The price of new energy vehicle credits has plunged, and it is more difficult for car companies to make profits?

On March 31, Landu Automobile announced a price increase for its products, of which the price of land free pure electric models increased by 10,000 yuan, and the extended range models were temporarily raised. The price of the new version will take effect on May 1.

Since March this year, dozens of new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases in response to cost pressures from rising raw material prices. Some analysts pointed out that the current concentrated price increase of new energy vehicles is also closely related to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the diving of integral prices.

A few days ago, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said in a public speech that it is recommended to study and set up a new energy vehicle credit pool with reference to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the credit price of new energy vehicles, and ensure the effective operation of the double credit policy.

Sales rose and the price of points plunged

Since the beginning of this year, despite the epidemic superimposed chip shortage, raw material prices and other factors still exist, the new energy vehicle market still maintains a high degree of heat, becoming the most eye-catching sector in the current automotive industry.

According to the data disclosed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to February 2022, the domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles were 820,000 units and 765,000 units, an increase of 1.6 times and 1.5 times year-on-year, with a fierce rise.

However, while the sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, the integral price of new energy vehicles has dropped sharply. Fang Yunzhou, founder and chairman of Nezha Automobile, told the Securities Times E company reporter that in recent years, the price of new energy vehicles has fluctuated greatly, the price of points in 2019 is about 1000 yuan / min, in 2021 it rose to 2000 yuan / min, this year, the price of points fell back to about 1000 yuan / min, and the sharp price fluctuations constituted a certain pressure on the operating pressure of enterprises.

Euler brand CEO Dong Yudong also revealed to the Securities Times E company reporter that before, the highest points of new energy vehicles can soar to 2500 yuan / point, and the current latest price may only be 500 yuan / min - 800 yuan / cent.

It is understood that the introduction of the "double integral" management method is mainly to improve the energy saving level of passenger cars and establish a smooth mechanism for the management of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. In 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Measures for the Parallel Management of Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Enterprises and New Energy Vehicle Credits", that is, the "Double Credit Management Measures". Passenger car companies are set two goals for fuel vehicle energy conservation and development of new energy vehicles, and the assessment indicators of "fuel consumption" (CAFC) and "new energy" (NEV) are set up. Among them, the new energy vehicle credit (NEV) is the difference between the actual value of the new energy vehicle credit of the enterprise and the standard value, and the actual value is higher than the standard value to produce positive points, and below the standard value to produce negative points.

For those enterprises with negative points, the difference in points can be made up by purchasing. In 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with relevant departments, revised the "double credit" management measures to allow the transfer of points between foreign-invested vehicle enterprises in China. This move has further accelerated the circulation of new energy vehicle credits in the industry, and also strengthened the motivation of enterprises to transform to electrification.

It is reported that since the implementation of the "double integral" method, the average fuel consumption level of mainland passenger cars has decreased as a whole, and the enthusiasm for enterprises to develop new energy vehicles has also increased significantly.

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2020, the cumulative positive points of new energy vehicles generated by passenger car enterprises nationwide are 4.2 million points, and the negative points are 920,000 points. The positive integral of new energy vehicles is generally higher than that of negative integral, and shows a trend of increasing year by year. More and more traditional enterprises are actively expanding the production capacity of new energy vehicles, laying the foundation for the industry to generate more positive points for new energy vehicles.

However, with the expansion of the overall scale of new energy vehicles, the supply and demand of points has also broken the original balance, resulting in a sharp decline in the price of new energy vehicle credits.

Western Securities pointed out that the reason why the predicted transaction price of new energy integrals has decreased in a short period of time is mainly because the production and sales of new energy vehicles will grow rapidly in 2021, which will increase the supply of market points, thereby affecting the transaction price.

The industry is calling for the establishment of a NEV credit pool

In March this year, China Automobile Data Co., Ltd. released the joint research results of the 2021 integral price forecast. The report shows that the annual forecast range for points accounting is 2600-2900 yuan / min (based on the forecast of the mid-2021 perspective, for the january-December 2021 trading period); the annual forecast range of the integral trading is 1000-1400 yuan / min (based on the perspective of the beginning of 2022, for the january-September 2022 trading period forecast).

This means that the sinking of the integral price of new energy vehicles in 2022 has become an inevitable trend, and this will also directly affect the income of some enterprises with abundant integral accumulation.

According to the information disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the top ten car companies in the 2020 new energy vehicle points are Tesla, BYD Automobile Industry, SAIC-GM-Wuling, GAC Passenger Cars, BYD Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Chery New Energy, BAIC Shares and WM Motor.

Western Securities analysis said that the current passenger car companies' new energy vehicle credit situation is seriously differentiated, but the reduction of transaction prices will not affect the power of the main engine factory to develop and sell new energy vehicles, and in the long run, new energy is still the strategic focus of the transformation of car companies.

In view of the recent plunge in the price of new energy vehicle credits, many people in the industry have also put forward appeals. Wang Chuanfu suggested that we can refer to the grain reserve adjustment mechanism of agriculture and study the establishment of a point pool to adjust the balance between supply and demand, enhance the predictability of the point price, and ensure the effective operation of the double credit policy.

Fang Yunzhou also believes that the double integration policy should be further studied, and without reducing the value of the bicycle NEV points, it should achieve the balance between market supply and demand, and ensure that the NEV points are above 2000 yuan / point. At the same time, it is recommended that the government or entrust the industry management department to set up a virtual trading platform or a pool of points, adjust the relationship between supply and demand in the market, regulate the proportion of enterprises and sell points at the same price, and stabilize the transaction price.

The "double credit" is expected to be integrated with carbon reduction policies

"The original intention of the double credit policy is to promote energy conservation and emission reduction of automobile enterprises, especially the establishment of new energy vehicle credits, and more to promote the new energy transformation of enterprises, from the current point of view, this effect has been achieved." Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told the Securities Times e company reporter that at present, the mainland has set a clear carbon peak, carbon neutrality goal, the development of new energy vehicles is also an inevitable trend, even if there is no points of assessment drive, enterprises will consciously invest in the field of new energy vehicles, so the decline in the price of points is natural, in the future, the double points policy will bid farewell to the historical stage after completing its mission.

A few days ago, at the 2022 China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum, Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, made it clear that the carbon peak and carbon neutrality strategy put forward new requirements for industrial development, and there are many upstream and downstream industries involved in automobiles, which must be taken into account and promoted systematically to improve the green and low-carbon level of the whole chain and the whole cycle.

Xin Guobin revealed that as the competent department of the industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is strengthening the systematic study of the problems faced in the new stage of industrial development, and will revise and improve the management method of double points, explore the establishment of a flexible adjustment mechanism, and clarify the requirements for the proportion of subsequent annual points. Organize the preparation of a green and low-carbon development roadmap for the automotive industry, strengthen coordination with international carbon emissions and carbon footprint management policies, and provide guidance for industry enterprises.

Ye Shengji said that from a future perspective, there is no doubt that the double integral management method will be integrated with the carbon reduction policy.

Fang Yunzhou told the Securities Times e company reporter that new energy vehicle companies also hope that the state can promote new energy vehicles and energy storage products to participate in the national carbon trading market for trading.