In recent years, the automotive industry is in the midst of a dramatic upheaval, with leaps and bounds almost every year.
Just in the past 2021, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 10% of china's auto market, lidar was installed in mass production models for the first time, Robotaxi officially opened commercialization, and major car companies have released carbon neutral targets...
The time has entered the year of the 2022 non-Yin Tiger, and the automobile travel related industries will continue to step on the waves and accelerate their development.
Yiou Automobile specially launched the special topic of "Nonyin Acceleration - Insight into the Development Trend of the Automobile Travel Industry in 2022" to explore new trends in the capital market, segmentation and product technology related to the automobile travel industry in 2022 for the reference of industry insiders.
This article is the ninth in a series of articles - "Insights on the Development Trend of Automotive Service and Circulation Digitalization in 2022".
In 2018, China's auto market abruptly stopped after 28 consecutive years of sales growth, entering the darkest hour, and the auto market gradually transitioned from the incremental era to the stock era. In the field of automotive services and distribution, transformation and breakthroughs have also become the main theme.
Compared with developed countries, China's car ownership has ranked among the first echelon of the global camp, but if we talk about the maturity of the model and the perfection of the system in the field of automobile service and circulation, there is still a big gap between China and developed countries in Europe and the United States.
The impact of the epidemic and the lack of cores has magnified many anxieties and confusions about the industry, making the competition in the field of automobile circulation and services more intense, forcing enterprises to accelerate innovation.
Now that all parties are exploring the road ahead of automobile circulation and services, how to break through the existing pattern in 2022? How will the automotive distribution value chain be reconstructed? Where will the market trend go?
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, the field of automobile circulation and service will show eight major development trends:
01 Policy-driven brings benefits, and industry standards and normativity are increased
On March 5, 2021, the state leaders clearly stated in the "Government Work Report" made at the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress that it is necessary to promote the reform of the whole process of production access and circulation management in the automotive industry and steadily increase the bulk consumption of automobiles.
In the same month, the "Fourteenth Five-Year plan for National Economic and Social Development (2021-2025) and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035" was released, which pointed out that it is necessary to deeply implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development, and accelerate the positive impact of consumer goods such as automobiles on economic development.
The blessing of the policy makes people more optimistic about the development of the automobile circulation field this year.
However, it has always been the consensus of the industry that the development of China's automobile circulation market lags behind the entire automobile market.
Fu Cong, senior director of Lianyou Technology, told Yiou Automobile that China's automobile circulation field is mainly subject to the short history of development, "in terms of industry standards, standardization, parts management, maintenance technology, certification system, technical information disclosure and practitioners' understanding of digital technology, there are still many immature parts." ”
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2021, the production and sales of automobiles in the Chinese market reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year, respectively, and correspondingly, the growth potential of the automobile circulation market is still huge.
In addition to the scale dividend, China's automobile circulation market still has pain points such as scattered layout and small scale. At a time when various innovative formats are emerging in an endless stream, there is no clear classification standard or specification for the automobile circulation market, which is difficult to meet the needs of the development of industry standards in the field of automobile circulation.
At the end of December 2021, the China Chain Store & Franchise Association issued the group standard "Classification of Chain Formats in the Automotive Aftermarket" (T/CCFAGS 029-2021).
Yiou Auto believes that the release of this regulation will define the definition and model of the automobile circulation market business, and provide support and guidance for the industry in the future.
02 The oil-power division landed on the beach, and the new energy vehicle policy market was driven in both directions
In 2021, the performance of new energy vehicles is eye-catching.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 reached 3.521 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for 7 consecutive years, and there are 8 Chinese brands in the top 20 of the global new energy brand sales list in 2021.
In 2021, in the Chinese market, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market penetration rate was 13.4%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year.
After the beginning of the year, various car companies have released good sales reports, in addition to a number of active transformation of traditional car companies, and gradually gained a foothold in the new car-making forces, in 2021 Millet, Baidu, Foxconn, 360, Huawei and other cross-border players, are eager to join the new energy vehicle market qualification competition.
The rapid growth momentum of new energy vehicles has formed a strong contrast with the trend of traditional fuel vehicles.
Yiou Automobile believes that this shows signs of new energy in the automobile market to a certain extent, and the new energy vehicle market, which was driven by policy one wheel in the past, is changing to a "policy + market demand" two-wheel drive.
At the 2021 China Automobile Circulation Industry Annual Conference held on December 3 last year, Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Circulation Association, also said that the production and sales of fuel vehicles have basically peaked, and the future downturn has been a trend, while new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth and gradually seize the fuel vehicle market.
03 The blockage points of the second-hand car market have been fully opened, and the circulation reform has been accelerated
China's second-hand car circulation industry has been in the exploratory stage in terms of circulation model upgrading and structural reform.
However, the macroeconomic development of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the changes in the policy environment in the automotive-related fields seem to be changing from purchase management to use management, and are concentrated in the circulation link, and a new round of new energy subsidy policies will also bring new opportunities for this situation.
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, the national reform of "decentralization service" in the field of automobile circulation will continue to advance in depth and comprehensively open up relevant policies for blockages and pain points in the second-hand car market.
Once the measures are introduced, it will inject new vitality into the development of the second-hand car market, and the circulation of second-hand cars will be as convenient as the circulation of new cars, thereby creating a larger market space for new car consumption and promoting the sustainable development of the entire automobile market.
It is foreseeable that new energy used car transactions will also stabilize in 2022.
The global auto market has been significantly impacted by an outbreak in early 2020, and epidemic prevention and control measures have also made it difficult to carry out automotive offline business.
Under the pressure of declining new car sales, lower profits and high operating costs, many domestic and foreign auto dealers are now looking forward to the digital transformation of the used car business.
However, for domestic 4S dealers, the reshaping of the used car business is still a major strategic project.
The imperfect second-hand car industry and the uneven quality of used cars have exposed the lack of automobile culture and imperfect trading mechanisms earlier under the impetus of the epidemic.
It is precisely because the shortcomings of the second-hand car market are gradually exposed, so that the domestic early involved in the industry every day to shoot cars, precautions, put forward the corresponding digital transformation solutions.
Last year, Tesla, Weilai, Weima and other brands also established officially certified second-hand car brands to enhance product circulation.
Yiou Automobile believes that in 2022, the second-hand car auction platform will surface, and while improving the second-hand car survey and industry testing, pricing ability and operation management level, it will further improve the circulation efficiency of China's second-hand cars, help car dealers improve their credibility, reduce costs, and help establish brands.
04 Digital and intelligent transformation to achieve direct user connection, and compete for the first-mover advantage of reaching the C-end
In the era of intelligent networking, digitalization will be crucial to the sustainable development of the automotive industry and market.
New technologies represented by social networks and big data have led the transformation of the entire automotive industry structure and value chain, not only in the front end of automotive research and development and manufacturing, but also in the field of automotive services, consumers continue to have a preference and demand for digitalization.
With that, automotive value is no longer defined by hardware, but by software and service creation.
With the new wave of science and technology and the development of the digital economy, the digital transformation of the automotive industry and market is accelerating, and has penetrated into all fields of industry development.
In the view of Zhang Yanwei, COO of Daily Car Shooting, from the lenovo-style "trade and industry technology" to the accelerated realization of digitalization today, the whole industry has waited too long.
Digitalization and intelligence have improved the efficiency of interaction and achieved better exposure and reach, but the redistribution and balance of interests of stakeholders in the existing value chain have restricted the effect.
In this process, we have seen the determination and wisdom of some car companies, to see who can take the lead in breaking the situation in the future, more properly handle the relevant stakeholders, light load, completely realize direct user connection, and establish a first-mover advantage and winning point.
Zhang Yanwei said that Tiantian Paiche has been cooperating with Autohome in depth, borrowing its platform and injecting capital for long-term development.
He is optimistic about the application prospects of SaaS systems, hoping to use them to reach users more widely, meet their personalized needs, drive business growth, and achieve customer acquisition and conversion.
05 The structural changes on the supply side are aggravated, and the negative radiation long tail effect of missing cores decreases
Rich in coal, poor oil, and powerful new energy technologies, but nowhere to show them, is China's objective status quo.
Combined with multiple factors at home and abroad, the lack of core and the continuous rise of upstream raw materials have spawned changes in the supply-side structure of the automotive service and circulation field.
Guo Chun, assistant vice president of Yixin Group, believes that combined with the macro market trend of differentiation in the first and second half of last year and the performance of the automobile market in January this year, the negative radiation of lack of cores in the circulation field will gradually weaken.
This year, China's auto market has encountered supply-side challenges, chip shortages have led to tight supply of new cars, but by September the gap has narrowed, supply pressure has begun to ease, more production capacity has been released, and dealers' inventories are gradually increasing.
By 2022, the supply of chips will gradually improve, especially in the middle of this year, most of the tight models will be well supplied.
Since 2015, the average inventory warning index of Chinese dealers (inventory retention funds/circulating funds) is 57.0%, with 50% as the boom-bust line, which is located above the boom-bust line for a long time (the inventory pressure has long exceeded the boom-bust line), which means that the inventory pressure is large for a long time.
Affected by multiple factors at home and abroad, the security risks of the automotive supply chain have surged, which has profoundly affected the structural balance of the automotive industry chain and the supply chain, and is prominently manifested as the adverse impact of the shortage of automotive semiconductor chip production capacity on the global automotive market, which should be paid great attention to.
In this regard, the future supply chain should accelerate the realization of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and it is the proper meaning to do a good job in cost control in the transaction performance link to reduce the impact of chip shortage on the global automotive industry.
06 The traditional multi-level distribution model has been gradually eliminated, and the coordination of production and marketing has accelerated the integration of the industry value chain
The traditional automobile sales model is facing an unprecedented test, how to further play and make good use of the advantages of existing channels in terms of efficiency and system, manufacturers and dealers need to face it together with an open and inclusive mentality, uphold the concept of consultation, co-construction and sharing, and open a new situation in the changing situation.
Service providers such as Shenzhou Chauffeur and Didi will replace the circulation industry as the transit bearer of the car.
The rise of car sharing/time-sharing platforms is also squeezing the cake share of the traditional circulation industry.
In recent years, everyone has landed the C2M model in one brain, and now the D2C model is more favored.
In terms of consumer Internet, the new force WM Automobile has established a D2C center and a digital intelligent store on the basis of the actual industrial Internet, providing users with online consultation, reservation, offline car viewing, test drive, maintenance and other services anytime and anywhere.
This further integrates the industrial and consumer Internet and enhances the digital experience of customers.
The diversified development of automobile circulation channels has gradually made 4S dealers "under pressure", and production and marketing coordination, private domain integration and full-link insight are the only way to accelerate the integration of the industry value chain and achieve a new leap forward.
07 The effectiveness and convenience of financial risk control (regulatory services) have increased, and the penetration rate of loan assistance services has been enhanced
In 2022, financial institutions will pay more attention to the demand for auto loans, and new cars, used cars, and even some extended warranty products can be purchased financially at a lower current cost. They will launch low-interest products that are more consumer-friendly, which also has a positive boost to the market.
Auto finance risk control is actually a kind of "soft service" mentioned earlier. After the realization of digital products, the entire service capability of financial risk control will be greatly improved, based on the popularity of front-loading TCU, it can realize overdue heat map analysis, positioning trajectory analysis, resident analysis, abnormal early warning reminder, abnormal aggregation, inventory car inventory, electronic fence and early warning and other related services.
Whether it is retail finance or inventory finance, it can provide more effective and convenient regulatory services, thereby effectively increasing the penetration of financial services.
In the view of Jia Zhifeng, CTO of Yixin Group, with the popularization of intelligent network technology, the future digital description of cars and people will be from static to dynamic, from macro to fine, from IT to DT, more comprehensive, real-time, online, this order of magnitude progress will have a very critical role in promoting auto finance risk control.
For the entire automotive service and circulation industry, in the process of providing auto financing services, Yixin can achieve higher efficiency and lower fraud risk through the digitization of the whole life cycle of pre-financing, financing and post-financing, so as to achieve strong supervision.
Guo Chun, assistant vice president of Yixin Group, also said that from the development of financial leasing to loan assistance business, Yixin Financial has been able to deepen the sinking of users, and the foresight of the company's resource allocation strategy has also been verified.
08 Technological innovation empowerment, digging into the aftermarket
In 2022, the commercialization possibility of the automotive aftermarket will emerge, stimulating the attention and investment enthusiasm of the capital market.
According to yiou auto statistics, as of December last year, there were 10 major financing events in the domestic automotive aftermarket, mainly including maintenance, auto parts supply chain, car wash, remanufacturing and other fields, excluding auto retail, used car fields, and the overall cold.
Yiou Automobile believes that the heat of capital still depends on the subdivision track, in fact, automatic driving, intelligent networking and shared travel are still hot spots, and the overall aftermarket service has cooled down to a certain extent.
In Fu Cong's eyes, after the beginning of 2019, market services have become more rational, and capital is no longer easy to pay for new stories. In the subdivision track, with the development of the industrial Internet, the project of integrating and optimizing the auto parts supply chain has been verified due to the feasibility of commercial logic, and has gradually been favored by capital.
Many social platforms with capital attributes and aftermarket platforms with brand attributes of car companies do not match the current development path and the huge potential space of the automotive aftermarket. Only through technological innovation empowerment can we tap the aftermarket.
09 Conclusion
It is a well-established fact that the aftermarket, as a value depression in the automotive industry chain, is also a muddy land.
However, opportunities and challenges coexist, the aftermarket is still the key layout of the capital track, the most important thing is that after the baptism and education of the Internet tide, all services have been highly online in China, and consumers have the ultimate pursuit of service convenience.
At present, the stage of the aftermarket platform is still in the stage where consumer demand forces industrial upgrading.
The traditional multi-level distribution value chain will be phased out, the integration of the industry value chain will be accelerated, through digital means, optimize the efficiency of the supply chain, improve the synergy between production and marketing, and more convenient online contact access, which will make the downstream network of the entire industrial chain more competitive.
With the gradual implementation of policies such as industry standards and standardization in the future, the entire aftermarket service industry will continue to mature and the concentration will continue to increase.