As soon as the unicorn comes out, who will fight with it?
The Ningde era will be based on the third generation of CTP technology power battery products called "Kirin", probably can not escape this meaning.
At the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum a few days ago, Wu Kai, chief scientist of catheter times, said: Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, the power of the Kirin battery pack can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system.
At the same time, Wu Kai announced that the Kirin battery will be officially released in April this year. However, for more technical indicators of Kirin batteries, Wu Kai is silent.
At this time node, the Ningde era still held the half-covered surface of the pipa to sacrifice the Kirin battery, and the only bright light was also refracted to the Tesla 4680 battery.
The deep meaning behind this is indeed intriguing.
The side of the bed
Of course, King Ning was still the King of Ning.
In 2021, the installed capacity of power batteries in the Ningde era increased by 132% year-on-year, ranking first with a market share of 50%.
Those who wanted to move the soil on king Ning's head, there were more.
The energy density of Fu Neng Technology's ternary soft pack battery can reach 285Wh/kg, which has long been locked by Mercedes-Benz.
The energy density of lithium iron phosphate has reached 185Wh/kg, and it is expected to launch 350Wh/kg products within 3 years.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech self-developed lithium iron phosphate battery based on high-performance LFP cathode material, with a single energy density of 210Wh/kg, and the production capacity is almost rounded by Volkswagen.
In addition, BYD's blade batteries, GAC's magazine batteries, and hive energy cobalt-free batteries are all extraordinary.
On the side of the Bedridden by King Ning, a good faction of power batteries rose together.
A small step in technology is a big step in production capacity. By 2025, the production capacity plans of China Innovation Airlines and Guoxuan Hi-Tech will be 500GWh and 300GWh respectively, and BYD and Hive Energy will even reach 600GWh, which coincides with the 2025 capacity plan of the Ningde era.
The siege of the waist enterprise is enough to make it difficult for the Ningde era to sleep and eat.
The price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the most injured is the Ternary Lithium Giant Ningde Era.
"China cannot go from being necked by oil cards in the era of fuel vehicles to being necked by metal cobalt and metal nickel in the era of electric vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate does not contain rare metals and is more suitable for the tolerance of social resources. ”
This sentence of BYD Wang Chuanfu at this year's Electric Vehicle 100 Forum shows at least two points: the price increase of ternary lithium batteries may have just begun; lithium iron phosphate batteries return to the core track, and the probability is only a beginning.
The overwhelming market advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been normalized.
Taking the recent February as an example, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was about 5.82GWh, an increase of 238% year-on-year; the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries was about 4.96GWh, an increase of 93% year-on-year.
The Ningde era, which is known for its square ternary lithium batteries, is about to face an almost predictable industry crisis, and the Kirin battery may make it easier for the Ningde era to become passive to active.
In March, new energy vehicle companies that were dizzy by the lack of cores and the price increase of batteries could only choose the general increase to cope. At this time, the Kirin battery brings low-cost, high-density news, such as a clear stream in the turbid world.
Unexpectedly, the stock price of the Ningde era rose sharply.
Sleep with the tiger in your arms
Although the Capital Waist Enterprise is eyeing the Ningde era, in terms of technology, the Ningde era has always been firmly king.
Killing chickens requires a cattle knife, and the Kirin battery has compared Tesla's 4680 battery in all directions from the beginning.
4680 is very good.
On the basis of the 2170, the 4680 has increased energy by 5 times, increased mileage by 16%, reduced cost by 14%, and can charge from 10% to 80% in just 15 minutes.
Finding a strong competitor to benchmark can better illustrate your own strength, and this logic is no problem.
However, there are three basic pieces of information that cannot be ignored.
Kirin battery is based on the third generation of CTP technology, essentially still did not jump out of THE PACK, or in the battery pack to do structural changes.
This may also be the commercial application of the last generation of CTP technology in the Ningde era.
According to the plan, CATL will realize the commercial use of CTC technology in 2025. That is, eliminate the battery pack and integrate the battery cell directly into the chassis.
The 4680 is a commercial example of CTC technology. Therefore, there is actually a generational difference between kirin and 4680.
In the future, CTC will certainly be cheaper than CTP.
This year, Tesla is expected to get on board with a 4680 battery system. Since the scale has not yet been formed, the cost advantage is not obvious.
So far, Tesla is the largest customer in the Ningde era. In 2021, CATL provided Tesla with a battery of 14.61GWh, accounting for 17.5% of the total shipments, double that of the second-place Weilai.
The combination of these three pieces of information is very telling - CATL and Tesla are both rivals and commercial partners.
Because of the existence of 4680, the importance of the Ningde era to Tesla is far lower than the importance of Tesla to the Ningde era.
Rather than saying that the Ningde era uses the Kirin hard Tesla 4680, it is better to say that the Ningde era shouts Tesla.
This may be the main reason why the Ningde era even ignored the old rival BYD and first benchmarked the Kirin battery against the 4680 battery.
CATL was founded in 2011 and became the first in the global industry seven years later. However, to become famous at a young age, it is still necessary to smelt steel.
We can't overemphasize the importance of the outlet, so why is it the Ningde era and not anything else.
There is no doubt that the Ningde era deserves to be respected by this era.
"I never intend to make money the day after I buy a stock, and when I buy a stock, I always assume that the exchange will close tomorrow and reopen after 5 years to resume trading."
Buffett's words tell us that once you enter the game, patience is the premise of profit.
In the chaotic era, strategic determination may be as important as core technology.