In recent years, the automotive industry is in the midst of a dramatic upheaval, with leaps and bounds almost every year.
Just in the past 2021, new energy vehicles accounted for more than 10% of china's auto market, lidar was installed in mass production models for the first time, Robotaxi officially opened commercialization, and major car companies have released carbon neutral targets...
The time has entered the year of the 2022 non-Yin Tiger, and the automobile travel related industries will continue to step on the waves and accelerate their development.
Yiou Automobile specially launched the special topic of "Nonyin Acceleration - Insight into the Development Trend of the Automobile Travel Industry in 2022" to explore new trends in the capital market, segmentation and product technology related to the automobile travel industry in 2022 for the reference of industry insiders.
This article is the third in a series of articles, "Carbon Neutrality Development Trend Insights in 2022".
In-depth discussion from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality, how can car mobility move to the future?
In 2022, the auto travel market will firmly adhere to the direction of carbon neutrality, the knockout race will continue, new energy vehicles will become more market-oriented, subsidies will decline, carbon trading will come together, upstream and downstream chains will benefit, and international cooperation will deepen.
At the same time, the field of carbon neutrality in travel this year has increasingly shown the trend of multiplying and business, terminal re-electrification, scientific, stable and transparent carbon emission reduction, double supply and demand, and "money" and self-drive are each other.
Specifically, Yiou Auto believes that the carbon neutral development trend in the field of automobile mobility in 2022 is:
01 From barbaric growth to high-quality development, the marketization trend of new energy vehicles continues to increase
At present, a new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are booming, and the integration of automobiles with relevant technologies in the fields of energy, transportation, information and communication is accelerating.
The past 2021 was a year of shock adjustment for new energy vehicles, and it was also a year of spurt development.
According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" industrial green development plan, by 2025, the output value of the mainland's green environmental protection industry will reach 11 trillion yuan. New energy, new materials, new energy vehicles and other industries will receive key support.
The HKCC will adjust the expected sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 from 4.8 million to 5.5 million, and set a Flag with sales of new energy vehicles exceeding 6 million units and an expected penetration rate of 22%.
Under the double rise of supply and demand, new forces such as Xiaopeng and Weilai have also made sales settings of selling 200,000 vehicles in 2022.
When the heavens and the earth work together, the heroes are not free.
In the shock wave of carbon neutral transformation, whether it is high energy consumption and low energy consumption, or continuous and discrete production enterprises, although the countermeasures are different, car companies that do not have growth thinking will inevitably be eliminated in the last place in the severe and changeable market environment.
When the sales growth rate of the automotive industry survives the painful period, it will accelerate the transformation of China's automotive energy structure.
Those with high energy consumption and high pollution production capacity will be naturally eliminated, and high-tech categories will be more popular.
OEMs and suppliers are left, and the new energy vehicle industry chain has ushered in a deep reshuffle, which has promoted a greener, low-carbon and sustainable way of revenue growth in the automobile market.
02 Subsidies are falling and raw materials are rising, and the carbon trading market is driving pressure resistance
On the last day of 2021, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy issued by the ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission was late but arrived.
The "Notice on the Promotion and Application of Financial Subsidy Policies for New Energy Vehicles in 2022" pointed out that in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021 for urban buses, road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the field of public service of party and government organs.
It is worth noting that the Notice clarifies that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
According to the latest subsidy plan, starting from 2022, the subsidy for pure trams with a range of 300 to 400 kilometers is 0.91 million yuan / unit, a decrease of 3900 yuan; the subsidy for pure trams with a range greater than 400 kilometers is 12,600 yuan / unit, a decrease of 5400 yuan; and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles with a pure electric endurance of more than 50 kilometers is 0.48 million / unit, a decrease of 204 yuan.
In the case of a clear reduction in subsidies, superimposed on factors such as rising raw material prices, it seems inevitable that many car companies will brew price adjustments in order to "just eat".
Whether you are a consumer or an entrant, Yiou Auto advises everyone not to be too anxious.
In 2020 alone, Tesla, an internet celebrity new energy vehicle company, earned $1.58 billion in revenue by selling carbon credits, which combined with the net profit of $720 million in that year, it can be regarded as a strong claim for its consecutive years of losses.
By the end of 2020, carbon credits had brought Tesla a total of $3.3 billion (about 20.99 billion yuan) in revenue over the past five years.
Looking at Tesla's financial reports released in each quarter of 2021, even if profitability and self-hematopoietic ability gradually improve, carbon credit revenue is still an important source of profit.
Selling carbon is more profitable than selling cars, and Tesla likes to mention the title of "selling carbon".
This also shows that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and Yiou Automobile believes that the terminal market still has some resistance to the decline of subsidies.
03 The whole industrial chain and supporting facilities chain benefit, looking at the international deepening of integration
Some people ridicule Tesla for earning "living expenses" by points, and some people black Apple relies on "autism" to get a share.
At present, in the domestic market, Apple not only has its own family in terms of ecological independence, but also achieved a closed loop in carbon emission reduction.
According to Apple's 2021 environmental progress report, by 2030, Apple will reduce carbon emissions across the entire industry chain to 25% of the 2015 level, and the remaining ones that cannot be reduced will be reduced by investing in carbon removal solutions, and promise to achieve carbon neutrality for the entire footprint from the supply chain to product use.
According to Yiou Automobile, at its own level, Apple's premises and facilities use 100% renewable energy, such as office buildings (Apple Park), stores (Apple Store), data centers (Guizhou on the cloud), etc., all using 100% clean energy.
Now, it uses more recycled materials on the same product.
For example, the MacBook Air with a Retina display already contains 40% recycled material, and the amount of recycled tungsten in the iPhone 12 and Apple Watch Series 6 has reached 99%.
As far as the carbon emissions of Apple's entire supply chain are concerned, under the scope of Scope 3 (emissions from the production process of the raw material supply chain, that is, accounting for carbon emissions throughout the life cycle), it is also basically in line with Apple's environmental progress report targets for 2021.
Apple focuses on the Carbon Footprint and tries to influence the entire industry chain beyond its own brands and companies.
Everyone's impression of Apple has always been that it is outside the travel ecology, in fact, its permanent self-driving department has also cooperated with Tesla and Waymo in different fields before.
The automobile itself is a focused industry, from the R & D and design stage, the construction of a green ecological chain, to the supply chain production and other aspects can be traced.
Therefore, the whole industry chain and supporting facilities of subdivided industries such as fuel cells, electric industry chains, vehicle manufacturing, and charging piles will also benefit from carbon neutrality.
This will also promote domestic enterprises to look at the world, invest, build factories, produce and sell overseas, and provide Chinese wisdom for international cooperation in the field of clean energy.
04 Multiplying and business together to exacerbate the transformation of digital intelligence, technology-driven to achieve terminal re-electrification
Passenger cars and commercial vehicles are advancing at the same frequency, intensifying the transformation of digital intelligence.
A chip has once become a "black swan" event affecting the development of the automobile industry in recent years.
Previously, China's chips were more dependent on imports, and the recycling and processing technology for the common ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries on the market was not mature, and they faced the problems of long dismantling time, high cost and large energy consumption, and could not effectively save energy and reduce emissions.
In the face of the unknown market form in 2022, passenger car groups such as FAW, SAIC, Changan, GAC, and Geely are actively carrying out digital and intelligent transformation, taking products, brands, and users as the starting point, and using black technology to empower low-carbon life.
Commercial vehicle companies continue to move towards the ambitious goal of reducing fuel consumption by 30% (or pure electric), reducing carbon emissions by 30% (or zero emissions), and improving freight efficiency by 70% by 2025.
Commercial vehicles have also continuously launched a variety of new energy models covering pure electric, hydrogen fuel, hybrid/range extended range, etc., "tailor-made" solutions for different customer demand scenarios, and help to create a "national 123 travel traffic circle" and "global 123 fast cargo flow circle".
At the same time, the carbon emission reduction of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles should follow the principle of "subtraction of emissions and addition of technology".
As Wang Yang, co-founder and president of Energy Chain, said to Yiou Automobile: "It will take decades for oil and electricity to switch. Therefore, stock reduction and incremental replacement is the only way for China's transportation energy to achieve 'double carbon'. ”
From China V to China VI, fuel vehicles are gradually upgrading their technical routes.
In 2022, Yiou Auto believes that it can "grasp" the thermal efficiency improvement of traditional engines and break through the technical key points of the aftertreatment system upgrade.
Terminal re-electrification (the fundamental and irreversible way of energy transformation) is a huge period of opportunity for the new energy automobile industry.
The "Sindelfingen 56 plant" and the power battery factory , The Kamenz plant , which were previously put into operation by Mercedes-Benz, are also used to promote the development of Mercedes-Benz electrification.
From January to December 2021, the loading volume of power batteries in mainland China totaled 154.5GWh, an increase of 142.8% year-on-year.
Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 74.3GWh, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed vehicles, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
Yiou Automobile believes that when the power battery recycling process is gradually standardized, the hands are freed by machines, the human brain is replaced by AI, and the power development is compatible with technologies such as electrification and the Internet of Vehicles, energy consumption will also be greatly reduced.
05 The implementation path of carbon emission reduction is more scientific and stable, and the data is transparent and traceable
As of December 31, 2021, the first fulfillment cycle of China's carbon market has officially ended. The cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission quotas is 179 million tons, the cumulative turnover is 7.661 billion yuan, the average transaction price is 42.85 yuan / ton, and the fulfillment rate is 99.5% (calculated by the amount of performance).
Today, restarting China's Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) mechanism and improving the carbon emissions calculation and tracking system are the expectations of the national carbon market in 2022.
Car companies have mastered a wide range of technical means and can make full use of the support of artificial intelligence, big data and blockchain.
Thanks to the continuous advancement of carbon capture and carbon storage technology, it is more "friendly" to achieve emission reductions using renewable energy sources, etc., making it impossible to accelerate the realization of transparent and traceable carbon emission data.
For example, BMW previously used aluminum produced by solar power to reduce carbon dioxide emissions; Audi insisted on environmentally friendly logistics and aluminum closed-loop manufacturing, and built two major carbon-neutral bases to promote emission reduction.
Carbon trading allowances are not oligopotent, but uneven.
In order for emission reduction targets to be implemented fairly and effectively in every place through trading quotas, it has become particularly necessary for carbon disclosures to be made public.
Looking forward to 2022, it will be more convenient for car companies to carry out product "full life cycle" (LCA) management actions and scientifically measure user travel.
Ordinary car owners can also increase their understanding and cognition of the carbon emission knowledge behind the use of vehicles through digital methods, and be "cultivated" as green and low-carbon car owners.
06 Supply-side and demand-side two-way force, the reform of the market green investment demand and structure
So specific to low-carbon application scenarios, how does the aftermarket do the business of these emerging car owners?
"There is room for optimization in every link of the car owner's search for the gas station, parking, payment, invoicing, etc., which can further reduce carbon emissions," Wang Yang said, for example.
In 2022, the supply side and demand side of the automotive industry will be two-way force, and the entire industrial chain, including the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, the manufacturing end, and the operation end, will benefit from the carbon neutrality of investment.
Many domestic institutions have measured new direct investment under carbon neutrality.
Among them, the "Blue Book of Zero Carbon China Green Investment" released by the Investment Association of China calculates that the scale of investment related to "carbon neutrality" is about 70 trillion yuan; the institute of climate change and sustainable development of Tsinghua University predicts that the investment scale is between 127.2-174.4 trillion yuan; and researchers at the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission predict that the new investment in "carbon neutrality" will exceed 139 trillion yuan.
From charging pile operators to independent third-party charging sharing platforms, cloud fast charging, which chose to cooperate with GLP Hidden Mountain Capital to establish the Carbon Neutral Industry Fund, is also one of the beneficiaries of this trend.
Frank N. Chen, chief operating officer of Yunkuaichong, said: "Capital dividends and industrial upgrading are mutually exclusive, and we will use the raised money for the research and development of a new generation of energy management systems, including energy storage, and firmly position high-tech companies with high growth and light assets." ”
Frank believes that the "double carbon" fund is a kind of heavy capital investment, and the heavy capital model of the cloud fast charging technology gene + fund can combine the advantages of the two better.
To be sure, short-term pressures on carbon emission reduction will lead to supply-side reform expectations based on administrative means to reduce production capacity.
In 2022, A-shares will target high-quality enterprises, and the investment vision and proportion will be more aggressive.
The carbon reduction of the automobile industry chain will certainly be able to fully amplify its economic value and social effects.
07 Conclusion
The times never fail people, but only sharpen the world.
We often step on the dividing line of history, still dazed and ignorant.
The energy efficiency thinking of taking the east and west of the Hu Huanyong line as a control group has long been outdated, and the current technology travel industry is stirring up a variety of echoes in the field of carbon neutrality, blockchain, lightweighting, charging and replacing, big data, sensors, ECUs, high-precision maps, AI path planning...
Some people are like a rainbow, and some people fall on the last night before dawn.
As the main line of future energy development and the nuclear "core" track, "decarbonization" in 2022 is still a tough battle.
Judging the China way of carbon neutrality, we must not jump out of the development opportunities of smart energy, carbon economic model, energy storage industry development, smart energy system construction, green finance development, business model innovation and innovative technology development... Full grasp of the level of equality.
At every juncture of change, we should be deeply intertwined with it.
Policy escort, market growth, time and place are already favorable. How to call on subjective initiative and give full play to the advantages of "people"? It is a choice of adaptation and growth, and car companies in 2022 can no longer "carbon" gas.