——This article is the 47th issue of the Second Master Brother Research Institute
The retention rate of automobiles is a common topic, and the joint venture owners represented by Japanese car owners like to talk about the retention rate the most.
A car can sell for a good price after a few years of driving, and there is a sense of pleasure of making a profit in an instant.
Affected by the era of fuel vehicles, in the era of new energy, people still like to talk about the retention rate.
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales reached a scale of 3 million, it is no longer a toy for a small number of people, but is widely accepted by ordinary consumers.
The retention rate is something that will definitely be noticed.
So, what is the retention rate of new energy vehicles?
In the future, what kind of development will the retention rate of new energy vehicles have?
The retention rate of new energy vehicles is still low
The low retention rate of new energy vehicles is a basic fact.
Many fuel vehicles, such as the Camry and the like, can maintain the value of nearly 90% a year, while new energy vehicles, probably only the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, which can reach this level.
According to the "January 2022 China Automobile Retention Rate Research Report" jointly released by the China Automobile Dealers Association and Jingzhen Estimate, the retention rate of new energy vehicles increased significantly in January, with the three-year retention rate of plug-in and hybrid models increasing to 60%, and the pure electric model from 42.9% to 50%.
What is this concept?
About half of the price has been reduced in three years, in the field of fuel vehicles, which is one of the "black spots" of many domestic cars.
In other words, the retention rate of new energy vehicles has risen sharply, but it is still a level that fuel owners do not look up to.
There are many reasons for the phenomenon of car building.
The first is that the current new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, are still low in recognition among consumers.
It is also insufficient endurance, battery attenuation, brake failure, charging fire, a lot of trouble, which is bound to affect consumers' perception of second-hand new energy vehicles.
To put it bluntly, buying a second-hand car is a lack of budget, since you bought a second-hand car, then you must take into account its reliability and stability.
In this regard, new energy vehicles are a natural disadvantage, which is completely incomparable with fuel vehicles that have been developed for hundreds of years and have mature technology.
Secondly, the current ownership of new energy vehicles is too low.
The scale of 3 million vehicles a year is equivalent to about one-seventh of the total sales of passenger cars, and there are many new energy models that have been on the market for less than 3 years and cannot form their own reputation.
Word of mouth is an important reference indicator for consumers when buying used cars.
In addition, the current new energy vehicle replacement speed is too fast, just the beginning of the killing into a red sea.
Half a year ago, the endurance of 500 kilometers can also be publicized, and after half a year, the endurance of mainstream models has reached 600 kilometers, although the price drop after buying is the commonality of all industrial products, but this commonality has become particularly obvious under the catalysis of the "personality" of new energy vehicles.
Plug-in hybrids are stronger than pure electric will be a long-term phenomenon
The current new energy vehicles are mainly plug-in hybrid and pure electric two, from the statistical results of major professional institutions, plug-in hybrid vehicle retention rate is generally higher than pure electric vehicle model more than 10%.
This is actually quite easy to understand.
Plug-in hybrid is a model between fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles, its car cost is much lower than pure fuel vehicles, and there is no pure electric endurance anxiety.
In other words, he is more in line with the driving habits of fuel car owners, and can enjoy the priority right of way of pure electricity.
It can be said that plug-in hybrid vehicles combine the various advantages of fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, so the acceptance is very high, and the retention rate also increases.
According to WANG Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, more than 60% of households in China do not have a car, and even if they can afford to buy a car, the proportion of pure electric vehicles as the first car is very low.
There is no doubt that the more people who are willing to buy it, the more used cars will be worth it.
Wang Chuanfu said that in the next few years, plug-in hybrid models will have broad room for development.
Therefore, we judge that the retention rate of plug-in and hybrid models is higher than that of pure electric vehicles, which will be a long-term phenomenon.
The retention rate of new energy vehicles will not reach the level of fuel vehicles
So, with the popularity of new energy vehicles and higher acceptance, will its retention rate rise sharply or even reach the level of fuel vehicles?
In our view, this possibility is not very high.
Although new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles are both cars, they are too different, similar to feature phones and smart phones.
First of all, it is worth noting that within the foreseeable range, the energy attenuation of the power battery is a technically unsolvable problem.
The power battery accounts for about 40% of the cost of a new energy vehicle, which determines that its retention rate cannot reach the level of fuel vehicles.
Secondly, the traditional fuel vehicle is essentially a means of travel.
The future form of new energy vehicles is electronic products with travel functions, and the car will come with a large number of electronic components and intelligent systems, and the speed of replacement of these parts is very fast, which also determines that they do not have any value preservation function.
Therefore, we believe that the retention rate will still be an important reference index for consumers when purchasing new energy vehicles, but this important degree is far from being comparable to the era of fuel vehicles, which is determined by the industrial characteristics of new energy vehicles and has nothing to do with personal preferences.
Conclusion: New energy vehicles are a new product form that is enough to reconstruct the entire automotive industry, and the evaluation system related to it will also be rewritten. Now people buy fuel vehicles, will think about how much money can be sold in a few years, maybe after the popularity of electric vehicles, the mainstream thinking will become early to buy early and enjoy early, what do you think?