"Affected by the epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, 8 suppliers stopped work and operation, and tank 300 suspended production from April 14."
"The Model 3 is now in the fourth quarter for bookings and pick-ups." Tesla's sales from time to time in the circle of friends hinted: Tesla has stopped production, to seize the time to order, early to take early.
Tank 300 and Model 3 are both popular models, in short supply in the market, their encounter shows that the domestic automotive industry has entered a difficult period, mainly due to the spread of the epidemic everywhere, resulting in the supply chain can not operate normally.
At this time, it is the outbreak of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, and the entire industry is in a critical period of "lane change overtaking".
DEARAUTO
Retail sales fell 32% in early April for the full year
or 20% lost due to the pandemic
The new crown epidemic began to spread in March this year, intensified in April, and then affected the production and sales of automobiles across the country, which was soon reflected in the production and sales data, and the decline was shocking.
According to the monitoring data released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles on April 13, from April 1 to 10 this year, the retail sales of new passenger cars were 246,000 units, down 32% year-on-year and 39% from the same period last month; the wholesale number of passenger cars was 242,000 units, down 39% year-on-year, down 72% from the previous week, and down 45% from the same period last month.
Generally speaking, the listing of new cars in March and April is still an important means to promote sales, because it coincides with the most important festival of the automotive industry in the year - the Beijing Auto Show (or Shanghai Auto Show), manufacturers use this platform to promote the listing of various new cars, thereby driving the recovery of the entire industry, but this year's Beijing Auto Show has announced an extension, the rhythm of the main engine factory is facing a complete adjustment, and it is not conducive to the development effect of the local auto show, bringing certain losses to the promotion link in the marketing communication of dealers in April, and the sales environment of conventional fuel vehicles is blocked.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, estimated that the epidemic may cause about 20% of the loss of China's automobile production.
DEARAUTO
The major automobile production and sales town has fallen into a state of suspension
Judging from the current situation, the impact of this wave of the epidemic on the automotive industry may be no less than that in early 2020. According to a new report released by Nomura Securities, about 373 million people in 45 cities in China are currently under lockdown or semi-lockdown, accounting for 40% of gross domestic product (GDP).
What is even more frightening is that this wave of epidemics has hit the important cities of automobile production and sales - Jilin (Changchun), Shanghai and Guangdong, which are the top three major automobile production towns in China, accounting for 1/3 of the country's automobile production.
Changchun and Shanghai are also home to the headquarters of FAW and SAIC, china's two largest automobile groups, respectively, shanghai is the economic center of the country, and the surrounding area is full of auto parts industries, and the impact will also radiate to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and even the entire Yangtze River Delta region.
Among them, Changchun City, Jilin Province, was the hardest hit area in March. On March 13, FAW Group decided to arrange for all five major vehicle plants in Changchun to stop production, and initially planned to stop production until the 16th of that month. The plan did not change quickly, until April 11, FAW officially resumed work and production, before that, the first batch of 47 parts companies are resuming work in an orderly manner.
In April, the hardest-hit areas were transferred to Shanghai. From March 28, the Tesla factory in the Shanghai Lingang Free Trade Zone has stopped production due to the epidemic. It was planned to stop work for 4 days, but the plan to resume production was cancelled.
If it continues to shut down until May 15, this means that Tesla's Shanghai factory will continue for another month after it has stopped operating for more than half a month.
The Shanghai plant produced more than 500,000 units last year, and according to the value of 300,000 yuan per car, how much loss will be caused by the suspension of production?
Of course, Shanghai is far more than Tesla, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, SAIC Passenger Car and many other OEMs are also in Shanghai, with an annual production capacity of millions of vehicles.
In terms of automobile production, Guangzhou is the first important town, and the area is home to GUANGQI Honda, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan, GAC Trumpchi, GAC Eian and other OEMs. Fortunately, the epidemic in Guangzhou in April seems to be relatively controllable, and the impact on the automotive industry will not be the same as that of Changchun and Shanghai.
DEARAUTO
Parts factories do not dynamically resume production,
All OEMs face production stoppage in May?
The epidemic not only hit the main engine factory, but also a large number of supporting factories, such as the factories of Many International Auto Supplier Giants such as Bosch and ZF in Shanghai, as well as many industrial chain supporting enterprises covering the fields of engines, power batteries, chips, body interiors and exteriors.
A car, with tens of thousands of parts, the absence of any one part, will cause the vehicle to fail to deliver. The previous chip crisis does not seem to ease in 2022.
More parts "cut off" on the shock wave of the vehicle has emerged, in February this year, Great Wall Motors sales declined, it is precisely because Bosch Suzhou is under pressure from the epidemic, the supply chain has limited the output of the vehicle. Weilai Automobile closed its Hefei plant for five days in April, also due to the limitation of parts and components in various places due to the epidemic.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, warned on the evening of April 14: "If Shanghai and the surrounding supply chain companies cannot find a way to dynamically resume work and production, all Chinese automakers may have to stop work and production in May." ”
On the morning of April 15, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business and CEO of Smart Car BU, expressed similar concerns – if Shanghai cannot resume work and production, all technology/industrial industries involved in Shanghai's supply chain will be completely shut down after May, especially the automotive industry. He said that since mid-April, some companies have begun to cut off supply chains due to closures such as Shanghai. If this continues, the economic loss/cost of the industry will be significant.
DEARAUTO
All departments work together to rescue
Under normal circumstances, large parts and accessories will choose to be produced nearby, while some small and fine core parts will be centrally purchased, that is, most of the parts are more controllable.
The automotive industry has launched an active self-help, taking Bosch, the leader of domestic auto parts, as an example, Bosch's auto parts factories in Shanghai and Taicang are still "closed-loop production".
As a pillar industry of the national economy, the competent authorities will obviously not let this situation in the automotive industry continue.
He Xiaopeng also said, "The good news is that some ministries and authorities are doing their best to coordinate, and expect more governments and competent departments to support and work together." ”
Since April 15, some vehicles in Shanghai have begun to be active on the streets; the General Office of the Jiangsu Provincial Government has issued a latest notice requiring appropriate adjustments to the currently closed highway intersections before 24:00 on April 13, and restoring 40% of them, that is, 52 intersections.
This undoubtedly adds a glimmer of hope to the early resumption of parts supply by automakers in the Yangtze River Delta region.
If the above measures are on the production side, the executive meeting of the State Council on April 13 made the latest deployment for the demand side - all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and the gradual increase in the number of automobiles has been implemented.
At present, there are seven major cities in the country (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shijiazhuang) and Hainan Province to restrict the purchase of cars, mainly concentrated in the field of fuel vehicles.
Prior to this, from March to May 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions issued policies to support the development of new energy vehicles three times, including improving subsidy policies, carrying out activities for cars going to the countryside, and reducing the tax exemption threshold for new energy vehicles. From June 2021, the relaxation of restrictions on the off-site trading of used cars has gradually landed in major cities across the country, and the circulation of used cars across provinces is more convenient.
Text | DA Bin
(This article is the author's personal opinion only and does not represent the position of DearAuto.) )
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Mr. Li Guoyong of Guangdong Green Law Firm