Reporter 丨 Xiaomin Trainee 丨 Li Du
Produced by 丨aotou finance (theSankei)
No. 95 gasoline has opened the "9 yuan era", and the price per liter of No. 92 is also approaching 9 yuan. I thought that the rise in oil prices would bring huge sales space to new energy vehicles, but new energy vehicles did not "rest".
On April 10, NIO (09866. HK) announced that due to the continuous sharp rise in global raw material prices this year, from May 10, the prices of its products will be appropriately adjusted, and the starting price of ES8, ES6 and EC6 versions will be raised by 10,000 yuan.
Aotou Financial Statistics found that there are currently Great Wall Euler, BYD (002594. SZ), Xiaopeng Automobile (09868. HK), Changan New Energy and more than 20 car companies announced price increases.
However, at present, the sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland are still optimistic, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles nationwide in March were 445,000 units, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month.
Although sales are good, under various pressures, the sales of new energy vehicles are hindered.
Some insiders told Aotou Finance that according to the current situation, it is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 4 million in 2022.
Tesla's price increased three times in 8 days
"A car can't produce a single part." Earlier, Li Bin, founder and CEO of Weilai, explained, "Due to the epidemic, some of our parts were cut off in mid-March, relying on some parts inventory to barely support until last week." Affected by the recent epidemic in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places, many partners can not supply goods, can only suspend production. This situation is not ours alone, many manufacturers have suspended production. ”
In fact, before that, a number of new energy vehicle companies set off a wave of price increases.
On the evening of April 8, Lynk & Co issued an explanation on the price adjustment of Lynk & Co's new energy products: Due to the continuous rise in the price of upstream raw materials and other comprehensive factors, Lynk & Co will raise the official guidance price of its new energy (PHEV plug-in hybrid) products, ranging from 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan. The price adjustment involves the entire range of new energy products of Lynk & Co (01PHEV, 05PHEV, 06PHEV, 09PHEV).
On April 7, Tesla's official website in the United States showed that the price of some Model 3 models was raised by at least $1,000.
In China, tesla prices have increased three times in a row. From March 10 to March 17, in just 8 days, Tesla raised the price of its products three times, with a price increase of 15,060 yuan to 30,000 yuan. Among them, the domestic ModelY high-performance version of the model rose by 30,000 yuan.
On the evening of April 6, Jihu Automobile also issued an announcement that it decided to make certain price adjustments for all models of the Jihu brand from May 1, 2022, and the specific adjustment plan will be announced before April 30, 2022.
On the same day, Chery New Energy also announced a price increase, which will raise the price of some models by 2900 yuan to 5000 yuan.
Euler two models "withdraw"
Aotou Finance statistics found that there are currently Great Wall Euler, SAIC-GM-Wuling (00305. HK), BYD, Xiaopeng Automobile, Nezha Automobile, Geely Geometry, Zero Run Automobile, Dongfeng Lantu (00489. HK), Changan New Energy and more than 20 car company officials announced price increases.
The most "tragic" thing is that in February, Euler Motors, a new energy vehicle brand under Great Wall Motors, suddenly announced that it would stop accepting orders for the two main sales models of the Euler Black Cat and the Euler White Cat, and also removed all the promotional materials, so that the two cars would "disappear" in the product line of Euler.
Great Wall Euler said that a series of reasons such as the decline in new energy subsidies, the shortage of chips and the increase in raw material prices have led to the loss of black cat bicycles as high as 10,000 yuan.
Dong Yudong, CEO of Great Wall Euler, pointed out: "Taking black cat as an example, after the sharp rise in raw materials in 2022, the loss of black cat alone exceeded 10,000 yuan. "The production cost of the three-electric system of Euler black and white cats accounts for about 55%-60% of the cost of the vehicle, and these two explosive mini cars have stopped receiving orders."
BYD, which has just announced the suspension of the sale of fuel vehicles, has recently said that it will have a new round of price increases. Li Yunfei, deputy general manager of BYD Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., confirmed that "this is false news."
In 2022, BYD has adjusted prices twice, and on February 1, the company raised the range of 1,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices and the decline of new energy car purchase subsidies; on March 16, the increase range was 3,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan, due to the continuous sharp rise in raw material prices.
New energy vehicle sales are expected to be lowered
Despite the general increase in prices, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has not decreased.
On April 11, according to the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, the retail sales of new energy vehicles nationwide in March 2022 were 445,000 units, an increase of 137.6% year-on-year and 63.1% month-on-month.
The cost pressure of new energy vehicle companies mainly comes from the two aspects of power batteries and chips, the former is restricted by lithium resources and the price rises, and the latter, especially the basic chip, has a supply chain obstruction. In terms of power batteries, the price of lithium carbonate per ton has risen from 60,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and the theoretical cost of each car with 50kwh of electricity will increase by 13,000 yuan (lithium iron battery) / 15,000 yuan (ternary battery). The bulk purchase of basic chips has also affected the gross profit margin of car companies such as Weilai.
Xiaopeng, Ideal, Nezha and other new car-making forces sold more than 30,000 vehicles in the first quarter.
Among them, in the first three months of 2022, Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 34,561 vehicles, an increase of 159% year-on-year; Ideal Automobile delivered 31,716 new vehicles in the same period, an increase of 152%; Nezha Automobile's cumulative delivery volume in the first quarter was 30,200 units, an increase of 305% year-on-year.
ACCORDING TOD's production and sales report, sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter were 286,000 units, a sharp increase of 423% year-on-year and 7.6% month-on-month.
Tesla also introduced that the global delivery volume reached 310,000 units in the first three months, an increase of 67.7% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%.
There is already a serious overcapacity
For the entire new energy automobile industry, price increases are only the current dilemma, but in the longer term, overcapacity has become a more problem to face.
According to data from the International Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2020, China's automobile factories (light vehicles) have a production capacity of 48.0493 million units, with a capacity utilization rate of 52%, far lower than the capacity utilization rate of South Korea's 75%, the United States' 73%, Japan's 68%, and Europe's 62%, and the overcapacity is relatively serious.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, among the 98 automobile manufacturers in 2021, there are more than 50 enterprises that produce less than 1,000 vehicles per month, of which nearly 20 are in a state of suspension and produce 0 vehicles per month.
For the new energy vehicle industry, the situation is even worse. On April 1, at Weichai Power's 2021 annual performance conference, Tan Xuguang, chairman of Weichai Group, said that there will be a catastrophic overcapacity of new energy vehicles. "In recent years, the new energy industry has been more lively, and there has been a rush of competition. There are many companies that dop private activities and inflate wealth through the capital market, resulting in the capital market's disorderly capital expansion of new energy. ”
According to the data, at the end of 2020, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in the mainland has reached 26.69 million units, but the market sales volume is only 1.367 million units.
Recently, the Association pointed out that there are still 10.46 million vehicles under construction and production capacity of enterprises with production qualifications, most of which are new energy vehicle projects.
CCID Research Institute expects that by 2025, the total production capacity of new energy vehicles in the mainland is expected to reach 36.61 million, the market size is about 5.3 million, and the capacity utilization rate is less than 15%.
Some insiders said that the production capacity of new energy vehicles is idle a lot now, and it is hoped that more "consolidation" will be used to digest production capacity through mergers and acquisitions, and it is necessary to carry out national overall planning, rather than surging up and blooming everywhere.