In recent years, the automotive industry is in the midst of a dramatic upheaval, with leaps and bounds almost every year.
In the past 2021, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 10% of China's auto market, lidar was installed in mass production models for the first time, Robotaxi scenario-based landing operation was officially opened, and major car companies have released carbon neutrality goals...
Time into 2022, what new changes will the automotive travel industry usher in? Where will the winds of the industry blow? Who is the most favored pearl in the palm of the capital market?
Yiou Automobile specially launched the special topic of "Nongyin Acceleration - Insight into the Development Trend of the Automobile Travel Industry in 2022" to find the investment trend, market segment trend and product development trend of the automobile industry in 2022 for the reference of industry insiders.
This article is the eighth article in a special series - "Insights on the Development Trend of New Energy Supplementary Systems in 2022".
In 1948, the first state-run gas station in China's history, Sinopec Shanghai Petroleum First Gas Station, was officially opened on the banks of the Suzhou River. After 74 years of ups and downs, a total of more than 100,000 gas stations have built a network of fuel vehicles in China, which is closely related to China's automobile industry and has been going to this day.
With the passage of time, the vigorous development of new energy vehicles has put forward new requirements for the energy replenishment system, and green energy has begun to flow.
On January 18, 2022, the trillion giant Ningde Times released its own power exchange brand - EVOGO.
As one of the biggest beneficiaries of the dividends of the new energy vehicle era, the Ningde era has called the wind and rain in the core plate of the new energy automobile industry - the power battery field, and now it has cut into the power replacement track, stirring up thousands of waves with one stone.
A larger value space, the energy industry, has been pulled into the field of vision.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2021, China's automobile production and sales reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units respectively, of which the sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years.
This has been followed by a sharp rise in the ownership of new energy vehicles in China. According to data from the Ministry of Public Security, by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in China will reach 7.84 million.
Soldiers and horses have not moved, grain and grass have taken the lead, and the construction and improvement of the new energy replenishment system has become a top priority.
According to data from the China Charging Alliance, the total amount of vehicle charging in China will reach 11.15 billion kWh in 2021, an increase of 58% year-on-year, and the demand for electric vehicle charging continues to grow rapidly.
By the end of 2021, the number of charging infrastructure in the country reached 2.617 million units, an increase of 70.1% year-on-year, ranking the forefront of the world.
Despite this, a phenomenon such as a difficult to find is still common, and users' mileage anxiety about new energy vehicles has gradually transformed into energy replenishment anxiety.
This also means that there is a huge space for excavation in the supplementary energy industry, attracting enterprises such as Ningde Times to participate in the competition.
New energy vehicles have created the Ningde era, and for the entire energy replenishment system, it may only be the tip of the iceberg.
In the "2020-2025 China Charging Infrastructure Development Expectation Report" of Yiou Think Tank, the development of China's charging facilities is divided into four stages, and now it is the golden period of development with the help of new infrastructure and the influx of new players.
In 2022, China's new energy supplementary industry will make great strides forward in competition and cooperation, starting with a unified start and renewing Vientiane.
Policy-driven, crowd-driven
On January 21, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and seven other departments issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption, which clearly proposed to strengthen the construction of supporting infrastructure such as charging and replacing electricity.
With the increase in the number of electric vehicles, the cake of the supplementary energy industry market has become more and more "fragrant", and a group of old gourmets have flocked to it.
Liu Yang, head of product communication at Tesla China, told Yiou Automobile: "The construction of the energy replenishment system is an extremely important thing, no matter how well the car is done, if the energy supply system cannot keep up, then the new energy vehicle will also become a chicken rib." ”
Car companies play an indispensable and important role in the energy supplement industry, since 2006, BYD built Shenzhen's first electric vehicle charging station, car companies have been deeply involved in the construction of China's new energy vehicle energy system.
Nowadays, many car companies are accelerating the pace of their own energy replenishment network construction.
Taking GAC as an example, in April 2021, the first station of GAC EAN charging - Shanghai Hongqiao Airport brand charging station was officially completed, according to GAC EAN planning, by 2025, it will build more than 2,000 charging stations in the country, covering 300 cities.
Xiaopeng, Weilai and other new car-making forces have also moved frequently.
Yiou Automobile learned that as of January 17, 2022, Xiaopeng Automobile's charging network has covered 333 prefecture-level cities and 4 municipalities directly under the central government, with a total of 813 brand supercharging stations and 166 destination charging stations.
Weilai power exchange mode is its highlight. As of February 18, WEI HAS BUILT MORE THAN 835 SUBSTATIONS. Judging from the power exchange plan previously announced by WEILAI, from 2022 to 2025, it will add 600 new substations per year in the Chinese market; by the end of 2025, NIO plans to have a total of more than 4,000 substations, of which about 1,000 are in markets outside China.
In addition to car companies, third-party operators are also the main force.
According to data from the China Charging Alliance, by the end of 2021, enterprises such as Star Charging, Special Call, State Grid, and Cloud Fast Charging will be among the top among china's major operators in terms of the number of charging piles and charging stations operated.
Star Charging, Special Call, Cloud Fast Charging, etc. have developed well in the past year and have all received key financing.
According to Tianyancha data, on January 9, 2021, Special Caller obtained strategic financing of about 300 million yuan; on May 17, Star Charging obtained b round of financing led by Hillhouse, IDG, Beijing Taikang Investment, Yuda Investment, Baolong and Sino-Ocean Real Estate; on November 19, Yun express charging completed the B3 round of financing, invested by OPPO.
Power replacement operators mainly include NIO Power, Aodong New Energy, Hangzhou Botan and other enterprises.
In addition, national pillar energy enterprises such as Sinopec and PetroChina have also conformed to the changing trend of the times and accelerated the construction of charging and replacing power stations.
Sinopec has cooperated with enterprises such as Telai, Star Charging, and Xiaopeng Automobile to accelerate the layout of fast charging, supercharge and other businesses. The power exchange mode is also the direction of its key layout, and has reached cooperation with enterprises such as Aodong New Energy, and it is expected that by 2025, Sinopec will build 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations or oil-hydrogen joint construction stations, 5,000 charging and replacing power stations, and 7,000 distributed photovoltaic power generation stations.
China's huge new energy vehicle replenishment market has also attracted many foreign energy companies.
On November 8, 2021, BP and Aodong New Energy officially signed a cooperation agreement, and the two sides established a joint venture company in Guangzhou.
Shell Group also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO at the end of November. In the Chinese market, the two sides plan to build 100 substations by 2025.
The influx of a large number of players has promoted the construction of the energy replenishment system and brought greater competition.
Frank N. Chen, chief operating officer (COO) of Cloud Fast Charge, said in an interview with Yiou Automobile that for enterprises, the key is the ability to realize, keep up with the pace of marketization, and the phenomenon of big fish eating small fish will occur, but it is not necessarily the people with the most money or the best products with the best technology to win the half, but people who run faster, who can grow rapidly and sustainably, who will get the first opportunity.
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, the development of the new energy supplementary industry will accelerate again, and it will inevitably face new challenges, and carrying out diversified cooperation and seeking development in benign competition is one of the fundamental requirements for deep participation in the construction of the energy supplementary system.
Power exchange is supplemented, charging and replacing are dependent
In the planning and layout of many enterprises, the frequency of substations is getting higher and higher.
In recent years, the call for a substation has risen, and the competition between the two ways of charging and replacing has become one of the biggest attractions of the track.
The difference between power exchange and charging mainly lies in application scenarios, laying costs, user groups and so on.
Frank N. Chen said: "The efficiency of power exchange is high, but the charging network cloth is faster and more convenient. In some specific closed-loop scenarios such as ports and mines, power exchange products are quite applicable, but if it is a large-scale laying of general scenarios, it is not easy to use a single standard to judge, and finally it depends on the adaptability of products and vertical markets and the speed of promotion. ”
On January 10, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other departments jointly issued the Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, proposing to promote the power exchange model in mining farms, ports, and other scenarios according to local conditions.
On the other hand, the operation of the power exchange mode will inevitably require the cooperation of car companies, and changes in battery standards and car structures will be completed when the car leaves the factory.
The conflict of interests and the formulation of standards in the middle have become one of the main reasons restricting the development of the power exchange model.
In addition, the cost and time of substation laying will be higher than that of charging stations.
Liu Yang said that the laying speed of charging facilities such as supercharging stations is faster, because it is simpler than changing power stations, and the cost of substations is relatively expensive.
However, the advantages of the power exchange mode are also obvious, on the one hand, the improvement of the speed of energy replenishment, the small pressure on the power grid, and the user population that does not have private pile conditions.
Yang Ye, co-founder and senior vice president of Aodong New Energy, told Yiou Automobile that before the large-scale outbreak of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to plan and consider in advance such groups that do not have private pile conditions and occupy more than 80% of them, which is the mainstream consumer group of new energy vehicles.
In the view of Yiou Automobile, in the field of private passenger cars, the power exchange model can meet the needs of the people who need a public energy replenishment system to provide services for its new energy vehicles to a certain extent, and meet the needs of this part of the people for energy replenishment, which is a way to make new energy vehicles quickly promote and popularize.
Yang Ye told Yiou Automobile: "All technical routes are actually inseparable from a basic logic, that is, whether it meets the current market demand, and whether it can bring users a good experience, and convenient and efficient value." ”
Yang Ye said frankly that compared with operating vehicles, private car users will have some different needs, such as the popularity and convenience of the energy network, etc. "We are very optimistic about this market, we will expand the breadth of service network coverage with the further deepening of the b-end market, and are exploring the expansion of the C-end market." ”
Yiou Automobile believes that the existence of two ways of charging and replacing electricity complement each other, suitable for different scenarios, different groups of people, and play an important role in the energy replenishment system.
In 2022, the laying of charging piles and charging stations will not stop, and will rely on its advantages such as cost and convenience to radiate a wider range of regions, while the power exchange model will accelerate its development in the to B scenario under the impetus of capital, policies, car companies and other parties, and gradually penetrate into more models.
Fine development, energy to the countryside
According to data from the China Charging Alliance, the number of charging stations and replacement stations in various provinces at the end of 2021 is different, and at present, most of them are guangdong province, Zhejiang Province, Shanghai Municipality, Beijing municipality and other places.
From the perspective of the construction of the entire New Energy Supplementary Energy System in China, it is mainly beijing, Shanghai and other first-tier cities that are relatively perfect.
At present, the big problem in the charging network in third- and fourth-tier cities and even in township areas is the imbalance of energy replenishment time and space, which has become an important reason restricting the popularity of new energy vehicles.
Frank N. Chen believes that the current development of the industry depends on the interaction between the central government, local governments and market-oriented enterprises, "just like three people dancing, if everyone's movements are relatively in tune, the market is relatively mature." ”
The inconsistency of the pace of development in different regions also puts forward the requirements for the construction of the energy replenishment system according to local conditions.
In March 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Notice on Carrying Out New Energy Vehicles to the Countryside activities in 2021", encouraging all localities to introduce more support policies for new energy vehicles going to the countryside, improving the use environment of new energy vehicles, and promoting the construction of rural charging and replacing infrastructure. The "Implementation Plan for Promoting Green Consumption" also mentions the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure.
Liu Yang said that charging facilities will spread across the country, and I believe that one day electric vehicles can go anywhere you want, because electricity will be more convenient than oil.
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, the new energy supplementary system will be further explored, and charging and replacement facilities will be gradually laid in third- and fourth-tier cities and township areas.
Frank N. Chen said that energy is a matter of efficiency, energy is never enough, and the vision of human development is endless, so an important direction for the development of the energy industry is to continuously improve efficiency. Including energy production, energy storage, energy charging, policy response, system planning and other aspects of efficiency.
In Yang Ye's view, the diversified construction of a city's energy supplementary system is not something that can be achieved overnight in a short period of time, and it is necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of the city's overall economic development, urban scale, population size, and new energy policies.
This will put forward higher requirements for the cooperation between enterprises and policies and the technology of energy replenishment products.
China's widely existing areas that have not yet improved the new energy replenishment system are really a space of interest for enterprises, and only when the energy replenishment system is fully rolled out can new energy vehicles be further popularized.
At the same time, this can also bring about an extension of the value of the energy system.
Yang Ye said frankly: "Charging and replacing power is a service of energy replenishment mode or energy, and the service ecology of the replacement power station is more abundant, for example, each power station is a distributed energy storage station in the city." Yiou Automobile learned that the Olympic Movement will land some achievements in 2022, realize the "dual station integration" of energy storage stations and replacement power stations, and achieve landing demonstrations at the technical and commercial operation levels.
Whether it is new energy going to the countryside or industrial development, the key point lies in industrial ecology.
In the face of China's huge population base, if the energy replenishment enterprises fight their own battles, each brand has its own independent charging pile or replacement power station, which will inevitably cause a huge waste of land and electricity resources.
An important prerequisite for the ecological development of the energy supplementary industry is the realization of standardization.
National standards for charging and replacing electricity are being introduced, such as the "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Replacement" implemented on November 1, 2021, which requires collective wisdom and efforts, and enterprises play an important role in it.
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, with the gradual improvement of various charging and replacement standards, China's new energy supplementary system will move towards a refined, ecological and orderly development path.
epilogue
Whether from the national strategic level or industrial upgrading level, the electrification of automobiles is definitely an irreversible development direction.
Yang Ye said that if electric vehicles are already large-scale development, then the energy supplementary system will inevitably enter an orderly, convenient, efficient and public and large-scale development stage.
During this period, government support, capital influx, and industrial development built confidence in the market.
Frank N. Chen admits that it is not easy to think that the market is finally windy, and everyone just has to line up and wait to be blown into the sky. Among them, the long-term operation ability and technological innovation ability of enterprises are still the key factors in whether they can take off.
He believes that the confidence problem has been solved, the policy problem has been solved, and now it is time to start to fight for the truth.
Yiou Automobile believes that in the energy replenishment track, the hard power of car companies should be reflected in the operation ability of charging networks, the ability to scale innovative products, and the ability to build a supplementary energy ecology.
The structure of the energy network can not be completed overnight, in the process of its dynamic development, it is difficult to support alone, and the development of enterprises cannot be separated from the support of the general environment.
"The collective wisdom is huge, we need to work together to promote the development of the industry, to use technology and strength to tackle the market, and really design practical products." Liu Yang said.
In the view of Yiou Automobile, in 2022, with the further improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, as well as the gradual introduction of various standards, complementarity and diversified cooperation, China's new energy supplementary system will gradually move towards standardization, scale and publicization.
The rechargeable power stations will eventually spread rapidly, such as raindrops falling on the surface of the lake, ripples and dots, and finally converge, and the tide will gradually rise