The Ningde era, known as the "King of Ning" by investors, has once again become the focus of the market.
Since the Spring Festival, various negatives in the Ningde era have followed, and the market value has evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan. For the big fall, media analysis believes that there are 3 big pushers behind the scenes.
This weekend, the Ningde era reported the case, and the public security organs quickly intervened. For various rumors such as sanctions, exclusion of the ChiNext weight index, and talks with Tesla, CATL clarified.
After consecutive deep falls, the price-earnings ratio of the Ningde era is still at a high of 114 times. On the other hand, its performance is still beautiful, and at the same time, the vast majority of institutions still give buy or overweight ratings.
(Image from Helo)
"Ning Wang" reported the case, the public security organs have accepted //
At noon on February 13, CATL issued an urgent statement clarifying.
Catalonia times statement said that the recent network platform has appeared in the Ningde era sanctions, was excluded from the ChiNext weight index, and Tesla and a series of malicious rumors, causing market misunderstanding and misinterpretation, affecting the reputation of enterprises, rumors are nothing, groundless, bad nature, Ningde times on February 12 has reported to the public security organs, will be legally responsible for the rumors.
(Picture from the official WeChat screenshot of NINGDE times)
The relevant person in charge of the Ningde era confirmed to the Reporter of the Shanghai Securities Daily that the report on malicious rumors belongs to the territorial report and has been accepted by the public security organs.
In addition, the relevant person in charge of Tesla responded to the Shanghai Securities News reporter on February 13 that it is indeed not true to talk with Tesla.
Sensitive rumor content and timing of release //
The Shanghai Securities News quoted the analysis of securities companies as forcing the "King of Ning" to call the police, mainly because the content of the rumors and the choice of timing are very sensitive, and the "impact is extremely bad."
In the first week after the Spring Festival, the stock price of the Ningde era went all the way down, and the market value evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan.
As the stock price adjusted, some rumors began to appear in the market. Especially this weekend, rumors about "C (Ningde) and T (Tesla) price talks" began to spread.
"Ningde era is the largest company in the chinext board market value, but also the stock with the highest attention in the A-share market at present, the continuous decline has caused general concern among investors, and the destructive power of rumors at this time is huge!" The brokerage source said.
Rumors also chose the sensitive point of cooperation with Tesla. According to public information, the main customers of catheter era include Tesla, Weilai, Xiaopeng, SAIC, FAW and other major car companies. Among them, in the total orders of the CATL era in 2021, Tesla's total installed capacity reached 13.91GWh, accounting for 20% of the total orders of the CATL era last year.
In addition, due to the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, the Ningde era also has the demand for price increases.
"The business negotiations themselves are highly confidential, neither company will leak secrets, and the rumor-mongers are purely ulterior motives." There are brokers who analyze.
Rare bearish by the chief //
Coincidentally, when rumors were circulating, on February 11, an article entitled "How much can the Ningde era fall?" A Quantitative Analysis Perspective" research report brush screen, signed by Wei Zhichao, chief economist of Capital Securities, and Wang Weiran, macro researcher. The report was released at the same time as its personal WeChat account and the Capital Securities Research.
The Securities Times reported that the research report caused an uproar in the A-share market, and the chief economist personally commented on individual stocks, which is extremely rare in the industry.
The main point of the research report is that the trend of Moutai in Guizhou in 2021 has a strong similarity with the trend of the Ningde era in 2022, referring to the trend of Guizhou Moutai, the Ningde era may not have bottomed out in the short term, and it is preferred to ship at a high price. Through fitting, the research report judged that the adjustment of the Ningde era may not be over, and there may still be 20% downside in the future.
According to public information, Wei Zhichao is currently the chief economist of Capital Securities. He has successively served as the head of macro research in Guotai Junan, Huaxia Fund, Anxin Securities and other institutions.
However, soon, Wei Zhichao quickly deleted the report on his personal WeChat public account. The "bearish" Ningde times teleconference originally scheduled to be held at 20:00 on the evening of the 11th was also temporarily cancelled, and the keynote speaker was Wei Zhichao.
"King Ning" fell sharply, and there were 3 big pushers behind the scenes //
On February 11, CATL closed down 5.43% at 489.99 yuan / share, and the latest price has fallen to the annual level. At this point, the post-holiday decline of Ningde Times reached 17.32%, and the market value evaporated by nearly 240 billion yuan.
In the third quarter of 2021, the average loss of the shareholders of the Ningde era reached 1.7823 million yuan, and the latest price has reached 29.19% compared with the high point in December 2021.
Last week, northbound funds accumulated net purchases of 1.005 billion yuan, and the top three net purchases were Ping An, China Merchants Bank and Zijin Mining, with net purchases of 3.131 billion yuan, 2.391 billion yuan and 2.230 billion yuan respectively.
The top three net sales amounts are Cataline Times, LONGi Shares and Ganfeng Lithium, with net sales amounts of 1.988 billion yuan, 1.538 billion yuan and 917 million yuan respectively.
Since the stock price hit a record high on December 2 last year, CATL has fallen for more than 40 trading days, and the market value of the new "ChiNext brother" has fallen from the highest point of 1.6 trillion yuan (December 2, 2021) to the current 1.2 trillion yuan or less.
In fact, shortly after the ningde era stock price hit a new high, it exposed the largest overseas Chinese fund Allianz Shenzhou to reduce the ningde era, the north capital has also reduced its position since the beginning of the year, and overseas ETFs with "Ning" have recently been redeemed because of the killing of the Ningde era, but the leveraged funds still choose to increase their positions.
According to the Securities Times, according to the main views of the market, the decline of the Cataline Era is mainly due to the following reasons:
First, affected by the rising price of upstream power batteries, new energy vehicle companies continue to raise prices, and core customers may "flee";
Second, the emergence of new energy storage solutions, or the impact on the market share of the Ningde era;
Third, overseas central banks enter a period of interest rate hikes, which may suppress high-valuation sectors.
Don't be too pessimistic //
Although the national new energy subsidy in 2022 will be 30% lower than in 2021, from the overall point of view, all walks of life generally believe that the new energy vehicle market as a whole will maintain a high growth trend in 2022.
The agency believes that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles is limited.
On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the company released its 2021 performance forecast, and the net profit increased by 1.51 times to 1.96 times. The agency predicts that its net profit growth rate in 2022 and 2023 may decline for two consecutive years, 80% and 44.76% respectively.
Judging from the company's performance in recent years, it has maintained a high performance growth rate, in addition, the current development of new energy vehicles still maintains a large support, which further boosts investors' expectations for the company's future development.
Most institutions are still bullish //
Although the chief of Beijing Capital Securities announced that it is bearish on the Ningde era, most institutions are still optimistic about its future trend.
In the past 30 days, more than 10 research institutions have issued research reports, and the vast majority of institutions have given CATL buy and overweight ratings, and another institution has given a strong recommendation rating.
UBS released a research report saying that catheter era has ushered in a buying opportunity, with a target price of 700 yuan. In terms of performance, UBS believes that the 2021 financial report of catheter era is 30% to 40% higher than the general expectation, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in 2022.
Huaxin Securities recently believes that overall, the company's performance is eye-catching, the global market share has increased significantly, and its global power battery leadership position has been continuously consolidated through multiple dimensions such as technology, product iteration, and cost advantages, and the company is expected to continue to lead the industry with its strong technology and cost advantages. The company is expected to ship about 130GWh of lithium batteries in 2021, and is expected to more than double the growth in 2022.
Nomura Oriental International believes that the main reason for the rapid growth of CATL's performance is the increase in the penetration rate of global electric vehicles/energy storage systems, as well as the company's effective cost control. The global electric vehicle market will maintain strong growth in 2022, while the company will continue to occupy a leading position in the market, maintain the company's overweight rating, and raise the target price to 722 yuan / share (previously 700 yuan / share), corresponding to 60 times the 2023 EPS.
China Merchants Securities said that the company is in the stage of global expansion, the balance sheet is strong, and the company's strict accounting and financial policies (such as depreciation, after-sales service fees, etc.) are still expected to remain stable in the future. Maintain the "Highly Recommended -A" rating and target price of $680-740.
(Wind comprehensive Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times and a number of institutional research reports)