Per reporter: Sun Lei Dong Tianyi Per reporter: Pei Jianru
In January, the overall shock of the auto sector pulled back.
Image source: Daily Economic News
According to the incomplete statistics of the "Daily Economic News" reporter, in January, of the 77 listed automotive companies (covering 19 multinational vehicle companies, 28 domestic vehicle companies, 19 domestic parts companies, and 11 domestic automobile dealer groups), only 15 listed companies increased their market value.
Specifically, among the 19 international car companies, only 9 companies have a market value of "floating red". Among them, Tesla (TSLA) won the championship for the second time, but the market value fell by more than 10% month-on-month, falling below the trillion-dollar mark; Rivian (RIVN) and Ferrari (RACE) market value fell by more than 30%.
Domestic car companies have entered a pullback state as a whole. In January, among the 30 domestic car companies counted by the reporter, 27 companies experienced a month-on-month decline in market value, a total decrease of 685.403 billion yuan month-on-month. Among them, the top three are BYD, Great Wall Motor (601633. SH) and NIO (NIO.N), rankings remain the same as last month.
In the field of auto parts, only the Ningde era (300750. SZ), Fuyao Glass (600660. SH) and Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) achieved a market value increase, and the total market value of 19 companies in January decreased by 161.551 billion yuan month-on-month.
Affected by the scattered epidemic, the reduction of the number of returnees has led to a slight decrease in the demand for car purchases, and the overall performance of the dealer group is not good. In January, the market value of all 11 domestic auto dealer groups fell to varying degrees, and the total market value decreased by 11.711 billion yuan compared with the previous month.
U.S. stock listed car companies generally fell Japanese car companies performed well
In January, 10 of the 19 international car companies experienced a month-on-month decline in market capitalization, and the total market value of 19 companies decreased by $17.051 billion month-on-month. Among them, the market value of Rivian and Ferrari fell by more than 30%, and the market value of Tesla, General Motors (GM), Lucid Motors (LCID), Hyundai Motor (HYMTF), and Volvo Cars (VOLCAR-B.ST) fell by more than 10%.
In November 2021, the stock price of The Halo Rivian rose sharply after its listing, and after 5 trading days, the stock price rose to a maximum of $179.47, and the market value exceeded the mark of $150 billion, surpassing foreshadowing auto giants such as Ford Motor, General Motors, Daimler, and Volkswagen to become the world's third-largest car company (in terms of market capitalization). However, from doubling the stock price to falling below the issue price, Rivian only took two months.
On January 18, Rivian's shares closed at $73.16 per share, closing below the issue price ($78 per share) for the first time. Prior to this, Rivian announced that by the end of 2021, the company had produced a total of 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920 vehicles, below its initial production target of 1,200 vehicles.
In fact, in addition to lower than expected deliveries, Rivian's recent share price has also been affected by market factors. At a time when yields are rising and the Fed's concerns about continuing to scale back asset purchases in 2022 have led to overall weakness in the market, in addition to Rivian, the stock prices of U.S. listed companies such as Ferrari, Tesla, General Motors, and Lucid Motors have also fluctuated.
Watchmaking: Per reporter Sun Lei
Hyundai's market capitalization in January fell 12.55% month-on-month. On January 25, Hyundai Motor said that its fourth quarter 2021 earnings were lower than analysts expected due to global semiconductor shortages and soaring commodity prices. After the news, Hyundai's stock price fell by 3.6% at one point, the biggest decline since October 1, 2021.
According to Hyundai Motor's financial report, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Hyundai Motor's revenue was 31 trillion won, up 6.1% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected; operating profit increased by 21.9% year-on-year to 1.53 trillion won ($1.28 billion), lower than the average analyst forecast of 1.79 trillion won.
In terms of market capitalization gains in January, Renault Automobile (RNSDF) led the segment, with market capitalization increasing by 17.6% month-on-month. On January 27, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance released the "Alliance 2030 Vision", proposing a number of joint projects and development measures for 2030, using the five general-purpose pure electric vehicle model platforms to create the world's largest pure electric vehicle model supply system, and planning to launch 35 new pure electric vehicle models by 2030.
At present, four of the five general-purpose platforms have been developed and applied to some models. For example, nissan Micra models have been determined to use the CMFB-EV platform, as well as other standardized components. As a member of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, Nissan Motor (7201. T) January market capitalization increased by 8.90% month-on-month.
In addition, Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda Motor (HMC) two Japanese car companies also performed prominently, with their market capitalization increasing by 7.47% and 4.63% respectively in January.
Domestic car companies pulled back as a whole Dongfeng Group led the rise
In January, domestic car companies also generally pulled back. Among the 30 domestic car companies counted by the reporter, 27 companies have experienced a month-on-month decline in market value, and only Dongfeng Group shares (0489. HK) and Evergrande Automobile (0708.HK) achieved significant market value growth, and the total market value of 30 domestic car companies in January decreased by 685.403 billion yuan month-on-month.
Specifically, in January, the share prices of Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.N) and Hong Kong (9868.HK) in "Wei Xiaoli" fell by 30.28% and 32.96% respectively, and the market value decreased by US$13.052 billion and HK$105.164 billion respectively, while the shares of The Hong Kong stock of Ideal Automobile (2015.HK) and the US stock (LI.O) fell by 23.55% and 18.72% respectively, with the market value decreasing by HK$59.7 billion and US$6.2 billion respectively Niolai (NIO.N) shares fell 22.63 percent, wiping out more than $11 billion in market capitalization.
In addition, BYD (002594. SZ), Beiqi Blue Valley (600733. SH), Great Wall Motor (601633. SH) and other companies have also reduced their market capitalization by more than 10% month-on-month.
"Many investors will question the subsequent competitiveness of electric vehicles, and will consider whether production and sales can meet expectations." However, the actual situation is that the subsidy decline is not sudden, and most of it is within expectations, including the time point and the extent of the decline, which is basically in line with expectations. Lu Yaozhi, manager of Minghe Investment Fund, said that the core of the correction of new energy vehicle-related sectors is that the short-term increase is too high, and there is a deviation in the matching degree of valuation and profit growth.
In terms of market capitalization increase, in January, the market value of Dongfeng Group shares increased by 5.79% month-on-month, leading the sector. Credit Suisse issued a research report that dongfeng group management reiterated its goal of 25% sales growth in 2022, and expects passenger cars and commercial vehicles to grow by 28% and 10% year-on-year, an increase much higher than the company's forecast of 3.5% growth in the total automotive industry, and Credit Suisse maintains its "outperform the market" rating.
Evergrande Automobile achieved a 2.35% month-on-month increase in market capitalization in January. On January 12, Evergrande Automobile announced that its first mass-produced vehicle, Hengchi 5, has officially rolled off the production line, 12 days earlier than the original time. As of the close of trading on January 12, Evergrande Automobile's stock price closed at HK$4.03 per share, an increase of 3.33%.
The Ningde era bucked the trend and rose independent parts to usher in the golden age
In January, the auto parts sector also showed a correction. Among the 19 parts and components companies counted by the reporter, only three enterprises, Ningde Times, Fuyao Glass and Ningbo Huaxiang, achieved an increase in market value, and the total market value of 19 companies in January decreased by 161.551 billion yuan month-on-month.
In terms of market capitalization increase, Ningbo Huaxiang led the sector, with its market value increasing by 18.28% month-on-month in January, but its stock price fell by 9.02% month-on-month. It is understood that Ningbo Huaxiang completed a fixed increase in January.
On the evening of January 17, Ningbo Huaxiang issued a non-public issuance report and listing announcement that the company issued 188 million shares at an issue price of 8.61 yuan per share, raising a total of 1.618 billion yuan and raising a net amount of 1.61 billion yuan, and the object of issuance was Ningbo Fengmei Industrial Co., Ltd., a subject controlled by the controlling shareholder and actual controller Zhou Xiaofeng, and the fixed increase fee will be used to supplement the company's working capital.
The market value of CATL in January increased by 0.78% month-on-month to 1,381.262 billion yuan, still ranking first in the sector, more than 7 times that of Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), which ranked second in market value.
On the evening of January 27, CATL released its 2021 performance forecast, which is expected to be 14 billion to 16.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 150.75% to 195.52% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 12 billion to 14 billion yuan, an increase of 181.38% to 228.28% year-on-year, and the performance exceeded expectations, which is also the highest profit level since the listing of CATL in 2018.
Affected by the news of the sharp increase in performance, as of the close of A-shares on January 28, the stock price of Cataltime was 592.60 yuan / share, an increase of 3.06%, the total market value was 1.38 trillion yuan, and the market value increased by nearly 41 billion yuan in one day.
Fuyao Glass's market capitalization in January increased by 0.93% month-on-month. Everbright Securities said in the research report that Fuyao Glass is the world's leading target of automotive glass, and it is expected that its current global and domestic market share of automotive glass sales is about 31% and 70%, respectively, and the smart cockpit is the main driving force leading the rapid growth of the automotive glass market in the next stage, and intelligent electrification may become the catalyst for the company's third round of step-up.
In terms of market capitalization decline, Sanhua Intelligent Holdings (002050. SZ), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074. SZ), Ewell Lithium Energy (300014. SZ) market value fell more than 20% month-on-month in January, and other companies also fell to varying degrees.
In fact, the parts sector has continued to adjust in the past two months. Zheshang Securities previously released a research report that the short-term correction of the parts sector, the plate market has not yet ended, the short-term cycle is upward, the medium and long-term independent rise, the triple superposition of new technology changes, continue to be optimistic about the parts sector market.
Zheshang Securities believes that the independent parts industry ushered in a golden age of development, with the independent vehicle, new forces and Tesla and other car companies on the counterattack of joint venture car companies, the market share of related supporting suppliers is also expected to continue to increase, the competitive pattern of the parts industry is also expected to be reshaped, and the growth stock system should be used to revaluate the sector.
Insufficient pre-holiday market demand The market value of dealers has declined collectively
In January, the market value of 11 domestic auto dealer groups fell to varying degrees, and the total market value decreased by 11.711 billion yuan from the previous month.
Among them, Zhongsheng Holdings (0881. HK) topped the list of domestic dealer market capitalization with 117.873 billion yuan; meidong automobile market value (1268.HK) fell 7.5% month-on-month to rank second with a performance of 37.94 billion yuan; Guanghui Automobile (600297.SH) market value fell 5.99% from the previous month to 20.359 billion yuan, higher than the fourth place Yongda Automobile (3669.HK) 4.292 billion yuan, successfully holding the top three positions in the list.
According to the latest issue of the "China Automobile Dealers Inventory Alert Index Survey" VIA (Vehicle Inventory Alert Index) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Dealers Association), in January 2022, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 58.3%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and up 2.2 percentage points month-on-month, and the inventory warning index was above the boom-bust line.
"The overall market was stable in January. Affected by the scattered epidemic, various localities have advocated the local New Year, and the reduction of the number of people returning to their hometowns has slightly reduced the demand for car purchases. Some regions have introduced policies to encourage automobile consumption, stimulating some automobile consumption, and driving certain sales. The circulation association analyzed that.
According to the dealer inventory early warning sub-index released by the circulation association, the inventory, market demand and average daily sales index of domestic dealer groups fell sharply in January, but the employee index and the operating conditions index increased slightly month-on-month. Among them, the market demand index fell by 17.8% month-on-month; the operating conditions index rose by 4% month-on-month.
"At the moment, the supply of cars tends to be stable, and the inventory level of dealers has rebounded, but it has not yet returned to normal levels. The mismatch between supply and demand caused by low inventories still needs some time to adjust. Coupled with the strict prevention and control of the epidemic, the number of consumers entering the store to buy cars has decreased, but the orders have been concentrated in the past few years, various preferential policies have been narrowed, the terminal price has not been significantly loosened, and the profitability of dealers is good. The circulation association said.
For the trend of the automobile market in February, the circulation association analyzed that due to february as the traditional sales off-season, but also the vacuum period after the Spring Festival, affected by the recurrence of the epidemic, short-term market support is insufficient, coupled with the chip supply problem may continue to be solved until the second half of this year, it is expected that the sales of full-caliber passenger cars in February will be about 1.4 million, down about 40% month-on-month.
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