on-year. However, the Model 3, which seems to be in the late life of the product, also has monthly sales of 26,000 vehicles, which industry insiders believe may be related to Tesla's continuous official price increases in March, resulting in the release of consumers' early preventive orders.
In March, of Tesla's total sales in China, only 60 models from the Shanghai plant were exported. In the first quarter of this year, Tesla's cumulative sales in China were about 108,300 units, and the average monthly domestic sales of a single model was about 18,000 units, which was still in the top three in March in new energy vehicle sales.
At the same time, with the completion and operation of the German plant, part of the export tasks of the Shanghai plant will be transferred in the future. However, with the overall price of new energy vehicles rising, and the citywide lockdown caused by the epidemic in Shanghai, the Tesla factory has stopped production in late March, which is bound to have a significant impact on the company's production and sales in the second quarter.
Behind Tesla, with the deepening of the layout of the ocean network, BYD is catching up in the pure electricity market. Dolphin, Han EV, Yuan PLUS and other models have all sold more than 10,000 per month and ranked in the top ten in terms of sales of pure electric models. Qin PLUS EV has exceeded 8,000 vehicles. With the deepening of the layout of the e-platform and the listing of new marine series flagships such as seals, BYD's competitiveness in the pure electric market is expected to go to a higher level.
In addition, the monthly sales of most pure electric models do not exceed 10,000 units. It is worth noting that as a force that cannot be ignored in the rise of new energy vehicles, the main sales models of the new forces of head car manufacturing have been able to rank among the second echelon of the pure electricity market, such as Xiaopeng P7, Nezha V, Zero Run T03, Weilai ES6, etc., with monthly sales of more than 5,000 vehicles.
Among the new energy brands of traditional independent car companies, only a few models such as GAC Aean Y and Euler Good Cat can compete with them. Some high-end electric brands founded by traditional car companies, such as Geely Extreme Kr, Changan Avita, Dongfeng Lantu, SAIC Zhiji, BAIC Jihu, etc., may still be on the slope for the time being, or new cars have not been listed and delivered, and they are still in the position of catching up compared with new forces.
The DM-i of the plug-in and mixed is lonely and defeated, and the ideal ONE of the extended range is stable and exceeds 10,000
Compared with pure electric models, the number of plug-in hybrid models currently on sale is not only small, but the overall sales volume is far less than the former. If BYD still needs to challenge Tesla's strong enemy in the pure electric market, then in the plug-and-mix market, no one can take away BYD's throne.
In March this year, with the penetration of DM-i super hybrid models, BYD models further consolidated their position in the plug-and-mix market. Song DM won the market segment with 22,400 units per month, and Qin PLUS DM-i ranked second with 14,300 units. Tang DM ranked fourth, although it failed to sell more than 10,000 yuan per month, but it also increased by more than 560% over the same period last year, gaining a place in the mid-size SUV market.
In bydy's plug-and-mix series, only medium and large sedan Han DM sales are low, but monthly sales are also more than 2100 units, ranking seventh in the market segment. What's more, with the official launch of the Han DM-i model in April, coupled with the destroyer 05 that has just opened for delivery, BYD has not only consolidated its position in the mid-size sedan market, but is expected to pose a threat to mainstream joint venture fuel vehicles and luxury cars.
In the plug-and-mix market, the ideal ONE is the only existence that can compete with BYD's car series. In March, ideal ONE sales exceeded 10,000 units again, an increase of 1.25% year-on-year, ranking third in the market segment. At the same time, the ideal ONE is not only the highest-selling model among the new car-making forces, but also the company with the least loss and the most promising profit in this group.
In addition to BYD and Ideal, there is only one plug-in model with a monthly sales of more than 3,000 units, that is, the ATIO Q&I M5 with the endorsement of Huawei's vehicle networking system. Of course, the delivery volume of the M5 in the current month is mainly due to the gradual release of the previous order, as a model priced slightly lower than Tang and ideal ONE, whether its subsequent stability can become the mainstream of the market depends more on the product strength in addition to the Huawei label.
However, it is worth noting that with the implementation of the dual credit policy and the establishment of the mainland's "double carbon" goal, more and more traditional car companies have begun to replace existing fuel vehicles by launching new hybrid models. Such as Changan UNI-K iDD, Weipai Mocha PHEV, Lynk & Co 09 PHEV, Lantu FREE, etc., although the monthly sales have just exceeded 1,000 units, but considering that the new car is not on the market for a long time, the substitution effect on fuel vehicles is still being continuously reflected.
In terms of joint venture car companies, including mainstream brands such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Toyota, and Honda, they have launched plug-in hybrid versions for main fuel models for users in limited license cities. However, with the exception of the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, which sells more than 2,000 units per month, sales of the remaining models are generally low. The sales volume of German plugs and mixes is significantly higher than that of Japanese plugs and mixes.
Observe: the epidemic will become the biggest test
Although the heat of production and sales has not decreased, there is no doubt that price increases are the biggest topic of new energy vehicles in the first quarter of this year. In the view of Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, the price increase in the supply chain does have an impact on the industry, but the price increase of new energy vehicles is also relatively rational. Especially since the decline of state subsidies in January this year, most enterprises have strived to resolve the impact of subsidies through internal balancing operations and upfront cost reductions.
However, the sudden increase in the price of power batteries still makes the cost pressure of car companies, especially the pressure of micro and small cars, increase sharply, and the only thing that can alleviate the cost pressure in the environment is to respond to the price increase.
At present, the vast majority of new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases, and some car companies such as Chery have already had two rounds of price increases. Fortunately, the impact of new energy vehicle sales is not obvious for the time being. Cui Dongshu believes that new energy vehicles use order sales, and various car companies have more orders before the price increase, and the sales volume in March and April is basically the digestion of the previous orders. In addition, oil prices rose continuously in the first quarter of this year, and No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline entered the 10 yuan era, which expanded the advantages of new energy vehicles in disguise.
However, since the beginning of this year, there have been sporadic outbreaks in many parts of the country. Since March, the scale of the epidemic in shanghai and Jilin has expanded, rapidly spreading to 28 provinces and cities in China. Shanghai, Changchun, Jilin and other places are the mainland automobile industry, the local epidemic prevention and control, resulting in many car companies and parts enterprises production and transportation impact. At present, many car companies such as North and South Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, SAIC Passenger Cars, tesla and so on have temporarily suspended work due to the epidemic, which has directly affected the production and sales of automobiles, including new energy vehicles. Even plants such as Weilai, which are not at the epicenter of the epidemic, have been forced to stop production due to supply chain ruptures.
In this regard, including Xiaopeng Automobile He Xiaopeng, Huawei Yu Chengdong and others have said in the circle of friends that if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may stop work and production after May, and even all technology industries involved in Shanghai's supply chain will be significantly affected.
In addition, Cui Dongshu also believes that on the sales side, the impact of the epidemic on different car buyers is also different. Most of them belong to the middle class and have more assets, and the risk aversion mentality under the epidemic will release the demand for the second car and drive the strong growth of high-end B-class electric vehicles; the economic conditions of the car-free family are poor, the loss of working income in the epidemic is also large, and the original normal consumption upgrade of the car purchase ability is temporarily blocked, which will lead to a decline in the purchase demand for traditional entry-level models.
At present, although Jilin and other places have achieved zero social clearance, the epidemic prevention war in Shanghai is still continuing. How much damage this round of the epidemic will cause to the production and sales of the automobile industry and new energy vehicles cannot be counted at present.
Attached: 2022 new energy vehicle sales list
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