Add another big player to the power circuit.
Text: Xu Kuntao
Source: HigashiShishijo Capital (ID: DsstCapital)
The power exchange industry, which has been quiet for more than ten years, is ushering in a new round of vigorous development, and the two-way rush of policies and markets has gradually attracted more capital.
01
New energy giant 3.7 billion fixed smashing "power exchange"
On March 3, 2022, at the same time as the new energy giant GCL Energy Co., Ltd., a new energy giant with a market value of 10 billion yuan, landed, its 3.765 billion yuan of fixed increase has been finalized for the new energy replacement power station project, and this round of fixed increase has attracted 14 institutions such as Sichuan Jiaotong, Guiyang Production And Control, CITIC Securities, and foreign JPMorgan Chase, which can be said to be a star project in the power exchange track.
Fei Zhi, president of GCL Energy, said that the rapid completion of the fixed increase in fundraising reflects the unanimous optimism of investors from all sides on the development of the power exchange track.
Since 2021, GCL Energy has been constantly moving in the field of power exchange. In October 2021, the first commercial vehicle substation in Changshan, Xuzhou, was put into operation, which can provide energy replenishment services for 30 large engineering vehicles at the same time, and its construction and service provider is GCL Energy. At present, the new energy giant has gained a lot in the field of power exchange, and has reached cooperation with Geely, FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Motor and other leading car companies.
Xu Tingyang, chief economist of GCL Energy, once said that China has the world's largest consumer market for electric vehicles, and the market size of the power exchange industry has reached 500 billion yuan.
In recent years, with the continuous improvement and introduction of electric vehicle replacement standards and the landing of relevant local subsidy policies, intensive financing focusing on main engine factories, battery factories and third-party power exchange service providers has emerged on the power exchange track.
02
Ningde era, BYD, Geely has long been laid out
VC/PE and other winds come
At the beginning of January 2022, the trillion-dollar power battery giant Ningde Times released the power exchange service brand EVOGO, which plans to provide a full set of power exchange services to vehicle companies.
Almost at the same time, Aodong New Energy, which has been established for 6 years to focus on commercial vehicle replacement, has been injected by WEILAI Capital, Tyrannosaurus Capital, Shanghai INESA and other institutions, and this company has just completed a 1.5 billion yuan B round of financing in September 2021, led by Sinopec and Antmi Venture Capital, kip capital, Chunyang Assets, and Guangdong Venture Capital.
In December 2021, Geely Automobile registered a joint venture company for 300 million yuan to sell pure electric models with replaceable batteries, and plans to build 5,000 substations in 2025; BYD wholly invested in Zhejiang Youyuan New Energy, which includes the sale of power exchange facilities.
According to CVSource investment statistics, there have been OEMs such as Geely, Weilai, power battery plant Ningde Times, third-party suppliers GCL Energy and Aodong New Energy, Sinopec, as well as investment institutions such as China Merchants Venture Capital, WEILAI Capital, KIP Capital, etc., involved in the power exchange track and related investment and financing cases.
Why do energy companies, OEMs, and institutions bet heavily on power exchanges at the same time?
"Compared with the charging pile mode, the power exchange mode has the advantages of high efficiency and cost reduction." Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, recently introduced, "It only takes about 1-5 minutes for passenger cars to change electricity... In the initial purchase cost of electric vehicles, power batteries account for about 40%, and in the vehicle-electricity separation mode, the purchase price of electric vehicles can be reduced by up to half. ”
There are currently two common schemes for electric vehicle rapid refueling: one is high-voltage high-power fast charging, and the other is through the replacement of batteries, which is the so-called power exchange.
According to statistics, if the charging pile is used for charging, the charging time of the slow charging pile is about 6-8 hours, and the charging power of the fast charging pile reaches more than 40kW, and it also takes 1-2 hours to fully charge the vehicle, and the fastest power replacement can be completed in a few minutes. Moreover, charging piles are subject to power limitations of the power grid, and at present, the construction of fast charging piles in mainland China is uneven, and a large number of car owners cannot enjoy the convenience brought by fast charging.
It can be seen that power exchange is a potential energy replacement scheme that replaces fast charging.
Up to now, there are only three enterprises engaged in power exchange operations in China and have formed a scale: Weilai Automobile, Aodong New Energy and Hangzhou Botan Technology.
Statistics show that Weilai Automobile (as of March 2022 data) has built a total of 844 stations; Aodong New Energy (as of July 2021 data) has built a total of 338 substations; and Hangzhou Botan Technology (official website data) has built a total of 107 substations.
The industry generally believes that considering the advantages of a more efficient power exchange mode, more friendly to the power grid and land, as well as difficulties such as a lower degree of standardization, a relatively closed system, and higher investment costs, it is expected that in the next 5 years, the domestic new energy vehicle energy supplement market will still maintain a pattern of charging as the main and power exchange as a supplement.
03
Stepping on the policy outlet, trillions of track opportunities
The trillion-level market potential may be the core motivation for power exchange to attract capital and energy giants.
Some institutions estimate that by 2025, the number of replacement power stations will be about 12,500 to 51,900, and in the long run, the demand for passenger car replacement stations nationwide will be 550,000, corresponding to a total of 1.8 trillion yuan for substation equipment and grid-side equipment.
At present, Geely has built 100 substations, and is expected to build at least 5,000 substations in 2025; NIO expects the number of substations to reach 1,300 in 2022; and Aodong New Energy plans to set up 10,000 substations for construction in 5 years.
But the power exchange is not a "fuel-saving lamp", it is understood that a single station investment in the order of millions of yuan, the later maintenance cost is also huge.
BAIC BJEV has revealed that the construction cost of a single station is nearly 10 million yuan, of which the battery reserve cost is more than 3 million yuan; GCL Energy also said in public information that the investment amount of a single-seat passenger car replacement power station is expected to be about 5 million yuan; the industry has calculated that the single station cost of the Weilai second-generation replacement power station is 4 million yuan, the land lease fee is 100,000-300,000 yuan per year, and the labor cost is also more than 300,000 yuan.
The industry generally believes that projects with such high requirements for funds need economic support from the policy side. In 2021, Chongqing announced a cash subsidy of 500,000 yuan / station for substations that meet the standards; State Grid Electric Quanshengming once proposed to include new energy vehicle charging and replacement services in the carbon trading market at the two sessions.
The market expectations of some investors for power exchange are also based on the good trend of policy.
"We're all waiting for carbon trading dividends." An investor involved in the distributed energy project told The Investment Network that the recent gathering of power exchange enterprises is due to the long-term optimism of enterprises in terms of policies, coupled with the launch of the carbon trading market last year, power exchange services can bring higher premiums to enterprises, and it is difficult to survive in the high-cost power exchange mode by relying on operational capabilities and peak-valley electricity price differences.