Written by / Zhang Linyu
Editor/ Zhang Nan
Design / Zhao Haoran
In the next 8 years, if the plans of various car companies are realized as scheduled, Tesla will far surpass Toyota to become the world's leader, because its sales target for 2030 is 20 million vehicles, which is twice toyota's sales in 2021.
In fact, Tesla has become the boss of the pure electricity segment in 2021, and even in the mixed segment of plug-in hybrid and pure electricity, Tesla still ranks first. According to swedish EV-Volumes data company survey data, in 2021, Tesla ranked first in the pure electric market with 936,100 vehicles sold, the second place was SAIC-GM-Wuling, with 609,700 vehicles, the third was Volkswagen Group, with a total sales of 451,100 pure electric models, and the fourth and fifth places were BYD and Hyundai.
Before the arrival of 2030, Apple seems to be Tesla's most comparable opponent, but this conclusion will not be clear until after 2025.
Automotive Business Review takes stock of the 2025-2030 strategic targets of 10 automakers, with the aim of presenting the determination of each company to transform to electrification, thus initially outlining the automotive industry pattern in 2030.
Europe is the most urgent region for this change, and the reason behind it is the government's fire ban timetable and car emissions policies. Volkswagen Group, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis and renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliances have all given a share of no less than 50% of pure electric models in the 2030 target, and some brands have promised 100% pure electricity.
With biden taking office in the United States in 2021, the United States has vigorously supported the new energy industry, and the transformation of GM and Ford to pure electricity is not small, but compared with Europe, it is slightly weaker.
The most conservative at the moment are Japan's Toyota and Honda, which are still passive about the pure electric route, but they have reacted relatively positively in the US and European markets respectively.
The following is a list of new energy vehicle targets for each company from 2025 to 2030, in order of global sales in 2021.
Toyota
Toyota was one of the first car companies to launch new energy models. In 1997, the hybrid model Prius was released in Japan and launched in the United States in 2000, which was a great success, but toyota has always been conservative in its pure circuit line.
In 2017, Toyota promised to become carbon neutral by 2050, mentioning that the path to realization is not just pure electricity. At that time, the external spokesperson officially announced that by 2025, there will be 70 Toyota new energy models on the market worldwide, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid, oil-electric hybrid and hydrogen energy models, of which the number of pure electric models is 15, accounting for less than half.
Four years later, in December 2021, Akio Toyoda announced that the target for 2030 is 30 pure electric models, doubling compared with 2025, and finally the goal of 2030 is 3.5 million pure electric sales, which is not a large proportion for Toyota's entire market. At the same time, Toyota invested $70 billion, half of which is spent on the production line of all-electric models.
At this conference at the end of 2021, Akio Toyoda still insists that he will not put the new energy strategy on a single pure circuit line, and they will continue to wait and see the market trend, retain other technical routes, and provide consumers with a variety of choices.
The first model based on the e-TNGA platform, the bZ4X, has landed on FAW Toyota and is expected to be available by July 2022.
Volkswagen
Volkswagen's 2025 new energy strategy was announced in November 2016, far before other car companies, mainly due to the "dieselgate" incident that broke out in 2015, when they were eager to find a new brand image.
That year, the Volkswagen Group developed the "Transform 2025+" strategy. The strategy has a funding budget of €25 billion, which is broken down into three phases of implementation. In 2020, the stage of repositioning the Volkswagen brand will gradually put electric vehicles in the core position; the second stage is that by 2025, Volkswagen will have a leading position in the entire electric vehicle market, open up revenue channels for new cars, and achieve annual sales of 1 million vehicles; the third stage is to become the leader of the global electric vehicle market by 2030.
In March 2021, the Volkswagen brand renewed its strategy to "Accelerate" on the basis of "Transform 2025+".
For the first time, the "acceleration" strategy has identified three major blocks: digitalization, business model and autonomous driving, which will become the key breakthrough problems for Volkswagen in the future, and software will become the core of the business.
In addition to the original investment, the Volkswagen brand will invest 16 billion euros in electrification, hybridization and digitalization by 2026.
In 2030, the Volkswagen brand aims to account for more than 70% of new car sales in the European market, with pure electric models. In addition, in the Chinese and Us markets, Volkswagen brand pure electric vehicles account for more than 50% of sales.
The Volkswagen brand's first pure electric model to truly digitalize, software and autonomously drive will be Trinity, not the current ID series. Trinity is a general-purpose model with L2+ on autopilot and will be available in 2026.
In addition, in July 2021, the Volkswagen Group proposed a New Auto strategy by 2030, which includes a global target of 50% of pure electric models by the Volkswagen Group by 2030.
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
In January 2022, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance tripartite announced its strategic plan for 2025-2030.
The three parties plan to jointly invest 23 billion euros in electrification over the next five years. By 2026, it plans to launch 35 all-electric models, of which 90% are based on five platforms shared by the alliance, which are CMF-AEV, KEI-EV, LCV-EV, CMF-EV, and CMF-BEV. The CMF-EV platform will launch 15 all-electric models in 2030 and is expected to reach 1.5 million units per year, while the CMF-BEV will be released by 2024, which is a platform for compact models.
In 2025, Renault will launch 14 new cars, of which 7 are pure electric models, and these 14 new cars are expected to account for 45% of Renault's total sales in 2025. Nissan will launch 23 new energy models in 2030, of which 15 are pure electric models. By fiscal year 2030, the proportion of new energy vehicles is expected to be 50%.
Stellantis
The merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot Citroën (PSA) has more than 14 Stellantis brands.
In February 2022, Stellantis just announced its 2030 strategy, called Dare Forward 2030.
By 2030, Stellantis plans to launch at least 75 pure electric models, achieving 5 million pure electric model sales worldwide every year. This year, 100% of new cars sold in the European market were pure electric models, while the proportion of pure electric models in the US market was 50%. All models under the Jeep brand will be purely electrified in 2023.
In addition, by 2024, the Group will expand the application of fuel cell technology on trucks, first listing in the United States in 2025, and then extending to heavy trucks. For the Chinese market, Stellantis will adopt an asset-light model to reduce fixed costs, thereby reducing geopolitical risks.
By 2030, Stellantis has a research and development budget of 300 million euros for new technologies.
general
GM began its path to pure electricity as early as 1996, but now gives way to Tesla.
In 1996, it launched the EV1, a two-seater electric car that was eventually discontinued in 2002, sparking a social conversation in the United States about why electric vehicles could not survive. Then, in 2016, GM launched the Chevrolet Bolt, and a year later officially announced plans for two models based on the Bolt.
GM's first Electric Day (EV DAY) was on March 4, 2020, announcing that it will invest $20 billion by 2025 in research and development of electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies. This budget was readjusted in 2021 with an additional $15 billion, with a total of $35 billion invested by 2025.
The debut is its third-generation electric vehicle platform BEV3, which has modular and scalable attributes, can be adapted to cars, pickups, SUVs and other models, to achieve flexible production, and unveiled the Ultium battery system, which can further reduce costs through the free expansion of the battery.
GM's goal is to establish a multi-brand, multi-sector linkage electric vehicle strategy with the aim of reducing costs.
By 2025, GM plans to launch at least 30 all-electric models. In the North American market, GM aims to sell 1 million all-electric models, including 600,000 electric pickups. By 2030, ensure that 50% of the production capacity of plants in North America and China will be pure electric models.
Honda
Honda announced its electrification strategy in 2017. In 2016, the Pure Electric Models Division was established to develop pure electric models for the Chinese market and regarded 2018 as the first year of its own electric vehicles. Honda's first pure electric model, the Clarity Electric, was released this year and lasted less than 100 kilometers.
For the Chinese market, Honda announced its plans in October 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, the e:N series of pure electric models will be launched. In 2022, the first model will be launched, Dongfeng Honda and Guangqi Honda named e:NS1 and e:NP1 respectively, these two cars have been released as scheduled. There are also three production concept cars, which will also be available by 2025.
Pure electric technology is not Honda's strong point, so in North America, Honda has reached a partnership with GM to produce models using GM's pure electric platform. After Honda's technology matures, it will launch its own pure electric model.
Honda's 2030 goal is to account for two-thirds of new energy models, and in addition to pure electric models, Honda still retains plug-in hybrid and hydrogen models, which is similar to Toyota. In 2040, Honda will stop producing fuel vehicles and fully electrify them.
ford
Ford's electrification strategy was officially unveiled in May 2021 under the name "Ford+".
Ford's electrification layout began with the classic Mustang brand, the commercial vehicle Transit and the world's best-selling pickup, the F-150, which are Ford's iconic models.
The three cars will be delivered in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Ford is targeting three segments of pure e-commerce trucks, pickup trucks and SUVs. Based on Volkswagen's MEB, Ford will also develop another all-new electric vehicle for the European market from 2023. This year, Ford's total global electric vehicle production capacity will reach 600,000, and its goal is to become the second largest U.S. new energy vehicle company after Tesla. At present, it seems unlikely.
Ford's 2030 goal is to account for 40 percent of Ford's global models, and to achieve that goal, Ford will invest $30 billion by 2025.
Bmw
BMW's electrification transformation has gone through three stages.
The first phase, in 2011, marked by the release of the i3 and i8, and the second phase around 2018, when BMW envisioned "a highly flexible production system that would enable an intelligent model architecture compatible with a wide range of powertrains, including pure electric, plug-in hybrids and internal combustion engines." At this stage, BMW's idea is that each of its models offers different power options, from internal combustion engines to hybrids to pure electricity.
Starting in 2021, BMW is in its third phase, abandoning the previous platform three-eat approach and developing a new platform, Neue Klasse, on which new all-electric models are launched, and a new user experience and customized personal upgrade services are provided.
By 2025, BMW aims to achieve a cumulative delivery of 2 million pure electric models worldwide, and in 2030, pure electric models will account for at least 50% of the total delivery volume of the BMW Group, with a cumulative delivery of 10 million vehicles.
During the period, A total of 30 billion euros were invested in R&D and production.
Benz
Like BMW, Mercedes-Benz has hesitated several times in the electrification transformation. In 2020 and 2021, the electrification target for 2025 to 2030 was adjusted twice.
In 2025, one of Mercedes-Benz's goals is to release three all-electric architectures, the three new ones are MB.EA for medium- and large-sized passenger cars, AMG.EA for the high-performance AMG series, and VAN.EA for commercial vehicles, as well as the MMA platform for compact cars.
Between 2022 and 2030, Mercedes-Benz's total investment in electric vehicles will be 40 billion euros.
In 2025, Mercedes-Benz aims to account for 50% of the sales of new energy models, mainly including plug-in hybrid and pure electric models, and all newly released model architectures are pure electric platforms, and each model will provide users with pure electric versions. By 2030, in the market where conditions permit, we will prepare for the realization of all-round pure electric power.
In addition, before 2030, Mercedes-Benz will also fully integrate vertically, from manufacturing, research and development, electric vehicle driving technology, including the acquisition of YASA, a next-generation electric drive technology company headquartered in the United Kingdom.
Mercedes-Benz is currently building the VISION EQXX, a model with a range of 1,000 kilometers.
tesla
Tesla's sales target for 2030 is 20 million units, and if that number comes true, it will become the world's leading car company. The boss in 2021 is Toyota, and the total sales volume is only just over 10 million vehicles.
Elon Musk's logic is that if we maintain our current 50% annual growth, it will not be difficult to achieve this goal by 2030. Many people are more skeptical about how capacity can keep up. What is certain is that Tesla will next increase the capacity of existing factories as well as the number of factories, including battery factories.
In 2021, Tesla delivered a total of 936,000 vehicles worldwide, compared with 500,000 vehicles in 2020, which is basically in line with the target and in line with Musk's estimated 50% growth rate.
This article was originally produced by Automotive Business Review
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