laitimes

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

In the past few years, on the pure electric track, the overtaking of its own brand corners has achieved initial results.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

According to the data of the "2021 New Energy Passenger Vehicle White Paper", in 2021, independent brands will occupy more than 70% of the new energy market, and 9 of the top 10 new energy brands will be independent brands (the only overseas brand is Tesla).

However, in the composition of new energy vehicles, the share of plug-in hybrid PHEV has only hovered around 20% for a long time, while in the field of energy-saving vehicle HEV hybrid, the Japanese "two fields" have long occupied more than 90% of the share. In the process of overtaking in the corner, it seems that the independent brand has been "walking on one leg".

However, in 2022, the hybrid models of independent brands are listed in groups, and their technical content is not inferior to that of "two fields", and the pattern of hybrid + pure electric "two legs" jointly bending overtaking is taking shape.

01

The hybrid market has changed, and the independent brands have collectively counterattacked

Hybrid vehicles are much more complex than pure electricity in terms of structural design and control difficulty, and the industry is full of various "black words", such as series, parallel, mixed, power shunting, P0, P1, P2, P2.5, P4 motor and other noun concepts, combined together like a book.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The TANG DM of the DM 2.0 and 3.0 eras is completely performance-oriented

In order to facilitate understanding, here is aside those pure pursuit of performance hybrids, such as Ferrari SF90, BYD Tang DM, personally to provide you with a simple and effective judgment of whether the hybrid technology of car companies is advanced standards - whether there is a transmission in the traditional sense. What needs to be reminded here is that some car companies mark E-CVT under the gearbox of their own model configuration table, which actually has nothing to do with the traditional CVT gearbox.

The absence of a traditional gearbox means that car companies are not only "patching" on the traditional power, but through the redesign, they can maximize the advantages of "electricity" in the hybrid, and let the engine work in the high efficiency range for most of the time.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The Changan iDD Hybrid still uses a simple P2 architecture, but uses a high-power motor and a large battery pack

From this point of view, the P2 hybrid represented by the German system is not an advanced hybrid system, at present, only Changan iDD hybrid is still following this structure in the independent brand, and the rest of the independent brands have launched more energy-saving and efficient hybrids, of course, there is no transmission in the traditional sense, here they are divided into 3 categories:

Augmentation: Ideal, Lantu, Nissan e-Power, Aotu AITO

Planetary gear power shunt type: Toyota THS, Geely Zhiqing Hi · X, GAC Trumpchi Julang power

Fixed shaft hybrid: Honda i-MMD, BYD DM-i, Great Wall Lemon DHT, Chery Kunpeng DHT

First of all, let's talk about the extender, which is also the most controversial hybrid mode at present, after all, this "power generation with oil, and then use electricity to drive" model does not look very smart, and some people even call the extender "take off the pants and fart".

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The efficient working range of the internal combustion engine is very narrow, and only in the specific speed and torque output range can it reach more than 35%.

It is true that the energy conversion path of the extender hybrid is long, from the engine - generator - motor drive, each step will inevitably have some energy loss, but in reality, the engine of the traditional fuel vehicle will rarely work in the high efficiency range, even if the gear of the current gearbox has come to 10 AT, but the efficiency of most of the engine in most road conditions is less than 30%, if you stop and go in the city, then the probability of thermal efficiency is less than 20%.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

In a typical motor efficiency MAP diagram, it is easy for a motor to achieve an efficiency of 90%.

The range extender hybrid can make the engine most of the time the work efficiency is more than 30%, while the efficiency of the motor more than 90% easy, even if the deduction of about 10% of the energy loss in the power generation process, the range extender hybrid can still save a lot of fuel than the traditional fuel vehicle, but this is based on the analysis of comprehensive road conditions, if it is running at high speed, the range increase may be more fuel-intensive.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

New forces such as Ideal, Lantu, and Aotu have all adopted the power of extended range

In general, the extender is a relatively simple technology, the lower limit is higher but the upper limit is lower, the hybrid path is relatively friendly for the "new players" who lack technical accumulation, and the future development potential is still very large.

The two types to be introduced below are hybrids that are technically difficult and complex in structure, but have a high upper limit.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The core component of the Toyota THS, the planetary frame power shunt device

The first is the famous Toyota THS, the core of which is a power shunting device composed of planetary gear structure, the core of which is that the power of the engine can be diverted to two parts, one part of which is generated by the M1 motor (corresponding to the sun wheel in the center), while the remaining power is used to drive the outer ring gear through the reducer to drive the wheel, according to the battery SOC, vehicle speed and power requirements to change the proportion of the two.

In this way, the engine can work in the high efficiency range as much as possible while the power torque is not wasted, and then with a high thermal efficiency engine, the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction is achieved.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

GAC Trumpchi GS8 Hybrid Edition is equipped with Toyota THS Hybrid System

Back to the independent brand, GAC Trumpchi Moment Wave needless to say, "Toyota hands-on" technology, but in the GS8 hybrid version with a stronger power 2.0 T engine, in terms of power performance than the same level of Toyota Highlander is much higher.

And Geely's hybrid road is more tortuous and interesting, mainly divided into two roads, one is developed with Volvo, made 48 V light mix and P2.5 plug mix two schemes, of which P2.5 scheme is an upgrade to the P2 structure, these two European flavor of the hybrid amplifier in the previous few years is OK, now it is definitely backward; the other way is curve learning Toyota. In 2014, Geely and Corun established a CHS joint venture company (Geely Holdings), and this Corun established a joint venture battery company with Toyota in 2013 to produce batteries for Toyota THS, because of this background, Corun obtained relevant technical information about Toyota THS.

Therefore, Geely also mastered Toyota's THS-related technology, and after several years of research, there is the Geely Zhiqing Hi · X hybrid, and compared to Toyota's single-row planetary frame, Geely cleverly formed a three-speed dual-clutch transmission through a double-row planetary frame, of course, its structure is very different from the traditional dual-clutch transmission, and the result is to further improve the efficiency and dynamic performance of this hybrid system.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Star-over L hybrid, it is worth looking forward to

Here is a simple comparison of Geely Star-Vietnam L Hybrid and Toyota RAV4 dual-engine two-wheel drive version, in the case of size and weight are larger than raV4, the comprehensive fuel consumption given by the official Star-Vietnam L is 4.3 L/100 km, the acceleration of 100 kilometers is 7.9 seconds, compared with raV4 is 4.7 L/100 km, and the measured acceleration is more than 8 seconds. It can be said that Geely's set of hybrids is "blue out of blue and better than blue", of course, its reliability remains to be seen.

It can be said that IT ISI Trumpchi and Geely Automobile take a power shunt mode similar to Toyota THS, and the fixed-axis hybrid structure represented by BYD DM-i and Honda i-MMD has a broader space.

In fact, the planetary frame power shunt hybrid represented by the mentioned THS can also be classified into the category of hybridization, so the following fixed-axis hybrid is used to distinguish. This hybrid mode is simply a range extender + engine direct drive.

We know that the most fuel-efficient range of traditional fuel vehicles is about 70-120 km/h of the middle and high-speed road conditions, and electric vehicles in this range just happen to be relatively weak chicken, if the low-speed electricity, high-speed oil to drive, it is undoubtedly the most efficient and most fuel-efficient, making up for the traditional fuel vehicle and the range of power respective shortcomings.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Honda i-MMD system engine, green is the generator, blue is the drive motor

For example, BYD DM-i and Honda's i-MMD hybrid can use extenders to play the advantages of electric drive at low and medium speeds, and can choose to intervene in direct drive at a speed of about 70 km/h.

The Great Wall Lemon DHT Hybrid also added a gear on this basis, the engine can be directly driven in two gears, so that the engine can intervene in the direct drive at lower speeds (such as 40 km/h), which can theoretically improve the efficiency a little.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Weipai CEO said that the Great Wall Lemon DHT hybrid technology is the best new energy technology in the world

In this regard, the CEO of Wei Pai also shouted out the bold words of technology "hanging Wei Xiaoli", in fact, there is nothing wrong with it in general. But it is really more difficult than technology, more complex than structure and system control, the above-mentioned Geely Zhiqing Hi · X and the Chery Kunpeng DHT we'll talk about below may be the "ceiling" of the hybrid.

The first fully forward self-developed engine and gearbox in China are from Chery's hand, and in the field of hybridization, hundreds of Chery patents in the field of hybrid can be found in the State Intellectual Property Office, and finally Chery Kunpeng DHT chose a set of solutions with far more complexity than Honda and BYD.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Bydie DM-i system explosion map

The basic structure of the Honda i-MMD, BYD DM-i and Great Wall Lemon DHT mentioned above is an engine, a GM power generation motor, a TM drive motor and a direct drive clutch in one to two gears, of which the GM and TM motors are not substituted for each other, so the power of the two motors must be relatively large, but the control logic is relatively simple.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Chery Kunpeng DHT system explosion diagram, the motor size is very small

Chery Kunpeng DHT adopts P2 + P2.5 dual motor three-clutch scheme, both motors can act as generators /drive motors at the same time, the patent describes a total of 29 working conditions (of course, not necessarily all used), optical pure electric mode has 3 kinds of a total of 9 gears. Its advantage is that there are many modes, more gears, high upper limit, and the two motors do not need to get so much power, so we can see that the maximum power of the two motors on the Chery Tiggo 8 e+ is 70 kW and 55 kW, compared with the two motors of Honda and BYD, the maximum is above 130 kW.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The first Tiggo 8 PLUS e+ equipped with Chery Kunpeng DHT hybrid

Overall, after years of dedicated research and development, the hybrid system of the independent brand has not lost the "two fields" in terms of technology, and the pattern of the hybrid market will usher in a sudden change.

02

Avoid being "stuck in the neck", the serendipity of the hybrid

When it comes to fuel vehicles, everyone first pays attention to the engine, but those familiar with the mainland automobile industry are clear that the biggest shortcoming of independent brands lies in the gearbox.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Mitsubishi 4G63 series engine, many independent brands in the early days relied on it

More than a decade ago, some people jokingly called "a Mitsubishi 4G63 engine feeds half of the independent brands", Haval H6, BYD F3, Chery Tiggo have used this "grandma-class" engine, but now the mainstream independent brands have developed their own signature engines, such as the Chery Kunpeng 2.0T engine, fuel consumption and power has surpassed the BBA mainstream model of the 2.0T high-power engine; Great Wall launched a 3.0T V6 engine mounted on the tank 500, the power far exceeds the same level of off-road vehicles. There is also the 1.5/2.0 T engine jointly developed by Geely and Volvo, which absorbs the essence of the Volvo Drive-E series; of course, Changan's Blue Whale series engine...

Overall, the engine of its own brand in the field of household cars is no longer a short board or even an advantage, but there is also a major lifeline on traditional fuel vehicles - the gearbox.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Great Wall 9-speed wet dual-clutch, autonomous ceiling-level gearbox too

In the past few years, independent brands have also realized the shortcomings of the gearbox and accelerated their catch-up, so a number of good gearbox products have also been born, such as the 7DCT of Qingshan Industry, the 7DCT jointly developed by Geely and Volvo, the CVT of Chery Wanliyang, and the 9DCT developed by the Great Wall, but in the field of AT gearboxes, independent brands have not yet had a product that makes consumers really satisfied.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The ZF 8 AT transmission, the best AT transmission in the hearts of many

If the product wants to go to the high-end, the AT transmission is a point that is difficult to bypass, and the ZF 8 AT on the BMW, the 9 AT of Mercedes-Benz, and the 10 AT of GM are all their own signboards, and they are also one of the key points to obtain a premium.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Aisin 6 AT transmission, the most purchased AT gearbox for domestic cars

As mentioned above, a good hybrid system does not require a gearbox in the traditional sense, and the hybrid technology of Toyota, Honda, BYD, Chery, Great Wall and other brands is the same. This has helped independent brands bypass the biggest shortcomings, eliminating the need for large purchases from brands such as Aisin, ZF, Getrag and other brands (and sometimes avoiding being stuck because the other party is out of stock or restricted supply).

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

BYD Qin PLUS DM-i, recently raised the price twice but the price is still very good

So in the hybrid era, the cost performance of independent brands will be more prominent, the most obvious is BYD's DM-i series, Qin PLUS DM-i starting price is only 111,800 yuan, which is still a PHEV model with a battery pack, still cheaper than Toyota Corolla Dual Engine, Honda Lingpai Hybrid HEV without large batteries of twenty or thirty thousand yuan.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The hybrid of the joint venture brand is really not cost-effective

This is especially true in the most mainstream compact SUVs, the price of BYD Song PLUS DM-i is 15.28-20.58 million yuan, the price of Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS e+ is 15.18-16.58 million yuan (no four-wheel drive), and the price of Honda CR-V plug-in hybrid (no four-wheel drive) and Toyota RAV4 plug-in hybrid has come to 27.38-29.98 million yuan and 248.8-29.68 million yuan, and the plug-in hybrid of the compact SUV "Two Fields" is more expensive than that of the independent brand About 100,000.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Quattro four-wheel drive is the biggest selling point of Audi in the eyes of many people

In addition, there is a point that is easy to be ignored, and the hybrid also happens to avoid another major shortcoming of the independent brand - four-wheel drive. In the traditional fuel vehicle, "four-wheel drive" is also a big selling point and premium point, such as Audi's quattro, Acura's SH-AWD, BMW's xDrive, etc., the choice of four-wheel drive has to add tens of thousands of dollars, and the independent brand of four-wheel drive is almost all purchased from Bosch and BorgWarner, which is more "stuck neck" than the gearbox.

On pure electricity or hybrid, it is not too easy to add an "electric four-wheel drive", just add a rear motor on the rear axle. BYD's Song PLUS DM-i has launched a four-wheel drive version, 100 kilometers of acceleration only takes 5.9 seconds, Chery, Great Wall, Geely and other brands of hybrid system in the planning has long had a four-wheel drive version, the next will be landed one by one.

03

Is hybrid really just a "transition technology"?

The above said that the hybridization of independent brands will usher in a wave of explosion in 2022, and the cost performance is very prominent, but the voice of "hybridization is only a transition technology" has been heard endlessly, and many scholars have proposed that "the future is the world of pure electricity or hydrogen energy, rather than spending a lot of effort to engage in hybrid this transitional technology, it is better to directly step in place."

From the perspective of the ultimate energy source of the future, we will eventually completely get rid of fossil fuels, get rid of the internal combustion engine, but how long will this process take? 10 years? 20 years? Or 30 years or more?

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

By 2035, 100% of new hybrid vehicles will be found in conventional energy passenger cars

In 2020, under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and organized by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, more than 1,000 experts in the whole industry have revised and compiled the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" for one and a half years, proposing: by 2025, hybrid new vehicles will account for more than 50% of traditional energy passenger cars; by 2035, the average fuel consumption of new traditional energy passenger cars will reach 4.0 L/100 km (WLTC conditions), and 100% hybrid. Among them, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles each account for 50%.

That is to say, by 2035, according to the planning, the share of HEV strong hybrid will account for half, and some of the new energy vehicles will be PHEV models, and the internal combustion engine will still be "never a slave" more than a decade later.

At the same time, this is not only the country's guidance, behind which there are relevant policies to ensure the landing - subsidies and double points, the current government subsidies are nearing the end, double points will become the leading force in the future.

Double points are divided into CAFC (enterprise average fuel consumption) points and NEV (new energy vehicle) points, the former is mainly to assess whether the fuel consumption of fuel vehicles sold by car companies has reached the standard, if the points are negative, you have to buy points from those new energy vehicle companies, the price of a point in 2020 is about 1,200 yuan, and it will rise to 3,000 yuan / point at the beginning of 2021. The data shows that in 2021, Tesla made $1.465 billion worldwide by selling charcoal points.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, selling cars does not make money, selling points to make money

Last year, Professor Masayoshi Yamamoto of Nagoya University in Japan and others dismantled the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV from China, and finally concluded that the material cost of this electric vehicle that sold for 28,800 yuan reached 26,900 yuan, and if you count the cost of research and development, transportation, and channels, it will definitely lose money, but if you count the benefits of selling points (internal transactions give fuel consumption to saeqi-GM, etc.), it is easy to understand.

With the further tightening of the 2021-2025 double credit policy, it is becoming more and more difficult for traditional enterprises to meet the double credit:

If the ratio of the actual value of the average fuel consumption of the passenger car enterprise (only the traditional energy passenger car is accounted for) to the standard value is higher than 123%, the positive integral carry-over of the new energy vehicle generated by the passenger car enterprise in the current year is not allowed;

The fuel consumption test method was switched from NEDC to a more stringent WLTC. For the same model, the WLTC consumes 10% more fuel than the NEDC;

The calculation method of the target value of fuel consumption has been changed, and the target value has been reduced by 6.5%-10% under the new calculation method;

The highest value of new energy bicycle points decreased, and the maximum number of pure electric/plug-in hybrid bicycle points in 21-23 years dropped from the previous 5 points and 2 points to 3.4 points and 1.6 points, and it is expected that the probability of 24-25 years will be further reduced.

Interpretation, in the future, in addition to the development of new energy vehicles, car companies are more stringent in the traditional fuel planning "fuel consumption reduction", first of all, if the fuel vehicle exceeds the standard by more than 23%, their own new energy points cannot be transferred, and the new energy credits will increase in price. In addition, the calculation of fuel consumption switches to a more stringent WLTP cycle, while lowering the fuel consumption target value, which requires car companies to further reduce fuel consumption by more than 15%.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Nissan's New Qijun, another model that failed on the three-cylinder

At present, the fuel consumption reduction of traditional fuel vehicles has come to an end, the combination of small displacement turbo + double clutch has been regarded as the optimal solution at present, 1.5 L displacement is already the final "stubborn", and then reduce the displacement everyone can only open K-Car. And if you insist on implementing the three-cylinder engine, countless tragic cases are already in front, Buick Yinglang, Ford Focus slipped from the peak, and now have to change back to the four-cylinder, Nissan New Qijun full series of 1.5 T three-cylinder now only about 2,000 vehicles per month.

Then the conclusion is already very clear, the future will be pure electricity and hybrid go hand in hand, the importance of hybrid is not inferior to pure electricity, and the urgency of the current layout of hybrid is even higher.

Since the second half of 2021, raw materials have been a price a day, for example, the price of "lithium carbonate" in 2021 is still about 50,000 tons, this year is basically 500,000 tons of price, and then superimposed on the impact of subsidies, the price increase has become the main theme of electric vehicles, Tesla is more than twice in five days, and now the starting price of the Model 3 rear-drive version has reached 279,900 yuan, which is 44,000 yuan more directly than in the second half of 2021.

In the face of the price increase of raw materials, the cost pressure gap for different price models is not large, for more than 250,000 electric vehicles, a price increase of 30,000 yuan may be a price increase of 10%, but for consumers in the range of 8-200,000 who are more just in need, a direct price increase of 20% becomes difficult to accept.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

There is no fixed parking space, the property is blocked, and the home pile is a luxury

At the same time, problems such as pure electric vehicle mileage anxiety, lack of home pile filling conditions, and poor user experience in the north are difficult to solve in a short period of time, and the growth potential of hybrid in the next few years is significantly greater than that of pure electricity.

So hybrid is not a transitional technology at all, and will still play a pivotal role in the next two or three decades, and if you have to pull the timeline to more than 50 years, it can only be said that "in the long run, we will all die".

04

Ignoring the hybrid, the masses have begun to pay the price

In 2018, former BMW Technical Director Herbert Diess officially became Volkswagen CEO and gambled on the "ALL IN Pure Electric" strategy, launching "the largest electric vehicle offensive in history": it plans to launch about 70 new electric models worldwide by 2028 and deliver 22 million pure electric vehicles worldwide, more than half of which will come from the Chinese market.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Dies, a key figure in leading Volkswagen ALL IN pure electric

More than 3 years later, Volkswagen's report card is not very good: in 2018, the Volkswagen Group sold 10.83 million vehicles worldwide, and only 8.88 million vehicles remained in 2021, a decline of 18.0%, which is significantly higher than the global market's 15.2% decline in 2021 relative to 2018, while Volkswagen's old rival Toyota, which sold 10.58 million units in 2018, slightly behind Volkswagen, and by 2021, global sales were 10.5 million units, with almost no decline. It has begun to clearly lead the public.

Volkswagen is being overtaken by Toyota at a rapid pace, and we can get a glimpse of Volkswagen's most important European and Chinese markets.

First of all, in the European market, volkswagen group passenger car sales in Europe in 2018 were 3.73 million units, and in 2021 it fell to 3.16 million units, although this performance is already good for the European market (new car sales in Europe have declined significantly in recent years), but as a comparison, Toyota Group's sales in Europe in 2018 were 760,000 units, rising to 778,000 units in 2021.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

The Toyota Prius sold well in Europe

If you look at the Volkswagen brand and the Toyota brand alone, the change will be more obvious, in 2018 the Volkswagen brand sold 1.75 million vehicles in Europe, with a market share of 11.2%, and in 2021, the Volkswagen brand sold 1.274 million vehicles in Europe, and the share fell to 10.6%. Toyota brand sales in Europe in 2018 was 713,000 units, the market share is only 4.6%, by 2021 Toyota brand sales in Europe is still 706,000 units, the share of 6.0%.

In this process, Volkswagen's pure electric vehicles can not be described as powerless, in 2021 Volkswagen brand electric vehicles sold 112,000 units in Europe, beating Tesla to the top of the European electric vehicle brand sales championship. Toyota, on the other hand, does not sell much electric vehicles in Europe. However, the share of the base camp has been continuously narrowed by Toyota, because of the lack of Volkswagen hybrid.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

2021 9.1% of pure electricity and 19.6% share of HEV in the European market

According to the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), the HEV hybrid market is more than twice that of pure electric BEVs, while Volkswagen has almost zero action in this area.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Volkswagen falls, Toyota is full?

Looking at the domestic market, Volkswagen's sales in China plummeted from 3.1 million units in 2018 to 2.405 million units in 2021, a drop of 22.4%, while Honda and Toyota's sales in 2021 increased by 6.6% and 26.3% respectively compared with 2018.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Volkswagen ID. The sales volume of the series in China is not ideal

The reason why Volkswagen fell so fast, on the one hand, is that the pure electricity of Volkswagen 'ALL IN' in the Chinese market has not performed as expected, and the Volkswagen ID in 2021 is less than expected. The series has delivered a total of 70,625 vehicles in China, which is not only far lower than Tesla, but also lower than new forces such as "Wei Xiaoli".

Although the ID. The series has a good product force, but in the domestic extremely "inner-rolled" electric vehicle market, it is somewhat overwhelmed in the face of more cost-effective independent brand products, such as ID. 3 The domestic pricing is 15.99-17.93 million yuan, this pricing strategy is no problem in Europe, but the BYD dolphins next door only sell 10.28-13.08 million yuan.

Pure electricity in terms of insufficient increment, the lack of hybrid may be a greater hidden danger, data show that in 2021, the domestic HEV energy-saving passenger car sales of 586,000 units, an increase of 43% year-on-year, HEV and PHEV hybrid market in the country is rapidly exploding, and the lack of advanced hybrid technology of the public may be further caught up by Japanese and independent brands in the next few years or even surpassed.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

In May 2021, BYD joined the Million New Energy Club

A historic scene also occurred in February 2022, with BYD selling 91,078 vehicles that month, SAIC Volkswagen with 90,604 units, and BYD surpassing one of the "North and South Volkswagen" for the first time. At the same time, it is understood that BYD has accumulated 400,000 orders in its hands and is still increasing rapidly, of which DM-i hybrid accounts for three-quarters, if BYD's monthly production capacity can be increased to more than 200,000 vehicles / month, a company beyond the sum of "north and south Volkswagen" is not a dream.

Of course, this is not to say that Dis's "ALL IN pure electricity" strategy is completely wrong, Volkswagen still has a very obvious advantage in the field of pure electricity compared to Toyota, Honda and other brands, but for a company of Volkswagen's size, it is absolutely not biased. The new forces can live well by focusing on only one route, Volkswagen has hundreds of thousands of employees and dozens of factories around the world and a large dealer system, if it continues to lie flat in terms of "hybridization", continue to use the P2 architecture and 48 V light mix that is difficult to cope with the WLTP fuel consumption test, the pressure of double integration will only increase, and the future can only face the dilemma of slow growth of pure electricity, while the fuel vehicle market that occupies the largest part of the rapid decline.

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

BMW i7 trailer, BMW, Mercedes-Benz in the electrification is also very aggressive

At the same time, this is not only the dilemma of Volkswagen, but the dilemma of the entire European car, BMW, Mercedes-Benz in the past few years because of the global luxury car market surge has been very moist, the future if it can not be quickly broken through in the field of pure electricity, the crown of a century-old luxury brand will also fall.

Of course, the old saying that "people have no far-reaching worries, there must be near-term worries", although Japanese cars have achieved good results in temporary hybridization, but in the future, none of the classes that should be made up on pure electricity will fall behind.

In the past two years, everyone has deeply felt that we are in the automotive industry in a century of unprecedented changes, in 2022 we will also see the collective rise of independent brands in the field of hybrid, to achieve overseas brands cornering overtaking has pressed the acceleration button.

Author: Wu Gangxing

Edit: Reinhardt

These are also worth reading

Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity
Independent brand overtaking in curves, the importance of hybrid is no less than pure electricity

Read on