Wen 丨 Sun Guangxin
Editor| Wenbin
Ideals that do not intend to increase prices have also increased prices. On the morning of March 23, Ideal Auto announced that from April 1, the price of Ideal ONE was raised by 11,800 yuan, an increase of 3.4%.
The reason for the price increase is also the increase in the price of raw materials. On March 19, Li Xiang, founder, chairman and CEO of Ideal Auto, said on Weibo, "Brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately." If there is no price increase, most of them have not yet been negotiated, and the price will generally increase immediately after waiting for the negotiation. ”
In about a week, Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng Automobile, Nezha Automobile, Weima and other car companies have announced price increases. According to incomplete statistics, since entering March, more than 40 electric vehicles from nearly 20 new energy vehicle companies have announced price increases. Among them, Tesla's last two price increases are only 5 days apart, and some models have risen by about 30,000 yuan; BYD, WM, Xiaopeng Automobile, etc. this year are also the second price increases, and Xiaopeng Motors, in addition to announcing price increases for some models, has also cut the rights and interests of owners such as 1,000 degrees of free charging.
The reason for this situation is that some battery companies have changed the price negotiation rules. According to the weekly analysis of the third week of March released by the Federation of Automobile Manufacturers, some battery companies have changed the price negotiation rules this year, the price is negotiated quarterly, and there are price openings, so the pressure on car companies that sign new orders after the price increase of power batteries is very large, and can only alleviate the cost pressure by increasing prices.
Buying a car is comparable to investment, in the face of the recent collective price increase in new energy vehicles, some netizens joked, "After two weeks of lifting the car, the price has increased, it is already 9,000 more expensive than when I bought it, is this a net profit of 9,000?" ”
Li Xiang, who has always been honest, also said that "war, politics, and the epidemic have allowed the purchase of cars to appreciate in value, and the overall price of used cars in the United States has increased by 30%."
After the price increase, many people began to seek low-price transfer orders on various platforms. That is, through the purchase of undelivered orders from others at a higher price, because the price of the transfer order is lower than the price increase of the car company, and it can shorten the pick-up time to a certain extent, it has also become a curve plan for some people to buy a car.
"The notice of this price increase is very sudden," a BEIJING BYD salesman told Guangcai Intelligence. "It may rise again in May, but there is no official news yet, and everything is subject to official news."
Regarding the reasons for this price increase, the answers of major car companies are similar, basically because of subsidies, raw material prices, and the impact of the epidemic. Specifically, the impact of subsidy decline has long been foreseen, and the reason for the concentrated price increase of this round of new energy vehicle companies is raw materials, and among the raw materials, batteries are the most important factor in this round of price increases.
The price of raw materials for lithium batteries has risen sharply
Batteries are the most direct reason for the concentrated price increase of new energy vehicles in this round.
The person in charge of a new energy vehicle company said in an interview with the media that CATL has increased prices for 2 rounds since the second half of 2021, with a price increase of 10,000 yuan per round. In this regard, CATL said that due to the sharp rise in the price of upstream raw materials, the company dynamically adjusted the price of some battery products accordingly.
In addition to the Ningde era, other domestic power battery manufacturers are also raising prices. In the fourth quarter of 2021, bydir, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy and other power battery manufacturers have issued price increase notices.
The rise in the price of lithium battery raw materials is mainly due to the soaring prices of lithium and nickel.
On March 23, the price of lithium carbonate has risen to 510,000 yuan / ton, and only 50,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021. Nickel rose even more wildly, with nickel quotes rising from less than $30,000/ton to more than $100,000/ton on March 7 and 8 alone. Shanghai nickel futures also appeared at the same time for three consecutive trading days. Minsheng Securities and other institutions said that today's Russian-Ukrainian military conflict has also exacerbated the supply pressure of nickel.
Data collation: Business agency
In addition, the price of battery recycling has also increased significantly. According to relevant media reports, in January last year, lithium iron phosphate cathode waste powder was only 4,000 yuan / ton, in January this year rose to 40,000 yuan / ton, up nearly 10 times, in February the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode fee powder doubled, rising to about 80,000 yuan / ton.
Although at the moment when the price of nickel is high, many car companies have begun to consider lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher cost performance, but in the long run, the impact of nickel prices on power batteries will continue. Due to the long production process of lithium batteries, the price of raw materials selected by battery factories has been locked before production, and the impact of the recent rise in raw material prices on lithium batteries will continue, which will eventually be transmitted to the downstream industry of lithium batteries.
In addition, the growing demand for new energy vehicles and the contradiction between the supply of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium batteries, also makes it difficult for the price of lithium carbonate to fall in the short term, which is also not conducive to the reduction of power batteries and vehicle manufacturers. Guojin Securities believes that the current head manufacturers have very abundant orders in hand, Tesla and other car cycles of 12-16 weeks, BYD's popular models for 6 months. It is expected that the industry sales in the first quarter are expected to exceed 1 million, and the annual sales of new energy passenger cars will exceed 5.5 million.
Driven by demand, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Coupled with the current chip shortage problem that has not been perfectly solved, the trend of rising prices of new energy vehicles will continue.
However, the impact of simple price increases on sales of new energy vehicles is limited. A Beijing car owner said that although new energy vehicles are currently rising in price, the amount of price increases is acceptable, not to mention that buying a car also needs to consider many other factors, and it will not be bought because it has risen by thousands of dollars.
In fact, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and market speculation receded, the prices of some raw materials have begun to fall, such as Lun Nickel, which has fallen for four consecutive days after resuming trading on March 16. On March 22, Shanghai nickel also closed down 3.55%. The weekly analysis of the association also believes that this round of price increases is relatively rational, the battery price problem is a short-term resource mismatch, with the improvement of technology and the huge investment of world capital, the world's lithium battery shortage problem will be gradually resolved.
However, the collective price increase of new energy vehicles has also exposed that in the process of new energy vehicles gradually getting rid of policy dividends and moving towards marketization, the impact of cost pressure and supply chain security on the profitability of enterprises has become more and more prominent, especially car companies with small cars with small profits or even negative gross profits as the main source of sales, and need to accelerate the pace of transformation to the mid-waist market.
New energy vehicle companies have long wanted to increase prices?
In addition to the rise in raw material prices, the price increase is actually related to the profit problems faced by some new energy vehicle companies.
Before the price increase was announced, the relevant staff of the ideal car had said that there was no price increase notice inside the ideal car, and the price would not be increased at present, nor would it suddenly increase the price, but due to the rapid increase in the price of the battery, the price increase of new energy vehicles has become a trend, and if there is no profit in selling the car, the ideal will also increase the price.
The gross profit margin of Ideal Auto in 2021 is 21.3%, which is already at a high level in the new domestic car-making forces, but it is also necessary to cope with the rise in raw material prices through price increases, not to mention other new car-making forces. For example, the gross profit margin of zero-run cars in 2021 is -44.3%, and selling cars is spending money to make a friend.
In February this year, Euler suspended orders for two low-end models, the Black Cat and the Good Cat, which accounted for 65% of Euler's total sales in 2021. Euler CEO Dong Yudong said in an open letter, "Taking Euler Black Cat as an example, after the sharp rise in raw materials in 2022, the black cat lost more than 10,000 yuan per unit. ”
According to Euler's official website, the price of the 2022 model of the car is only 69,800-84,800 yuan. Dong Yudong also said, "If you follow the current sales rhythm, the loss of a single car may reach 17,000 yuan next year." ”
For car companies that are similar to the situation of zero-run cars and Euler, raising the price of the price is the most direct way to cope with the rising pressure on costs.
At the same time, the current new energy vehicles are a dumbbell pattern, that is, models below 100,000 yuan and more than 250,000 yuan occupy the main market, of which car companies with small cars under 100,000 yuan need to cope with cost pressure through price increases.
In July 2021, Xcar reported that the profit of a Wuling Hongguang MINI was only 89 yuan, so these low-end models were more affected by the price increase of raw materials such as batteries.
Euler CEO Dong Yudong once said that "only more than 150,000 products have room for profitability", after suspending the order for two low-end cars, Euler will launch several models in 2022 mostly in the range of 150,000-200,000 yuan, and some even more than 200,000 yuan.
In the previous article of light cone intelligence, "New ranking of car manufacturing, why is it difficult for the second echelon to become the first?" As mentioned in the book, Nezha Automobile and Zero-run Cars have also launched models of more than 100,000 yuan before, and marched into first- and second-tier cities to try to transform from low-end to mid-range.
In addition, the price reduction of new energy credits has further narrowed the profit space of these car companies. At the beginning of 2022, the average price of new energy vehicle credits has dropped to 1,000 yuan / point, compared with the average price of 2,000 yuan / min in 2021, a drop of 50%, and the space for new energy vehicle companies to obtain profits through the sale of new energy points has also been squeezed.
Therefore, with the price of new energy vehicles rising one after another, the era of low prices grabbing the market will eventually pass. The rising price of new energy vehicles may promote the acceleration of the layout of new energy vehicle companies to the mid-waist market.
In addition, according to the weekly analysis of the third week of March released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, the overall economic downturn may lead to polarization of the car-buying population, both just need to buy a car and an improved car. At present, the strong demand for improvement is strong.
Because these small cars solve only the most basic transportation needs, providing the most basic intelligent functions, far from reaching the owner's improved car purchase needs, which means that the price increase is not a long-term solution, although the owner has a certain tolerance for the price increase, but the price increase also needs to provide more functions and quality services for the owner to improve the long-standing problems.
Especially for new energy vehicle companies that mainly solve the low-end model of the simple transportation function, although the popularity of new energy vehicles is the trend of the times, it is still a long time before the complete replacement of fuel vehicles, and blindly following the trend of price increases is not conducive to further expanding sales, but also reducing the competitiveness of fuel vehicles at the same price.
If you want to gain fame and fortune, you need to improve the level of intelligence of products in the case of meeting the most basic transportation needs, which also requires these companies to launch higher-priced models.
He Xiaopeng, founder and CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, once said that the watershed of smart electric vehicles is the sales price of 150,000 yuan. If it is higher than 150,000 yuan, it belongs to intelligent electric vehicles, and below 150,000 yuan, it does not belong to intelligent electric vehicles. Because the price is too low, there is no way to do a good job of car intelligence.
Higher price points require more intelligent capabilities, which requires more investment in research and development, not to mention the cost factors such as raw material prices, new energy vehicle companies need to make more changes.
Core self-development is the last word
Driven by the rise in raw material prices and their own profit needs, more and more enterprises have begun to cultivate internal strength.
For example, whether it is a new car-making force or a traditional car company, they have begun to solve the problem of battery supply and cost through self-developed and self-produced batteries. Among them, many new car manufacturers do not have their own battery production lines, but they have been able to develop their own batteries.
The trend to get rid of a single battery supplier has long emerged.
On March 21, Huayou Cobalt issued an announcement announcing that Volkswagen Group (China) signed a memorandum of cooperation with Huayou Cobalt and Tsingshan Holdings to jointly establish a joint venture company. Volkswagen Group China said that the cooperation will help achieve the long-term goal of reducing the group's battery cost by 30%-50% in the production of nickel and cobalt raw materials and the integration of lithium battery cathode materials respectively.
On March 11, Sunwoda Auto Battery Co., Ltd., which weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile jointly participated in the investment, and Zhuhai City officially signed the Sunwoda new energy production base project.
One of the reasons why Sunwoda can obtain the joint investment of Li Xiaowei is that it can increase suppliers, and Sunwoda's market share in the field of power batteries is low, and its voice is relatively weak, which is more conducive to car companies to ensure supply security than to grab orders from industry giants such as the Ningde era.
On March 10, GAC Aean's self-developed power battery trial production line officially started, and is expected to be completed by the end of 2022. Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of GAC Aean, said in an interview with the media: In the future, 30% of GAC Eian's high-end batteries will be self-developed and produced, while 70% of the low-end batteries will be oem by external battery companies. On March 22, GAC Group announced that it would jointly invest 4.96 billion yuan with GAC Aean to establish an energy company to develop energy storage systems.
In addition, the impact of battery price increases on terminal products will also be solved through other means, GAC Group said at the investor relations event on March 18 that the state is also concerned about the phenomenon of continuous rise in raw material prices, and believes that policies will be introduced in due course to regulate. The business community is also proposing to reduce the export of some energy storage batteries, thereby improving the supply of domestic power batteries. At the same time, the battery development has not yet reached the ultimate state, new technologies and new technologies are still emerging, so we believe that there is still price pressure on the battery in the short term, and the battery price will return to rationality in the long run.
However, whether it is self-developed batteries, or hope for policy regulation and technological innovation, it may still be a long process for car companies that urgently need to solve the price problem, so compared with controlling costs, when new energy vehicles can achieve profitability, it is still sales.
In 2021, Tesla, which has annual sales of more than 900,000 vehicles, achieved annual profitability by relying on the car-making business for the first time, allowing people to see the hope of profitability of new energy vehicle companies. Bohai Securities' previous research report predicted that the break-even points of Weilai, Ideal Automobile and Xiaopeng Automobile were 169,600 vehicles, 51,600 vehicles and 116,800 vehicles per year, respectively. In 2021, the sales of Weilai, Xiaopeng Automobile and GAC Aean were 91429 units, 98155 vehicles and 123660 vehicles, respectively, which did not reach the expected sales, and the sales volume of Ideal Automobile in 2021 was 90491 units, but it was not yet profitable.
While the results of the forecasts are not necessarily accurate, both institutions and companies regard sales volume as an important indicator of achieving breakeven.
However, with the gradual dissipation of policy dividends, coupled with the cost and supply chain control problems exposed to the public in front of the new energy vehicle price increase, it is also reminding companies not only to look at sales, models with a price of more than 150,000 yuan is the future of most new energy vehicle companies, and product prices also need to be raised.
But the problem is that the growth of the price needs to be supported by quality, for new energy vehicles, the main competitiveness is the level of intelligence, especially in the new energy vehicle market gradually from dumbbell type to rugby type in the future, for these car companies, improve the basic ability of products and intelligent level, in order to obtain a stable market share in the high-end market.
At the same time, battery research and development and production is also a lot of investment, which also poses a lot of challenges to the company's cash flow, therefore, in the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, more and more car companies began to seek listing, in order to further improve R & D, production capacity.
In addition to the new forces such as Nezha Automobile and Zero-Run Automobile, some new energy vehicle companies with traditional car companies background are also seeking independent listing, GAC Aeon has clearly had an IPO plan on March 18, and Changan New Energy has also been exposed or will land in the secondary market around 2025.
Getting more money, polishing better products, and increasing sales may become the main theme of new energy vehicle competition in the future.