In 2021, the mainland will sell about 3 million new energy passenger cars, and the penetration rate will rise rapidly from about 5% to 14.8%, killing fuel vehicles and abandoning armor. According to the forecasts of the Federation of Passenger Vehicles and third-party consulting agencies, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in mainland China in 2022 will be between 5.5 million and 6 million units, and will continue to increase by more than 80% on the high base in 2021, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 25%.
Personally, I think this expectation has a high probability of being realized, because 2022 is the last year of the mainland's electric vehicle subsidies, and many established car manufacturers will also launch various electric models in 2022. On the one hand, consumers rush to buy, on the other hand, manufacturers take the initiative to promote, demand and supply factors are available, sales are high, and water is in a natural way.
However, can lithium battery cars really be unique in the future? I think it's too early to say. The following throw bricks lead to jade, but also wish the opening of the volume beneficial.
The more popular the lithium battery car, the more expensive it is
With the rapid growth of electric vehicles last year, it is not only the stock prices of related industrial chain companies, but also the prices of upstream lithium mines:
Lithium carbonate from the lowest point of 60,000 yuan / ton rose to the latest 460,000 yuan / ton, according to estimates, lithium ore prices rose by 100,000 yuan, new energy vehicle sales unit price will rise 4,000-5,000 yuan / vehicle. In the future, as the number of bicycles with new models increases, this impact will be even greater.
The mainland has the world's largest automobile consumption market, but the lithium ore reserves are only 7% of the global total, and our autonomy in upstream raw materials is not enough. Before the outbreak of new energy vehicles, about 90% of lithium batteries were mainly used in 3C electronics, and the high point of lithium carbonate prices at that time was more than 100,000, and now more than 70% of lithium is used in new energy vehicles, and the price of lithium ore has risen to an unprecedented 460,000 yuan.
It can be said that the sales of electric vehicles and the price of lithium ore have entered the fast lane. From the perspective of the scarcity of upstream resources, electric vehicles may be a car that is more popular and more expensive.
According to the latest data from the Traffic Management Bureau at the end of December 2021, the number of cars in the mainland exceeded 300 million, while the number of new energy vehicles in the mainland was only 7.84 million. Assuming that electric vehicles eventually replace fuel vehicles in the future, the final ownership of electric vehicles will logically reach 300 million or even higher, which is 38 times the current ownership.
According to the data in September 2021, the mainland vehicle-to-pile ratio is 3.05:1, but during peak hours such as holidays, the queuing and charging situation in highways, popular business districts and other places still exists, and if the number of new energy vehicles rises to 300 million in the future, the construction of charging piles will face huge challenges.
Looking at public resources such as popular business districts, residential quarters and office buildings, they are also limited. Some old neighborhoods don't even have enough parking spaces, and not every parking space has the conditions to be equipped with charging piles. So, when everyone has a new energy vehicle, how do we allocate these limited resources?
In addition, the power grid will also face huge challenges. For a simple example, there is no problem in opening one or two high-power electrical appliances at home, but when we open the fourth and fifth high-power electrical appliances, the trip is a high-probability event, and if there is no trip protection, a fire will occur.
And the huge number of new energy vehicles is like high-power electrical appliances parked in cities, communities, and commercial office buildings, they are charged at the same time with high voltage, and it is difficult to undertake with our current grid load capacity. Therefore, in the future, in addition to the construction cost of charging piles, the transformation of the power grid is also a considerable cost, and how to share these costs in a market is also a science. I think that regardless of the apportionment path, the last larger part still falls on the user.
Continuing to go deeper along the charging pile, in the commercial context of electric vehicles as the mainstream, the charging pile is now the gas station, but the business model of the charging pile is very different from the gas station.
First of all, there will be a shuffle change in the interested party, and the two barrels of oil in the fuel era will be replaced by the power grid company, the charging pile operator and the charging pile owner in the lithium battery era.
In the era of fuel vehicles, the two-barrel oil business model has a very high barrier to entry, because the supply and circulation of oil products are in the hands of these two companies, and their service outlets are already very sound - all over the country. The era of charging piles seems that every household can be installed, there are basically no barriers to entry, and the charging outlets are very flexible, and the plug board of the A00-level car connected to the home can meet the requirements of charging.
Secondly, from the perspective of business operation, two barrels of oil is also very embarrassing, further pushing the charging pile means joining the promotion of the lithium battery business route, the future innovation will be their own old business, but due to the high threshold of access to the charging pile, the result of the innovation is likely to be that the cake is smaller. If you don't push it, it will become the dwarf hum in "Who Moved My Cheese".
The more popular the cheaper the hydrogen fuel car
So, is there a new energy power technology business model that is more in line with the gas station model of two barrels of oil? The answer is yes, namely hydrogen-fueled vehicles.
First of all, the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations is 3 times that of ordinary gas stations, and the barriers to hydrogen refueling station construction are also higher (involving high-pressure storage). In this way, hydrogen refueling stations cannot be built in commercial office buildings or residential areas, and higher capital barriers have eliminated many new entrants. Secondly, the business model of hydrogen storage and transportation is also more similar to gasoline or natural gas, and it is also possible to transform a gas station into a hydrogen refueling station, at least the location can be reproduced.
Look at several important experiential elements in car consumption: cost, safety and battery life. Hydrogen fuel cars inherently surpass lithium-ion battery cars in safety and endurance. The reason why hydrogen fuel technology is being introduced slower than lithium batteries is because of the higher cost.
The pressure on costs mainly comes from two aspects: the cost of making vehicles and the cost of use (the construction cost of hydrogen refueling stations + the cost of hydrogen storage and transportation).
In terms of the cost of use, hydrogen fuel is characterized by high upfront investment, the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, hydrogen production (by-products, chemical hydrogen production, electrolysis of water to hydrogen), hydrogen storage and transportation of hydrogen early investment are high, but in the later stage with the increase of users, the cost of use will decline rapidly, and they are mutually coordinated.
Taking hydrogen production as an example, after the basic settings of hydrogen storage and transportation are perfected, unstable power plants such as photovoltaic and wind power can use excess electricity for electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen, which not only reduces the pressure on the power grid, but also reduces the curtailment rate of power plants, and can also generate benefits.
In short, hydrogen fuel is a power solution that is more popular and cheaper.
In terms of car-making costs, the contradiction is mainly in the hydrogen fuel power system, which is not a problem with large-scale production. In addition, the upstream resources involved in hydrogen fuel are mainly precious metal platinum (as a catalyst), but in recent years, with the deepening of research and development, the amount of platinum has become less and less, and the recovery of platinum is much easier than lithium.
See
Behind the implementation of the industry is inseparable from the support of capital, the changes brought by lithium battery vehicles are bound to create a batch of increments, eliminate a batch of stock, the game behind is not as simple as linear extrapolation.
As industry researchers and value investors, we observe and respect the facts, but we also need more far-reaching independent thinking; as fund managers, we need to be brave in the industry's troughs, and we need to think more about risks when the industry is optimistic, after all, the only constant is the change itself.
(Text/Fengxi Investment, Huang Jichao)