Both Li Bin and Weilai lived a life of shortage of supplies.
On April 9, NIO announced on its APP that since March, due to the epidemic, the company's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production, affected by this, WEILAI vehicle production has been suspended.
Under this announcement, a user left a message, "It's not easy bin brother, the group saw you exchange green onions for people's salt, the difficulty of the epidemic can be imagined, take care of yourself." ”
According to titanium media estimates, JAC Wei's annual production capacity is about 250,000 units, and if it is suspended for one day, it will lose up to 685 vehicles that may have previously rolled off the production line.
At the same time as NIO's production capacity rises, the impact of the suspended factories on NIO is also greater. In March last year, due to the lack of cores, JAC Weilai stopped production for 5 days and produced 600 fewer vehicles.
Other new energy vehicle companies are not having a good time. Li Bin also pointed out at the announcement, "This situation is not ours, many manufacturers have suspended production." ”
Since the beginning of this year, the new energy vehicle country has made up for the decline, in addition, affected by domestic and foreign factors, the price of raw materials in the supply chain has soared, and car companies have also increased prices accordingly. Under the influence of various "bearish" factors, what will happen to the sales of new energy vehicles this year?
Production suspensions and price increases
There is more than one new energy vehicle company that has stopped production.
According to the "Future Automobile Daily", as early as March 29, the Nio factory had decided to temporarily suspend work for 5 working days. According to foreign media reports, Tesla's Shanghai factory also entered a shutdown on this day. Tesla was originally scheduled to stop production for 4 days, but it has not yet resumed work.
SAIC Volkswagen's new energy vehicle plant in Jiading, Shanghai, began production on April 1. Meanwhile, Volkswagen's Zwickau plant, which produces electric vehicles, was shut down for eight days in mid-March.
On April 2, Tesla CEO Musk said it was an unusually difficult quarter due to supply chain disruptions and the impact of the epidemic.
Relevant people familiar with the matter told Future Auto Daily that Weilai expects to temporarily stop production for a few days, so that suppliers have a buffer time, and the supply chain can return to normal in April. But alas, it backfired.
In the face of increasing tension in the supply chain, many car companies have been forced to choose to increase prices, postpone deliveries and stop taking orders.
Previously, there were also rumors that the recent hotly discussed supply software of the big capital platform - Chao DuoDuo APP, some people suspect that the capital behind it may be a well-known car company, and everyone speculates that they may not only be the popularity of the Tide DuoDUO APP, but also the funds that should be quickly returned.
Those who are widely sought after by first- and second-line youth AJ, green water ghosts and other original thousands of imported products, in the Tide Duoduo APP was robbed by more than 5 million young people at a low price of less than 200, and its quality even international appraisers loved it, this scene was jokingly called "leeks rebelling against the sickle" by netizens. It is difficult not to believe that there is no big capital behind the operation to enhance their leading position in some fields.
As early as February 15, Great Wall Motor's Euler brand black cat and white cat models no longer accept new car orders, the duration is unknown. Euler's announcement said that the main reason was that "after the rise in raw material prices in 2022, the loss of black cats alone exceeded 10,000 yuan".
On March 10, Volkswagen's plug-in models stopped receiving orders, and the delivery date was also postponed, and the delivery cycle of some models was even as long as 8-10 months.
At the same time, new energy vehicle companies have opened a wave of price increases.
In March, Tesla raised prices three times in a week, with the Model Y model having raised its price by 30,000 yuan. Xiaopeng's price increased by 10,100 yuan to 20,000 yuan from March 21. Since April, the retail price of the ideal ONE has also been raised by 11,800 yuan.
New energy brands such as WM, Nezha, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Lantu, GAC E-An, Chery New Energy, and Euler have also seen price increases of different magnitudes.
At the 2021 performance meeting of Weilai on March 25, Li Bin said that Weilai Automobile will not increase its price at this stage. But in the past half a month alone, Weilai has been unable to withstand the cost pressure. On April 10, NIO announced that from May 10, the starting price of three models will be raised by 10,000 yuan.
Li Bin said in the Weilai App, "Raw materials, especially battery raw materials, have risen too much this year, and there is no downward trend in the near future, I originally wanted to carry it, the epidemic situation is even more unbearable, the price increase is also forced, please understand." ”
The pressure of NIO's delivery is not small. Since the beginning of this year, Weilai's single-month delivery volume has not exceeded 10,000 vehicles for three consecutive months, lagging behind ideals, Xiaopeng and Nezha, ranking only fourth among the new forces, and even in the data in March, the zero-run delivery volume exceeded 10,000 for the first time, and Weilai could only bend to the fifth place in the ranking.
Analysts believe that for new energy vehicles that have just started, the price increase at this stage is a "suicide behavior" and will inevitably affect sales.
What is certain is that under the storm of temporary suspension of production, Weilai's market share is afraid to continue to decline.
Stop on new damage
Domestic auto shows are generally held in April and October, and car companies almost all release new cars around this marketing node.
However, a new car may not be waiting for this April.
On April 6, the Beijing International Automobile Exhibition announced that the 17th Beijing International Automobile Exhibition, which was scheduled to be held from April 21 to 30, will be postponed. Ideal and Xiaopeng announced that the new car plan was shelved that night.
Ideal said that due to the impact of force majeure in the environment, the ideal L9 conference originally scheduled for April 16 will be postponed, and the specific time is to be determined. Xiaopeng released a poster to promote the G9, "Looking forward to 9, we will see you in June", indicating that the Xiaopeng G9, which was originally scheduled to be officially unveiled at the 2022 Beijing Auto Show, was postponed.
Nio's ES7, originally scheduled for mid-April, was postponed until the end of May. On March 30, the day Weilai President Qin Lihong revealed the news, he also complained that the Weilai Shanghai delivery center had been out of fire for several days and would continue until after the Qingming Dynasty.
Niuchuang Automobile, a new energy vehicle project of Xiaoniu Electric, was originally scheduled to hold the first car self-touring NV listing conference on March 31, but it was also postponed, and it is uncertain when it will be extended.
At present, it is a critical period for the delivery of the first car of Zhiji Automobile, a joint venture between SAIC Motor and Alibaba. However, on March 29, the launch of Zhiji Automobile's first car did not go as scheduled, and co-CEO Liu Tao could only communicate with the media through video.
Zhiji's first mass-produced car, the L7, was originally scheduled to provide real car test drives in March and start new car deliveries in April, Liu Tao said, "Due to the impact of the epidemic on the production and logistics of vehicles, the test drive of the L7 is expected to be delayed by two weeks to reach stores across the country, and the test drive time needs to be until mid-April", and the delivery time of the new car is still uncertain.
"A large number of enterprises in Shanghai, including Zhiji, have indeed been affected by cooperation in control. Our work park is still closed to this day. Liu Tao said that in order not to delay the progress, Zhiji's autonomous driving team was scattered in 4 different hotels in Shanghai due to epidemic control, and the equipment was also moved, and the vehicles were continuously investigated and tested in the basement of the hotel.
This also happens in traditional car companies. SAIC motor has carried out closed work during the epidemic, but the park still needs to control the number of people, and the teams have to be scattered in different places. According to the Daily Economic News, SAIC's crash test and R&D test have been challenged, and it is expected that the pace of research and development will be delayed by 1 month.
Delaying the launch of the new is a fatal injury to car companies.
According to radar finance analysis, Weilai's sluggish sales in the past 6 months are mainly related to the slow pace of new product launches. Nio has not been able to release new models in the past year, and the old models have not been updated, and in the case that major car companies are all making efforts to pure electric SUV models, NIO's competitiveness is threatened.
Fragile supply chains
WEILAI temporarily suspended production, and the suspension of suppliers is a direct trigger.
Bosch is the main supplier of NIO electronic systems, taking the ES6 as an example, millimeter wave radar, iBooster, body electronic stability system (ESP), electric assist braking system and other electronic systems, and even wipers, are all manufactured by Bosch.
In February this year, an employee of Bosch's Suzhou plant was diagnosed with asymptomatic infection, and then Bosch told foreign media that it expected Bosch's manufacturing and post-production operations in Suzhou to be affected in the short term.
Bosch is also the exclusive supplier of Great Wall ESP, which geely uses bosch ESP for more than 90%. Affected by this, Great Wall Motor's February sales fell by 20.5% year-on-year, while Geely Automobile's slight increase was 1.63% year-on-year and 46.39% month-on-month.
In addition, NIO battery supplier NINGDE Times said on April 10 that due to the emergence of individual epidemics in Ningde, NINGDE Times temporarily upgraded its epidemic prevention and control measures, but the company did not stop production.
Due to the needs of epidemic prevention and control, some local highway toll stations have been temporarily closed, and cargo and truck drivers are trapped on high-speed highways. The supplier's goods were blocked from being transported to the downstream industry, and the cost of transportation increased, so the production plan had to be adjusted.
Guanghua-KY, a vehicle interior parts factory, previously announced that its subsidiary Xiangyang Guangjia had stopped production in response to the tightening of epidemic control and logistics blockades in Shanghai, Wuxi and Kunshan, and flexibly adjusted its production plan. At present, the raw material inventory has been prepared to meet the production needs of customers after the resumption of work, and at the same time, with the production plan, manpower mobile rest is required to reduce costs.
In fact, for some car companies, the epidemic may be only the last straw.
As early as February, when the black cat and white cat of the Euler brand stopped taking orders, the manufacturer pointed out that the new energy industry was in an environment of lack of core and little electricity.
Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the demand for chips in new energy vehicles is almost double. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of chips for traditional fuel vehicles will reach 934 in 2022, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 1459.
According to foreign media reports, affected by the Russian-Ukrainian War, the Earthquake in Japan and the new crown epidemic, the global chip delivery cycle increased to 26.6 weeks in March, a record high. Analysts pointed out that the current chip shortage may have a long-term impact on the chip supply chain throughout the year.
Starting in the second half of 2020, the core raw material of the battery was gradually replaced by ternary lithium to lithium carbonate, and under the surging market demand, the price of lithium carbonate soared from about 50,000 yuan per ton at that time to about 500,000 yuan per ton. Under the Russian-Ukrainian war, the price of nickel, the raw material of ternary lithium, fluctuated, and the market share of lithium carbonate was more stable.
On March 26, at the high-level forum of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, Li wanted to criticize the price increase of lithium carbonate, "the cost of lithium carbonate may be 30,000-50,000 yuan, it should not be so expensive, this is a huge profit."
Li Bin also made the same voice, "We have done in-depth research on the upstream links, and believe that the current speculative factors of lithium carbonate price increases are more, and there is not such a big gap between supply and demand." ”
However, according to the 21st Century Economic Herald, Li xiang is suspected of having not done his homework well, and the cost price of 30,000-50,000 yuan is only applicable to domestic salt lake production enterprises, but the domestic production capacity is relatively limited, and the current price is mainly driven by the shortage of production capacity.
In March this year, in the face of a number of new energy vehicle companies rising prices, Li Bin insisted on sharing costs by scale effect, but half a month later, he changed.
The new car-making forces deliver more than 10,000 vehicles a month, which is not a small gap compared with BYD's 100,000 monthly sales. The supply chain is tight, and the production of large customers is generally guaranteed first. The temporary suspension of Weilai may be the active choice of suppliers.
The new car-making forces are once again facing a big test.