The history and challenges of charging piles

The industry generally believes that the mainland will continue the charging-based, power-changing supplemental energy market pattern in the medium term, and in the next decade, the market demand for charging piles will be further expanded, and the growth of the power-swapping model is also expected to be strengthened.

In 2021, domestic new energy vehicles sold 3.52 million units, an increase of 157.5% year-on-year, and the number of ownership reached 7.84 million, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the year.

The rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles has accelerated the development of the domestic charging and replacing industry. Based on the differences in the applicability of vehicles and batteries, power grids and land resource requirements of charging and power exchange modes, the industry generally believes that the mainland will continue the energy supplementary market pattern of charging as the main and power exchange supplement in the medium term, and in the next decade, the market demand for charging piles will be further expanded, and the growth of the power exchange mode is also expected to be strengthened.

Although the industry prospects are promising, charging and power exchange operators are still trapped in a profit dilemma. In fact, the commercial feasibility and prosperity of downstream operating enterprises directly provide logical support and demand guarantee for the development of the entire industrial chain. This paper sorts out the development and evolution path of the domestic charging and replacing industry in recent years, the development status of the charging and swapping industry and the short-term problems faced by operators, and then explores which types of enterprises may become the final winners of the new energy vehicle replenishment war.

1, the 20-year review of the melee: charging ushered in a stage victory

From the perspective of the development of domestic electric vehicle energy replenishment methods, charging starts later than power replacement.

In 2000, Aodong New Energy began to explore power exchange technology, and in 2005, the first substation facility was set up in Lanzhou. It was not until 2006 that BYD built its first charging station in Shenzhen, which was officially opened on May 31.

The market is volatile, and getting started early doesn't necessarily mean early success.

At the beginning of 2011, Liu Zhenya, general manager of the State Grid, said that the State Grid determined the basic commercial operation mode of electric vehicles as follows: power exchange as the mainstay, plug-in and charging as a supplement, centralized charging, and unified distribution.

However, on May 23, 2011, Wang Binggang, head of the Supervision and Consulting Expert Group on Major Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Projects of the National 863 Program, objected, arguing that it is difficult for domestic consumers who pay attention to the integrity of private property to accept the consumption mode of electricity replacement.

In 2012, some independent brand car companies directly refused to adopt the power exchange mode, and Fu Zhenxing, director of the power system department of SAIC Motor, said, "In terms of passenger cars, the power exchange mode will not be considered." ”

The real spring of charging mode can be said to have begun in 2014.

At the beginning of 2014, the State Grid proposed to optimize the planning and layout of the charging and replacement service network in accordance with the principles of leading fast charging, taking into account slow charging, guiding power exchange, and economical and practical, and determined the development mode and direction of the charging industry.

After that, the State Grid announced the full liberalization of the distributed generation grid-connected project and the electric vehicle charging and replacement facilities market, which completely detonated the entire industry, and a large amount of capital began to pour into the charging station market.

This year, Beijing, Tianjin, Hefei, Shanghai and other places have begun the journey of large-scale construction of charging stations, the charging industry began to initially form a complete supply chain pattern, and the head enterprises have gradually emerged.

It is worth noting that in the process of charging mode gradually becoming the mainstream of the market, charging stations have also ushered in commercialization opportunities earlier.

In 2009, Shanghai Electric Power Company invested in the construction of Shanghai Caoxi Electric Vehicle Charging Station, which is the first electric vehicle charging station with commercial operation functions in China.

In terms of substations, due to the industry in the early stage of development, the lack of platform sharing, coupled with the policy from charging and replacing parallel to encouraging the development of charging, in 2010, Aodong New Energy operated in a commercial mode for the first time at the Guangzhou Asian Games, until 2016, the company's large-scale power exchange commercial operation promotion of the prelude to kicked off.

The commercial application scenario of heavy-duty truck power exchange appeared later, and was landed by THE NINGDE era in July 2020, providing efficient power exchange solutions for the first batch of Futian Zhilan new energy power-changing heavy trucks.

In January 2022, with the release of the "Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", the pattern of charging in the domestic new energy vehicle supplemental energy market with charging as the mainstay and power replacement as a supplement has basically taken shape, which also means that the charging industry has ushered in a stage victory.

2. The operation of the substation is difficult

As a typical heavy asset, the replacement power station operator is also far from the moment of profit. The high initial input cost is an important reason.

The above-mentioned machinery and equipment industry analysts told reporters that at present, the construction of the replacement power station basically requires about 2 million yuan of equipment + about 2 million yuan of batteries, and the total cost is almost 5 million yuan.

GCL Energy introduced in the investor survey on December 29, 2021 that the company's current substation is externally mined, with a cost of about 5 million yuan, of which the passenger car substation equipment investment is about 2.9 million yuan, the battery cost is about 20%, and other costs such as electricity.

The construction cost of a replacement power station in Weilai is reported to be about 2 million yuan, but it does not include site rent, equipment depreciation and other expenses. In addition, the reporter visited the Weilai replacement power station on the spot and found that the second-generation replacement power station that claimed to be unattended still had staff providing services, and the labor cost was not completely reduced.

In terms of Aodong New Energy, Huang Chunhua, general manager of the company's public affairs center, previously said in an interview that Guangzhou's latest 4.0 version of the flagship station, a station has 60 battery reserves, in addition to the need for power capacity increase and cable laying, plus rent, etc., the basic investment is 10 million yuan, "heavy asset operation, financial pressure." ”

From the perspective of the utilization rate of the substation, due to cost considerations, the domestic passenger car substation and the commercial vehicle substation are generally built separately. The breakeven points of different types of substations are different. CITIC Securities believes that the break-even point of passenger car replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 20%, and the break-even point of commercial vehicle replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 10%. However, the utilization rate of the substations currently in operation generally does not reach this level.

Taking the Weilai replacement power station as an example, the reporter learned that if the tram is equipped with a household charging pile, it can enjoy 4 times / month of free power exchange; if you do not choose to be equipped with a household charging pile, you can enjoy 6 times / month of free power exchange. According to the calculation of the average replacement of electricity per vehicle per week, a replacement power station must radiate about 350 vehicles to support 50 orders a day.

The number of battery warehouses in the second generation of Weilai replacement power station is 13, the maximum service capacity is 312 times / day, calculated according to 50 orders a day, the utilization rate is only 16.03% (50 / 312 * 100 = 16.03%).

By the end of 2021, WEILAI has launched nearly 800 substations, requiring 280,000 vehicles to support the share of 50 orders a day. Considering that some car owners choose to install home charging piles, coupled with the fact that some car owners are fixed and charged outside, it means that Weilai needs a total sales volume of more than 280,000 vehicles to cover the cost of substation replacement. As of 2021, the cumulative delivery volume of NIO is less than 200,000 vehicles.

Despite the short-term profitability, in the context of policy promotion, rising electric vehicle ownership and accelerated entry of industrial capital, the outlet of the replacement power station is still quietly coming.

Recently, some insiders in the exchange of power exchange industry said that more than 90% of the current car companies believe that the power exchange mode is feasible, and the future will gradually see more and more battery adaptation and replacement power stations in market practice.

Connect data datayes! According to the report, as of November 2021, the number of domestic substations is only 1192, and it is expected that by 2025, the demand for supporting substations will exceed 28,000. According to this calculation, there is more than 20 times the growth space of the replacement power station in 2021-2025, and the CAGR exceeds 110%.

Can existing operational efficiencies and profitability support the industry's rapid growth? The above-mentioned machinery and equipment industry analysts said that it also depends on the improvement of technology and the binding of downstream.

For example, compared with the first generation, the number of battery warehouses, the maximum number of services, and the charging capacity of the Weilai second-generation replacement power station have been significantly improved; GCL Energy is also striving to be compatible with multiple models such as passenger cars and commercial vehicles in the same replacement power station, striving to achieve two lanes of power exchange at the same time, and jointly developing shared battery packs with the upstream; Aodong New Energy's 4.0 replacement power station has shortened the power exchange time to 20 seconds; the newly launched EVOGO of the Ningde era is suitable for 80% pure electric models, and consumers can flexibly match the number of batteries according to the needs of different mileages.

Zhang Fan, director of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, said that the industry is still in the process of wave development, and investors feel that market demand is pouring in, and then find it difficult to make a profit and exit. After a period of adjustment, the ownership of new energy vehicles reaches a certain scale, and charging pile operators gradually achieve breakeven, and the entire industry can develop healthily.

In terms of the power exchange industry, as of November 2021, there are existing power exchange related in the mainland

Source and Acknowledgements: Charging Pile Horizon