The epidemic interferes with production, and the output in January is lower than expected, and manufacturers actively welcome the "opening red"

According to the data released by the Association on February 14, the car market entered 2022, and the chip shortage gradually eased, but the epidemic in January disrupted the production rhythm of some manufacturers, and the output was less than expected. However, the retail trend in January was better, and the car market continued to be hot before the Spring Festival.

Specifically, domestic production of generalized passenger cars in January this year was 2.091 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year and down 16.9% month-on-month. Retail sales in January reached 2.112 million units, down 4.5% y/y and down 1.4% m/m.

"In January, the output of the passenger car market did not meet expectations, and some areas under the background of the epidemic were greatly affected, including Tianjin, Beijing, Hangzhou and other regions, which affected the production rhythm of some manufacturers, especially FAW Toyota in Tianjin, etc., with large production losses." Tianjin is an important production base in the country, and FAW-Volkswagen and Great Wall Motors have also been affected. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association of Automobile Associations, said that the impact of chips is currently small, and the supply of automobiles continues to improve.

Cui Dongshu believes that retail and wholesale in January are basically in line with the forecast. He said that the Spring Festival starts from January 31, pre-holiday production and consumer car purchases will stop a few days earlier, and the entire production and sales after the 26th are in a semi-stop state, so January is not a complete month, compared with December five working days less. "In this context, retail sales in January fell 4% year-on-year, which we think is a good performance state. Because of the Spring Festival (reduced working days) loss of about 15%, if you add this part of the loss, January retail performance is super strong. This reflects the characteristics of continuous popularity before the festival, this year's Spring Festival before the homecoming tide is more hot, the local New Year has been relaxed, which also to a certain extent to pull sales, this year presented a strong initial stage. ”

Cui Dongshu said that with the gradual strengthening of production and wholesale in the past few months, the overall supply of the automobile market has picked up, and manufacturers have actively welcomed the "opening of the door". With the arrival of the pre-holiday sales season, dealers have significantly increased their preferential efforts in January to achieve a stronger terminal retail. In addition, some traditional car companies have been affected by chips and lowered their expectations in 2021, and the undelivered order resources have been transferred to the first quarter of the 2022 car market, so efforts to ensure a good start and guarantee delivery will be implemented in the first quarter.

By brand, the retail sales of luxury cars in January reached 290,000 units, down 5% year-on-year, an increase of 18% month-on-month, indicating a strong growth trend in the new year of luxury cars; the retail sales of independent brands reached 940,000 units, an increase of 11% year-on-year, an increase of 1% month-on-month; the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands reached 860,000 units, down 17% year-on-year, down 7% month-on-month, which is mainly due to the impact of the local epidemic on the production rhythm of Tianjin and other megacities, inhibiting the increase in production and sales.

New energy vehicles continued to strengthen in January this year, and the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 347,000 units in January, an increase of 132.0% year-on-year and a decrease of 27.0% month-on-month, which is basically the same as the 25% decline in January 2021. "As subsidies continued to decline in January this year, there was a phenomenon of centralized delivery in the new energy market in December. However, compared with 2018 and 2019, the growth of the new energy vehicle market has not decreased significantly. In 2018 and 2019, January was compared to December. Cui Dongshu said that due to the impact of subsidy policies, sales of new energy vehicles were weak in early January, but then there was a clear recovery.

From a structural point of view, the sales of high-end electric vehicle models increased strongly in January, and the trend of low-end is also strong, and the dumbbell structure of the pure electric market has improved. Among them, A00-class wholesale sales reached 105,000 units, accounting for 32% of the pure electric market share; A0-class wholesale sales reached 51,000, accounting for 15% of the pure electric market; A-class electric vehicles accounted for 22% of the pure electric share; B-class electric vehicles reached 101,000 units, down 14% month-on-month, accounting for 30% of the pure electric share.

With the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the sharp rise in the price of basic resources such as lithium mines, new energy vehicle companies will face certain cost pressures. The report released by the Association pointed out that car companies should be able to resolve the pressure, the market price of new energy vehicles is not expected to rise sharply, and the new energy vehicle market will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2022. It is expected that new energy passenger car sales will reach 5.5 million units in 2022, with a penetration rate of 25%.

"In the future, the plug-in hybrid A-class market has a large space for development, at present, BYD has achieved a strong growth, it is expected that the A-class plug-in hybrid can bring more than 500,000 incremental space." At the same time, A-class electric vehicles are also gradually breaking through, which will also bring about a large increment. B-class electric vehicles, due to the significant expansion of production capacity represented by Tesla, leading car companies will bring significant growth in the high-end market. The A00-level market represented by Wuling Hongguang MINI-EV will still maintain a good growth trend, but at present, the cost pressure is relatively large. Cui Dongshu told reporters.