Author 丨 Zhang Zhidong
Responsible editor 丨 Cui Liwen
Edit 丨 Chic
Since the resumption of trading on the London Metal Exchange, Lun Nickel has been touching the drop limit for many consecutive days, and as of March 22, the price of Lun Nickel is 28250 US dollars / ton, from 55,000 US dollars / ton before the suspension, to now close to the waist.
The good news is that the evil "demon nickel" is cooling down rapidly at this moment; but bad news has also followed, and new energy vehicles are "addictive to price increases".
Not long ago, Li xiang revealed in Weibo that the car companies that are now raising prices are basically brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase of batteries in the second quarter. As for those who have not increased their prices, most of them have not been negotiated, and they will generally increase prices immediately after waiting for negotiations.
From the perspective of vehicle manufacturing, the prices of aluminum, magnesium, lithium, steel, oil, rubber and other important raw materials required for automobile production continue to rise, which does bring a lot of trouble to car companies.
And the protagonist of the recent series of turbulences, "nickel", is not only an important material for the body, but also an indispensable key to the power battery.
However, compared with the current actions of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles in the domestic market, fuel vehicles that dare not "refuel" are maintaining sufficient restraint.
The new energy vehicle on the other side is like an "explosive barrel", one point.
Taking Tesla as an example, the price has increased 3 times in just 8 days. On March 10, Tesla Model 3 high-performance version, Model Y long-endurance version, ModelY high-performance version were all raised by 10,000 yuan; on March 15, Model 3 rear-wheel drive version, high-performance version and Model Y long-endurance, high-performance version, increased by 14,000-20,000 yuan; on March 17, the model Y rear-wheel drive version of the foundation was raised by 15,060 yuan again.
With the head bird, there will be a group of followers. Tesla stirred up thousands of waves, and many new energy vehicle companies have also responded, saying that because of the rise in raw materials, they had to adjust the price.
But a question that must be considered is: even if the logic of cost transfer makes sense, consumers who choose new energy vehicles should passively accept the price increase?
01 Extenuating circumstances, but not for granted
In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%, and around New Year's Day, some car companies will announce the first price increase.
Taking the lead are Tesla, Zero Run, Nezha, Xiaopeng and other popular new energy vehicle companies, of which the highest price increase is as high as 10,000 yuan, and the lowest is also 2,000 yuan.
Shortly after, the "demon nickel" incident acted as a fuse, and the price of raw materials upstream of power batteries rose again and again. New energy vehicle companies have also taken advantage of this to open up twice, opening a second wave of price increases.
Yes. The unified reason for the new energy vehicle companies this time is the "rise in raw materials". After multiple sources confirmed, the spearhead pointed to the surge in the cost of power batteries.
"Nickel" is crazy, "cobalt" grandma is infested, coupled with "lithium" a big spectrum, the entire power battery raw material supply chain, precarious.
As a result, the owners of the most upstream mineral resources have blossomed, and "mine owners" such as Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt have undoubtedly made a lot of money by virtue of this opportunity.
According to relevant data, the price of lithium carbonate rose from 280,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 500,000 yuan / ton; the price of cobalt rose from 497,000 yuan / ton to 568,000 yuan / ton; although the price of nickel has cooled, it has also risen from 155,000 yuan / ton to 228,000 yuan / ton...
In this way, according to the logic of the supply chain layer by layer, the soaring cost of raw materials in the short term is the first to bear the brunt of battery suppliers like the Ningde era.
Immediately after the cost transfer, there is also the internal news revealed by Li Xiang at the beginning of the article - "first talk about the battery price increase, and then increase the price of the car" operation.
In short, when the means of cost transfer act on the consumer terminal, battery manufacturers and car companies reduce losses, but consumers pay for love power generation.
When many people rushed to shout "buying a new energy vehicle is the most successful financial management this year", they can't help but have a sense of "being sold, but also paying for the number of people".
Of course, perhaps those who ridicule will not necessarily buy "price increase cars", but there are always people who pursue "resources are always scarce" and voluntarily pay money.
So, here I want to repeat the old tune, why Qingshan will do empty nickel.
Unlike copper, aluminum, zinc and other varieties, the spot market and futures market of nickel are relatively small, and the market information is not transparent enough, and industrial leaders like Qingshan have obvious information advantages, and even a certain degree of "pricing power".
It is either the conviction of its own output, or the prediction of the future development of the situation, so Qingshan will hope to hedge the spot risk by shorting futures. But the end result is obvious, Aoyama planted a big heel.
However, its internal logic should not be ignored, "nickel king" Aoyama based on his many years of experience, as well as his understanding of his own nickel production prospects, only to have a "short nickel" market judgment.
In other words, it is precisely because of the breakthrough of Qingshan's "nickel-making" technology that the supply of high-ice nickel can be greatly increased, and under the prejudgment of oversupply, there will be a conclusion that "nickel prices are about to decline".
So guess what, when the current limelight passes, will the nickel price return to normal?
02 The consequence of price increases may be "chaos"
"The sales of Weima next door have said that BYD Song DMi has increased the price by 50,000 yuan and people have bought it."
Last week's car market investigation, when talking with the staff of BYD's direct sales store about the current general increase in new energy vehicles, he said such a sentence with a little ridicule.
He added one after another: "Because the Shanghai hybrid free green card policy was cancelled at the end of the year, in order to prevent the production capacity from being difficult to deliver before the year, the relevant orders in Shanghai may stop receiving." ”
Although the true or false situation is unknown, or the unified words of the sales staff, what needs to be pointed out is that Tesla's price increase is paid by someone because the brand power is enough; BYD's price increase is paid by someone because the product force is in line with the price.
So what do other brands rely on to have the courage to increase the price on the consumer's head?
Previously, authoritative media reported that the relevant person in charge of a new energy vehicle company said that since the second half of last year, the price of ningde era power batteries has increased twice. According to the battery cost of a new energy vehicle, the last time it rose by 10,000 yuan, and not long ago it rose by 10,000 yuan.
In this news, the C dimension also asked the Ningde era for verification, although the Ningde era official did not make too much explanation, but still responded: affected by the upstream price increase, has dynamically adjusted the price of some battery products.
In this way, the cost of power batteries has indeed risen. Car companies said that it is difficult to control costs, and it can only be said that it is understandable to adjust prices. But what are the consequences of the price increase?
In the process of writing this article, the news came from the ideal car again. From April 1, the ideal ONE will rise from $338,000 to $349,800, up $11,800.
It is not difficult to imagine that perhaps Li wants to disclose the current situation of the industry in advance, just to give a preventive shot to the ideal ONE price increase at this time.
And according to the current limited information speculation, the Q2 quarter of the entire new energy vehicle market may not be as good as imagined.
For car companies, whether they can't help themselves or intentionally, the next market is likely to encounter the following situations:
1. Affected by the surge in battery costs, chip supply crisis, epidemic, war and other aspects, the domestic new energy vehicle market has turned into a downturn;
2, everyone's price increase I also rose, strong brands are still selling well, weak brands have empty prices no one to buy, Matthew effect, strong Hengqiang;
3, consumers do not care about the price increase of new energy vehicles, the overall market share remains unchanged, the market sentiment is still upward;
4, consumers care about the price increase of new energy vehicles, water energy boats can also overturn the boat, under the market changes, some new energy vehicle companies have been eliminated.
Shopping malls are like battlefields, and the years of tempering in the automobile market have been filled with traces of blood and fire. The new energy vehicle track looks young, but it has long become a red sea.
In the past, the brands that have been eliminated one after another do not say, but the brands such as Evergrande Automobile and Zotye, which are "famous for a while", are already on the verge of "stalling".
Of course, I dare not say that the price increase of new energy vehicle companies is not right, even if the price is added to the head of consumers, it can also alleviate a sentence of "in the business of business".
But one thing that must be clear: the price of the car should match the product power and brand power, and the price increase does not represent the rise of the brand, and may even "collapse" the image.
03 If the raw materials are reduced, will the price of the car fall?
The good news is that on March 16, the Department of Raw Material Industry and the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Price Department of the Development and Reform Commission, the Price Supervision and Inspection bureau of the State Administration of Market Supervision and the Bureau of Anti-Unfair Competition, have jointly organized a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and a symposium on the price increase of upstream materials for power batteries.
According to the requirements of the meeting, upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the docking of supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices, increase efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles in the mainland.
In addition to this top-down focus, the regulatory function of the market itself will also play a significant role.
Taking lithium salt as an example, as the core raw material of power batteries, lithium salt is a cyclical industry after all, and there will be dark moments when there is a highlight.
As the boss of Ganfeng Lithium said: "Lithium carbonate has 200,000 yuan / ton yesterday, and may also have 40,000 yuan / ton tomorrow." ”
Although it is now affected by the long tail of the soaring price of raw materials, it is likely to last for a period of time, but there is also reason to believe that there is a normal market rhythm. What's more, will the battery technology in the future no longer be iteratively innovated?
According to research by research institute Visual Capitalist, since 2010, the average price of lithium-ion electric vehicle battery packs has dropped from $1200/kWh to $132/kWh in 2021.
And what is certain is that since lithium-ion batteries were first commercially available in 1991, costs have fallen dramatically by 97 percent with breakthroughs in chemical and materials science research.
Therefore, when asked how to solve the impact of the rise of raw materials on the existing market, CATL replied to the C dimension: The company mainly reduces production costs and raw material costs by improving product performance and energy density, optimizing product design, improving production processes, improving product yields, achieving more efficient automated production, and reaching in-depth cooperation with the industrial chain.
Science and technology is the primary productive force, and the innovation of battery technology is also the way to solve the problem fundamentally.
In fact, whether it is academia or industry, the innovation of battery technology is always following step by step. Cobalt-free batteries, lithium metal solid-state batteries, sodium-ion batteries, etc., can be regarded as the product of technological innovation, performance has been improved, and costs have been reduced.
Then, a new question arises: if the cost of power batteries is further controlled later, will the car companies that are competing for price increases at this time also reduce prices?
Is it only going to rise, not down?