A small number of people in this world have already touched the future in advance, of course, the results are good, but they are not as high as you think.
The time is from Japan in 2014, Toyota Mirai hydrogen fuel cell vehicles began to sell, and then the first time into the US market, but also did not let it be sold all over the world, can only play in California and other more open areas. Later, Hyundai Kia began to chase Toyota, interspersed with news that Honda was going to enter the game.
In short, as of now, there are only two car companies that really play global circulation in the field of passenger cars, Toyota and Hyundai Kia. Among the tens of thousands of small partners around the world who bought these cars, they experienced 1 benefit, and the desire to save money and environmental protection with cars was met, and there were no others.
Laying out so much, I want to say that a few years ago many people shouted, "Why don't such a money-saving car come to China?" When I come, I want to buy it", and I want to be verified in the next relatively short period of time whether it is still "you buy me recommended, I buy I don't buy".
In late March 2022, the national level of the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035)" was released, and our car life will initially begin to contact with hydrogen.
Many big coffee are "not optimistic", but why send it
Just in the past few days, many big guys with heads and faces in friends have given their own evaluations on the hydrogen strategy, the main reason is that "commercialization is not easy to get, and the development of power batteries is not vegetarian", no matter how much, I dare not say.
In short, the current problem is that both Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo have completed at least one technical iteration, and the efficiency of hydrogen fuel cells has become higher, fuel consumption has become lower, and safety has become higher. But the problem is that it can't be sold, because the price is high, and because consumers face the problem of "inconvenience of replenishment".
Enterprises pay for their own hydrogen refueling stations, manufacture their own hydrogen fuel and complete storage, transportation, etc., but also because the price of hydrogen fuel is too expensive, they have to pay for consumers to add fuel. The final result is that the car company has completed the technical test, exploration, verification, and initial test of the market, and the consumer has bought a more expensive car that only discharges water during operation, and there is a lot of money left to maintain the car, and there is nothing else.
As of December 2021, the Toyota Mirai has sold fewer than 20,000 units worldwide, 9,274 units in the U.S. market, 6,618 units in the Japanese market, and 2,048 units in other regions. Hyundai Nexo's sales are mainly concentrated in the local market, exceeding 10,000 units in 2020, and then trying to exert efforts in the European and American markets. From 2014 to 2021, Toyota commercialized 17,000 vehicles in 7 years, and Hyundai commercialized 10,000 vehicles from 2018 to 2020, and the scale is not large, after all, there are too many losses.
Therefore, from this point of view, the relevant plans of the mainland are actually similar, the scale is not large, and more tests are mainly based.
By 2025, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, the number of fuel cell vehicles is about 50,000, the deployment and construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and the amount of renewable energy hydrogen production will reach 100,000-200,000 tons / year; by 2030, the hydrogen energy technology innovation system, hydrogen production, and supply system will be basically completed; and then in 2035, more ecology will be formed, and then the relevant promotion will be completed in the form of marketization.
The number target is not much and not large, by 2025, the average amount of 10,000 early 10,000 in 1 year, and the relevant expression of 2025-2035 are not very specific. Therefore, in the end, it can be seen that the meaning of this related plan is actually very clear, that is, systematic experimentation and exploration.
Therefore, with whether it can be quickly commercialized, nature is more abrupt, and people with heads and faces in the circle of friends of course also know this, and their thinking is naturally, "There is not enough prospect, not enough scale, and the ecological construction will be slow and inefficient." Coupled with the fact that power batteries are not vegetarian, sodium-ion batteries are large-scale commercialization after 2-3 years, solid-state battery technology is running, cobalt-de-cobalt batteries have been commercialized for several years, and nickel-de-nickel batteries are also under development. Charging a battery that lasts 500 kilometers for 10 minutes will almost 100% enter the homes of ordinary people by 2030.
So at this stage, is the relationship between hydrogen energy and consumers large? not too. Is it attractive to consumers? not too. How much room can I make money? Not much.
So why bother? So what's next?
Combined with the above analysis, the landing point of this medium- and long-term planning is actually relatively clear. Who will be involved and become an important part? Naturally, it is a passenger car giant with technical strength, energy, willingness and sufficient financial resources, and at the same time, there are commercial vehicle giants that generally have little relationship with ordinary consumers.
In the two segments of passenger cars/commercial vehicles, combined with the latest developments in global segments, the results are different from the past. When talking about hydrogen energy vehicles in the past, the urgent problems to be solved are "technological breakthroughs in polymer materials, the cost of miniaturization of the whole reactor is too high, it is not good for transportation/storage, and it is not good for large-scale commercialization."
The above are also problems to be solved in related industries around the world, and in the current era, no motivation is naturally not very good to promote. But the new trend is also coming, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are a route, hydrogen engines are naturally still a line.
The main players are Yamaha, Mazda, Subaru, Toyota, and Ford. This time, the route is not fuel cells, but the way of combustion, like burning oil, to burn hydrogen fuel.
Ford, ready to use the product of hydrogen fuel combustion through turbocharging, direct injection in the cylinder, to complete the diversion, through precision calculations, the theoretical air-fuel ratio to about 34.
Toyota, leading Mazda, Subaru, Yamaha, earlier than Ford, started the idea of burning hydrogen. Based on the Lexus RCF's 2UR-GSE5.0LV8, the improvement is made, the intake and exhaust position adjustment, the combustion chamber structure adjustment is increased and the compression ratio is increased, and the spark plug that specially matches hydrogen combustion is added to achieve the effect of burning hydrogen.
Both of the above are looking for hydrogen elements that are three times more energetic than gasoline, but are very active, how to suppress tempering, suppress overheating, ensure safety, and then run like a gasoline engine. Of course, the most important point also includes how this hydrogen fuel should be compressed, perfected, manufactured, stored, and logistics.
However, in the final analysis, this is much faster than the cost and realization of hydrogen fuel cells, and it is relatively cost-effective.
Well, next. The relevant technical routes of Chinese car companies can naturally keep up, study how to build hydrogen fuel that can be burned, and study how to build existing engine technology. However, the topic that should be directly faced is that the original foundation of the fuel engine in the passenger car field is relatively poor, and the potential of the transformation and the ability after the transformation have yet to be determined.
And why to start to push, why to try, the answer is very simple, there is grain in hand, do not panic, but also in order to repeat the passivity of the fuel era.
What is the battlefield facing car companies?
This topic is divided into two areas: commercial vehicles / passenger cars, in view of the fact that the global commercial vehicle era belongs to the local binding is very deep, the free market is relatively low, and the qualification certificate is a high threshold.
The applicable scenarios of commercial vehicles, at present, in other tripartite institutions / enterprises test procurement, ports, closed scenes, mines and other fields, and there is a major feature, higher than 3.5 tons of commercial vehicles, considering the energy consumption caused by vehicle load, increase in self-weight and other issues, pure electric vehicle models in terms of self-weight, endurance and other performance There are obvious limitations.
Relatively high-cost hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, because of the ability to return costs, will largely complete the cost of sharing. The endurance of hydrogen fuel cells, shorter hydrogenation time, lighter weight, these advantages, each of which is a good use of is an opportunity point.
The current commercial vehicle field in the world is similar, south Korea's Hyundai, Japan's Toyota, and mainland related companies have basically released relevant plans/powertrain/road test projects around the end of 2021. Coupled with the fact that countries have corresponding protection mechanisms, Chinese car companies in the commercial vehicle market can naturally sit back and move forward with peace of mind.
The pressure on the passenger car market is obviously great, but there are also many opportunities. Because, even in the 8 years of commercialization, Toyota has not solved the traditional manufacturing costs, operating costs, peripheral costs and other topics. The same is true of Hyundai Nexo, even though iterates faster than the Toyota Mirai, toyota completes 2 iterations and Hyundai currently completes 3 iterations.
Next in the game, there will be a small-scale trial mass production by BMW.
Simply discussing the opportunities of Toyota, Hyundai, and BMW, it is natural that the higher the pricing premium ability of whoever has the ability to price, the higher the cost tolerance of whoever can do it, and the greater the room for development. However, everything is rootless water, because there is no relevant possibility of matching, and it will generally fall back in the end, and what is the use of buying it.
In addition, in view of the corresponding performance of Chinese car companies in this regard, they are in the initial stage, and the analysis is generally a blind guess, which is far from the real valuable results.
So, it's better to return the topic to another, more practical point. In the current era of new energy vehicles, we should bet on solid-state batteries or hydrogen-related technologies.
Solid-state batteries use more lithium, and even 3 times that of the current ternary lithium battery, but also have powerful performance, such as 10-15 minutes to complete 600 kilometers or even higher energy replenishment capacity. Behind it, is the high cost, the industry is expected to be around 2025 will be the first year of small-scale mass production commercialization, around 2030 can form a large-scale sharing advantage, which will affect a certain development route of hydrogen energy.
The more critical variable is whether Chinese car companies will consider introducing hydrogen engines, like Toyota and Ford. This can be an experiment, after the experiment, wait for the ecological progress of the whole industry, and then make a force, so the scale can be controlled. This can be more of a discussion of the future of commercialization, but the pressure is very high, because the policy dependence is too high, we need to consider whether China's relevant infrastructure plans can be matched, but also consider where to go to sea, whether the European market will have opportunities, and so on.
There will be no major changes in the market in the short term, because the upstream and downstream supporting of hydrogen energy is not enough.
The purpose and landing point of the plan are relatively small-scale, and the final result may not only be the topic of 2035, or even more later. There is also the fact that there is grain in hand, and there is no panic in life. It doesn't make much sense for foreign capital to grab any share in the Chinese market first.
For large enterprises, the thinking of the hydrogen part can be done, and for the weak enterprises that want to speculate to reverse their own decline, if there is no premise behind large groups/large capital, this will be the poison of many small enterprises that cannot be mixed in the automotive market.