Is substation operation a good business?

"I just don't understand why anyone still buys a gas car, but there is nothing good about the smell of oil." The speech of Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, may be too extreme, but it is undeniable that the rapid development of electric vehicles is far from calming down.

The evolution of energy replenishment methods is one of the topics that cannot be avoided in the development of electric vehicles. The power exchange model has increased in market attention in recent years, and after a long period of layout and exploration, lithium battery giant Ningde Era also officially released the "EVOGO" Lexing power exchange brand on January 18, 2022.

At present, the number of substation plans announced by major domestic enterprises by 2025 has exceeded 30,000, which is about 25 times the number of completed stations by the end of 2021. But in fact, almost all the substations that have been put into operation in China are facing the problem of insufficient income, large capital investment, slow cost recovery, and low operational efficiency.

1. The initial input cost of the substation is high

As a typical heavy asset, the substation operator is far from profitable. The high initial input cost is an important reason.

Some machinery and equipment industry analysts told First Finance that at present, the replacement power station investment and construction basically requires about 2 million yuan of equipment plus about 2 million yuan of batteries, and the total cost is almost 5 million yuan.

In terms of equipment, some power exchange experts said at the industry exchange meeting that the container is about 200,000 yuan, the general 50 charging cabinets are about 350,000 yuan, the hydraulic lift is more than 100,000 yuan, and the mechanical arm needs more than one million yuan.

According to GCL Energy (002015. SZ) introduced in an investor survey on December 29, 2021, that the company's current substation is outsourced, with a cost of about 5 million yuan, of which about 2.9 million yuan is invested in the replacement station equipment of passenger cars, the battery cost is about 20%, and other costs such as electricity. After the company's self-built integrated equipment is put into use in 2022, the cost can be reduced by nearly half compared with the replacement station of external mining equipment.

The construction cost of a replacement power station in NIO also includes equipment, site rental, equipment depreciation and other expenses. In addition, through the field visit to weilai replacement power station, first finance and economics found that the second-generation replacement power station that claims to be unattended still has staff in providing services, and the labor cost has not been completely reduced.

In terms of Aodong New Energy, Huang Chunhua, general manager of the company's public affairs center, previously said in an interview that Guangzhou's latest 4.0 version of the flagship station, a station has 60 battery reserves, in addition to the need for power capacity increase and cable laying, plus rent, etc., the basic investment is 10 million, "heavy asset operation, capital pressure." ”

The battery reserve of GCL Energy Exchange Power Station is generally 28 pieces, and the significant increase in the number of batteries is one of the reasons for the high cost of the large flagship station. But the company said that the substation will not all be flagship stations, but also medium-sized and small stations.

Zhang Jianping, co-chairman of Aodong New Energy, said that through the localization of parts and components, and the subsequent large-scale expansion of mass production of power stations, the overall cost of building stations will be significantly reduced, and the cost of the original 5,000 seats can be built in the future with 10,000 or even more replacement stations.

2. Insufficient utilization rate of substation

Due to cost considerations, domestic passenger car replacement stations and commercial vehicle replacement power stations are generally built separately. The breakeven points of different types of substations are different. CITIC Securities believes that the break-even point of passenger car replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 20%, and the break-even point of commercial vehicle replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 10%.

Everbright Securities believes that the break-even point of passenger car replacement power station corresponds to a utilization rate of about 20%, and the breakeven point of heavy truck replacement power station corresponds to a 23% utilization rate.

The above-mentioned machinery and equipment industry analysts believe that due to different calculation models, there is a certain gap in the results obtained, and it can only be said that the higher the number of power exchanges, the better, but the utilization rate of the replacement power stations that have been put into operation generally cannot reach this level.

First Finance and Economics learned in Weilai Replacement Power Station that if the tram is equipped with a household charging pile, it can enjoy 4 times / month of free power exchange; if you do not choose to be equipped with a household charging pile, you can enjoy 6 times / month of free power exchange. According to the calculation of the average replacement of electricity per vehicle per week, a replacement power station must radiate about 350 vehicles to support 50 orders a day.

The number of battery warehouses in the second generation of Weilai replacement power station is 13, the maximum service capacity is 312 times / day, calculated according to 50 orders a day, the utilization rate is only 16.03% (50 / 312 * 100 = 16.03%).

By the end of 2021, WEILAI has launched nearly 800 substations, requiring 280,000 vehicles to support the share of 50 orders a day. Considering that some car owners choose to install home charging piles, coupled with the fact that some car owners are fixed and charged outside, it means that Weilai needs a total sales volume of more than 280,000 vehicles to cover the cost of substation replacement. As of 2021, the cumulative delivery volume of NIO is less than 200,000 vehicles.

In terms of commercial vehicles, according to GCL Energy, the company's substation focuses on the use scenario of the mileage of more than 300km, equipped with 28 batteries, the number of power exchanges can reach up to 288 times / day, and the number of power exchanges reaches 60 vehicles / day to achieve break-even, that is, the utilization rate needs to reach 20.83%.

From the perspective of charging mode, GCL Energy co., in accordance with the degree of electricity charging, the car electricity is not separated (buy a battery when buying a car), the service fee and charging are almost the same, plus the basic electricity fee, the charging standard is 0.9-1 yuan / kWh; the separation of vehicle electricity depends on the battery cost, the charging standard is about 1.5 yuan / kWh.

The company said that the life of the replacement power station can be maintained for 10 years under normal use, the construction cost of the replacement power station is about 5 million yuan, the depreciation is 10 years, 500,000 yuan per year, and the cost of labor and other costs is calculated at 150,000 yuan per year.

From the perspective of battery power, GCL Energy Replacement Power Station is 43kwh per battery, if the driver enters the station to change the power when 20% of the remaining power is 20%, each time the power is changed by 34.4 degrees, according to the separation of vehicle electricity, the maximum daily income is 3096 yuan (34.4 * 1.5 * 60 = 3096), the annual income is 1.13 million, deducting the cost of 650,000 yuan and 25% income tax, the net profit is 360,000 yuan, and the annual return on investment is 7.2%.

In terms of Aodong, Huang Chunhua said in November 2021 that Guangzhou has built 30 substations, covering 3,000 vehicles a year, nearly 500 vehicles a day to change electricity, and breakeven in three and a half years; Shanghai has 20 stations, which are still in the climbing stage, and then after 30 stations are built, the basic network is formed. However, when first finance and economics visited recently, it was found that only 15 of the 25 Aodong substations that have been built in Shanghai are in operation.

3. Is the operation of the substation a good business?

Although short-term profitability is worrying, in the context of policy promotion, rising electric vehicle ownership and accelerated entry of industrial capital, the outlet of the replacement power station is still unexpected.

Recently, some insiders in the exchange of power exchange industry said that more than 90% of the current car companies believe that the power exchange mode is feasible, and the future will gradually see more and more battery adaptation and replacement power stations in market practice.

Xiong Yuzhou also believes that power replacement can be replenished by directly replacing the battery, which can form an effective scene complementary with the charging mode and jointly promote the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. For operational vehicles, the advantages of power exchange are obvious, can meet the efficiency requirements of users to change fast, through the GCL Electric Port preliminary calculations, compared with the previous charging mode, taxi drivers can earn about 1500-2000 yuan per month; for operators, commercial vehicle replacement power stations can obtain a broader market and a better profit model; for society, the power exchange mode can reduce the risk of uneven load on the grid, and promote the realization of the social goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Connect data datayes! According to the report, as of November 2021, the number of domestic substations is only 1192, and it is expected that by 2025, the demand for supporting substations will exceed 28,000. According to this calculation, there is more than 20 times the growth space of the replacement power station in 2021-2025, and the CAGR exceeds 110%.

Can existing operational efficiencies and profitability support the industry to develop at such a high rate? The above analysts said that it also depends on the improvement of technology and the binding of downstream.

For example, compared with the first generation, the number of battery warehouses, the maximum number of services, and the charging capacity of the Weilai second-generation replacement power station have been significantly improved; GCL Energy is also striving to be compatible with multiple models such as passenger cars and commercial vehicles in the same replacement power station, striving to achieve two lanes of power exchange at the same time, and jointly developing shared battery packs with the upstream; Aodong New Energy's 4.0 replacement power station has shortened the power exchange time to 20 seconds; the newly launched EVOGO of the Ningde era is suitable for 80% pure electric models, and consumers can flexibly match the number of batteries according to the needs of different mileages.