A few days ago, a survey announced the ranking of the retention rate of electric vehicles in 2021.
They are evaluated and forecasted based on the latest vehicle residual value impact factor algorithm model, and then corrected and calibrated in combination with market research, and are generally relatively close to the real situation.
Tesla Model Y and Model 3 won the first place in the retention rate of pure electric SUVs and cars respectively, which is also deserved.
But in general, the retention rate of electric vehicles is indeed not optimistic, the overall retention rate of 1 year of car age does not exceed 80%, and the gap with the same level of fuel vehicles is still relatively large.
What are the secrets behind these data? Let the kung fu car take everyone to see it together.
Tesla's value preservation is due to "price increases", what about Xiaopeng and BYD?
As mentioned earlier, Tesla's high retention rate should be expected, after all, this brand still has an aura in the hearts of many Chinese. But the reason why it can hold the top spot in the two fields of cars and SUVs is mainly because of its recent "price increase".
Taking Model Y as an example, the 2021 standard endurance after-drive version of model Y guidance price is 291,800 yuan, and the subsidy at that time was still relatively large, and the price after the subsidy was actually 276,000 yuan. The price of the 2022 Model Y rose by 10,000 yuan to 301,800 yuan, while more than 300,000 electric vehicles do not enjoy subsidies, which is equivalent to more than 20,000 expensive. The new Model Y does not have a qualitative improvement, although the endurance has increased by 20km, but the acceleration performance is reduced, and the overall cost performance is indeed reduced.
New cars are more expensive than old cars, and the retention rate will naturally go up. In fact, the model 3 has also increased in price, but the increase is not as good as model Y, and it is still within the subsidy line of 300,000, so its retention rate is not as prominent as model Y, only 72.84%. Of course, recently it is not only Tesla's price increase, electric vehicles are actually a general increase, but Tesla is more prominent in this regard.
Compared with Tesla's "price increase" campaign, Xiaopeng and BYD are another situation, that is, both of them have favorable terms for the first owner. For example, Xiaopeng has a lifetime free charging service for the first car owner, which was previously a free charging quota of 3,000 kWh of electricity per year, which began to shrink in August last year and became a gift of 1,000 kWh of electricity, but in any case, this offer is still quite impressive.
BYD also has similar clauses, they provide a lifetime warranty of the three-electric system, but the policy is given as a gift to the first owner, once the vehicle changes owners, it will become a 6-year 150,000-kilometer vehicle warranty.
Therefore, for the owners of Xiaopeng and BYD, the first owner is of course more happy, because there is indeed a better guarantee. The second owner was not so happy.
Power exchange is a misplaced competition, the official used car business is the most plus?
At present, there are only three SUVs on sale, and the retention rate of NIO is also quite good, ES6 and EC6 rank second and third respectively in the retention rate of electric SUVs, which is actually reasonable, because NIO is the only car company in the same level that mainly promotes the power exchange business.
A while ago, Weilai released data that their 800th substation has been put online, and will complete the layout of 1300+ substations this year, covering most cities and high-speeds. When it comes to changing the power, many people's first impression is that charging is more convenient, after all, the power exchange can be completed in as long as 3 minutes, which is comparable to refueling.
In fact, the advantages of power exchange are not only so, but also the improvement of the retention rate of electric vehicles. Because the power battery itself is the core part of the electric vehicle, and its technological progress is very fast. Due to the existence of the power exchange business, the current Niolai Automobile can be replaced with a more advanced power battery in the future, and it can also flexibly choose short-term upgrades. For example, if users want to go back to their hometown during the Spring Festival, they can choose to temporarily switch to a power battery with a larger capacity, which undoubtedly makes it more convenient to use electricity.
In addition, WEILAI is also promoting the separation of vehicles and electricity. That is, when the user buys a car, he can not buy a battery, but choose to rent a battery, so that the price of the car is naturally reduced. The price of the car has fallen, and the power battery that affects the most depreciation has been stripped away, and the retention rate will naturally rise.
In addition to power exchanges, WEI HAS also launched an official used car business. It is equivalent to the official opening up the circulation of second-hand cars, which forms a closed loop in business. The launch of the second-hand car business has actually stabilized the price system of new cars to a large extent, after all, for car owners, they can also be sold to the official.
In fact, Xiaopeng also launched an official second-hand car platform at the end of last year, and they are more accurate, recording vehicle data through an intelligent evaluation system and generating vehicle condition reports. In this way, the car condition becomes clearer and more transparent, and users who buy officially certified used cars can also see at a glance. And Xiaopeng will also provide very preferential services for officially certified second-hand cars, and the user rights and interests are the same as new cars, which will also help improve its retention rate.
In fact, for today's electric vehicles, selling second-hand is indeed a troublesome thing. Consumers are not at ease to buy second-hand cars, and car dealers are afraid of smashing their hands when they receive cars. In the final analysis, the market ownership is not large enough, and no norms have been formed. Otherwise, everyone can spend 240,000 yuan to buy a model Y for a year, which is still quite fragrant, but it is difficult to see such a car on the market. When a car dealer goes to collect such a car, his heart is bottomless. In this case, it is undoubtedly a good thing that the official can "support the bottom".
With the continuous expansion of the scale of the follow-up electric vehicle market, it will naturally gradually become standardized and transparent.
Don't just look at the retention rate, but calculate the economic account
Many people who sing about the decline of electric vehicles like to talk about the retention rate. For example, A spent 150,000 yuan to buy an electric car, drove for three years and 100,000 kilometers and only sold 80,000 yuan, B also spent 150,000 yuan to buy a fuel car, also drove so much, and finally sold 100,000 yuan. Then conclude that electric cars are stupid for who buys them.
But the key to the problem is, the same 150,000 yuan electric vehicle and fuel vehicle, the configuration is the same? At least now, the same level of electric vehicles are basically much higher than fuel vehicles, on the extra configuration, fuel vehicles also to be installed, at least to spend an extra ten or twenty thousand.
This is not to mention for the time being, the cost of 100,000 kilometers of car, the two are also very different. The first is the cost of fuel, electricity, fuel vehicles 100,000 kilometers, at the current oil price, almost 50,000 yuan is wanted. If the city runs more than half of it, and you have to add 95# gasoline, the cost may be even higher. The electricity cost is much lower, 150,000-level electric vehicles, even if you do not consider the trough tariff charged at night, the electricity bill of one kilometer will not exceed 1 cent, that is to say, the total electricity cost of 100,000 kilometers will be within 10,000 yuan.
There is also a maintenance cost, electric vehicles do not have engines, instead of driving motors. The structure of the motor is much simpler than the engine, the number of parts is only a quarter of the engine, and there is no combustion inside, no injection of oil and air, and the reliability is quite good. Electric vehicles have also eliminated multi-speed gearboxes and replaced them with single-speed gearboxes, which have only one ON/OFF function and are basically impossible to break.
The three major pieces killed two large pieces, so the maintenance cost of electric vehicles is actually much lower than that of fuel vehicles. Before a friend counted the maintenance of his electric vehicle, 100,000 kilometers on the change of air conditioning filter 9 times, replaced 2 times brake fluid, 1 time coolant, 1 time gear oil, added more times glass water, the rest of the project is basically to check the circuit or something. The cumulative maintenance cost of his last 100,000 kilometers is only less than 3,000 yuan, while the same mileage of the same level of fuel vehicles, the maintenance cost is basically more than 10,000 yuan.
Therefore, it is true that the retention rate of fuel vehicles is higher than that of electric vehicles at this stage, but if the economic account is really calculated, it is really difficult to say who is more cost-effective. If the same use is more than 10 years, then it is estimated that the two are not worth much, and the gap can be completely ignored.
Wisdom drives public opinion
The current retention rate of electric vehicles is indeed not high, which is mainly due to the lack of market capacity and the characteristics of electric vehicles themselves. However, with the gradual popularization of electric vehicles and the official business of second-hand electric vehicles, it is expected that this situation will gradually improve.
In addition, if you talk about it from the perspective of using a car, although the retention rate of electric vehicles is not as good as that of fuel vehicles, the cost of using the car is lower, and the maintenance cost is also greatly reduced, which is still much more cost-effective than the fuel vehicle in general.
Therefore, don't be frightened by the retention rate, this problem will gradually improve, and if the whole life cycle is calculated, electric vehicles may have more advantages.