When evaluating the penetration of New Energy Vehicles in China, it is necessary to pay attention to the areas in first-tier cities, of which Shanghai is a city that is better combined with policies and markets, and it is pursued for the new energy industry, which deserves our attention and consideration. Especially to let Tesla in, the pros and cons do need to be a plate:
● The output value of new energy vehicles in Shanghai in 2021 exceeded 160 billion yuan, an increase of 200% year-on-year; the output reached 550,000 units, an increase of 170% year-on-year. Shanghai has accumulated more than 670,000 vehicles. Shanghai's goal is to exceed 350 billion yuan in automobile output and more than 1.2 million vehicles by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and to build a charging network to meet the charging needs of more than 1.25 million electric vehicles.
● In 2021, the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory delivered a total of 484,130 vehicles, an increase of 235% year-on-year, accounting for 51.7% of Tesla's annual total global deliveries, and Tesla's Shanghai factory (Lingang New Area) contributed more than 150 billion yuan in output value, accounting for 93.75% of Shanghai.
Part 1
The ceiling of Shanghai's penetration rate
I got the 2022 Shanghai card data, and I can see that shanghai's control over the overall number of cards in 2022 is still very obvious: the cumulative number of cards in January-December is 622,841, an increase of 11.79% year-on-year. Among them, the number of new energy vehicles on the list is 243,100 units, and the average new energy penetration rate in 2021 is 38.93%, an increase of 16.8% over 22.25% in 2020.
Remarks: In the same period, the number of imported vehicles was 57,000 units, 4.69% year-on-year, the number of other cars was 115,000 units, down -21.44% year-on-year, and the number of SUVs was 169,000 units, down -15.35% year-on-year.
Figure 1:Penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai (statistical caliber of the license)
The whole year of 2021 is not as volatile as before, but the overall figure is the highest at 31,055 units in December. In 2022, the opening red was 19455 units, of which 12562 units were pure electricity and 6893 units were plugged in, which was a year-on-year decline.
Figure 2.Shanghai new energy vehicle licensing data in 2021
My understanding is that after a smooth 2020, a breakthrough in 2021, and a new energy vehicle market in Shanghai in 2022 will be relatively more stable, I would like to take a closer look at the way we interpret the data in Shanghai in January.
Figure 3.Penetration rate in January 2022
Part 2
Shanghai's new energy in-depth interpretation in January
Overall, traditional automobile companies in the fuel vehicles, mainly Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Buick and Audi ranked in the top five. The new energy vehicle data in January is still a little worse than the scale of traditional vehicles.
Figure 4: Data analysis in January in Shanghai
Judging from the data of new energy, BYD has become the top spot in Shanghai, occupying the first position in the field of plug-in hybrid and pure electric.
Figure 5: Overview of Shanghai's new energy data in January
If you analyze the logic, Shanghai's vehicles have entered the main section of more than 100,000 (here fuel vehicles have discount elements), in the 100,000-150,000 types, pure electric vehicles do not provide a more suitable range. The 150,000-200,000 and 250,000-350,000 sections are currently the most important price segments for new energy vehicles in Shanghai.
Figure 6: Shanghai Price Band in January
The January data can also be seen that under the advantage of licensing, electric vehicles have been able to stand. Since after 2023, plug-in hybrids have no license, the penetration rate of pure electric in the high-end will be further expanded.
Figure 7:Shanghai january comparison grading section
Shanghai's model situation, I have also done some collation, for reference. In terms of a single model, the Model Y is still in the forefront.
Figure 8: The situation of the main new energy models in Shanghai in January
Summary: My personal judgment is that the situation in Shanghai may be a more forward-looking projection of the development of New Energy Vehicles in China, which does represent how the entire new energy vehicle should go to PK with fuel vehicles in the absence of small car sweeping points. And according to Shanghai's radical plan for the new energy automobile industry, if Tesla does not continue to invest in the second phase, the output of Volkswagen and GM will be pulled up.